First, the intelligence of the pilot.
The first half of the year was greatly affected by the epidemic, and the reference significance of financial report data was limited. The financial report in the third quarter was really bright, and the business showed an accelerated development trend, which was also in line with the industrial development trend of the rapid development of lithium batteries and photovoltaic industries. The specific financial report is explained as follows:
First, the business expanded rapidly. Although the net profit in the first three quarters was barely the same as last year, the revenue in the first three quarters increased by 68.5% year-on-year, the non-net profit after deduction increased by 665,438+0.5% year-on-year, the accounts receivable increased by 65,438+000% month-on-month, the prepayments increased by 54%, and the inventory balance was basically the same, but the inventory turnover rate rose sharply, reaching 2.7 times that of the same period last year. The contractual liabilities (accounts received in advance) amounted to 654.38+0.5 billion, up 20% year-on-year and 38% quarter-on-quarter, which basically verified the statement that new orders increased by 83% in the first half of the year (reaching 3.5-4 billion, with a general account period of 333 1). Operating cash flow decreased by 70% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year, but it was still 65,438+0.10.5 billion, which was tight but still within a reasonable range.
To sum up, lithium batteries and photovoltaic equipment benefited from the improvement of industrial prosperity, and the company's business showed a rapid development momentum. The company plans to achieve comprehensive revenue of 654.38+00 billion in 2-3 years (4.7 billion last year, and it is expected to be around 6 billion this year).
Second, the quality of income has improved. Although the company's gross profit margin dropped significantly in the first three quarters, only 33%, which was 65,438+00 percentage points lower than that in the previous quarter (the drop was a little large, so we should pay attention to the later changes), the net interest rate rose by 3.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, returning to the level of 65,438+05.4%, and the return on net assets rose sharply, reaching 8.34%, up by 2.7 percentage points year-on-year. The main reason for the increase in net interest rate is the sharp decrease in R&D expenses. The proportion of R&D in revenue decreased from 65,438+06.7% in the second quarter to 5.3% in the third quarter.
In terms of shareholder structure, HKSCC increased its holdings by 26.74 million shares in the third quarter, and its shareholding ratio increased from 5.22% to 8.24%. Star private placement Ruiyuan Fund has entered the top ten shareholders, holding15.47 million shares, accounting for 1.76%.
Since the beginning of this year, the share price of Pioneer Intelligent has fluctuated greatly. In March, affected by the market environment, it fell from the highest 60 yuan to 34.5 yuan, and retreated by 42% (I gradually opened a position at this stage, reaching out to the left several times to cover the position, with an average cost of about 40); Later, the shock rebounded to 53 yuan, with an increase of 54%. However, due to the increase in the second quarter and the lower-than-expected performance, it fell back to 40 yuan and retreated by 25%. On September 15, the fixed-income plan was put into practice, and Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. took over the fixed-income amount of 2.5 billion yuan, becoming the second largest shareholder of the company, which not only broke the market suspicion of unhappy cooperation between Pioneer Intelligence and Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., but also increased the certainty of the subsequent development of Pioneer Intelligence by deeply binding Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., which also restricted the pioneer management's attention to shareholder value and was conducive to improving the corporate governance environment. The subsequent market performance also verified this judgment, and the stock price fluctuated and went up to the current 60 yuan, with an increase of 50%.
From May 65438 to May this year, I made the following comments on the intelligence of pilots in the article "Deep analysis of the intelligence of outstanding students with defects-pilots".
Half a year has passed, and the previous prediction has been basically verified. We understand the mystery, which is one of the joys of investment. It has deepened my understanding of investment: the logic of long-term investment will be gradually deduced over time, which is predictable to some extent; However, the short-term market performance is unpredictable, which is greatly influenced by stage information, market sentiment, risk preference and other factors, and it is difficult to predict or grasp; The investment enlightenment from the combination of the two is that when a good company with long-term investment logic encounters periodic negative effects that do not affect the long-term logic, it can often have a good layout of the company's price.
The result of loving investment and making money is of course important. What is more important is to establish your own investment system, form your own investment logic, and make your own predictions and decisions based on your personal understanding of the industry and the company. Over time, logic is deduced and predictions are proved. This is a happy process.
Second, Funeng Oriental
Many people may not know the market of this company. He is not as famous as pioneer intelligence, and his company's financial report is also a mess. He has reported a loss after deducting non-net profit for eight consecutive quarters. Why do you care about him? The biggest highlight is the acquisition of Ye Chao Precision, a leading soft battery equipment enterprise, at a fixed price of 6. 1 yuan this year, which was consolidated in May. On July 29th, an investment logic analysis by Wisdom Songde, the leader of lithium battery equipment, which has been ignored, and on September 2nd, Sunrise in the East, Ran Ran Rising, a company with high hopes, made an in-depth analysis of the company. Now let's look at the performance of the third quarter earnings report.
Funeng Oriental's revenue in the first three quarters was 490 million yuan, up 252% year-on-year, and the non-net profit loss was 65.438+02.56 million yuan, but up 35% year-on-year. It looks good, but this is because of the year-on-year growth rate formed by ultra-precision in May. Therefore, we should focus on the ring data. In the third quarter alone, the revenue was 269 million, up 22% from the previous month, but the non-net profit was 4.23 million (the profit in the second quarter was 6.5438+0.753 million), mainly due to the increase in sales expenses of 6.5438+0.085 million from the previous month (probably due to the increase in business expansion and the mismatch of order confirmation time). Management expenses increased by16.02 million yuan (probably because the company headquarters moved from Zhongshan to Foshan with more expenses), and research and development expenses increased by 617 million yuan. These three expenses increased by 33.04 million yuan compared with the second quarter. Therefore, the performance in the third quarter was to increase income without increasing profits, and the overall performance was lower than my expectation.
However, combined with the company's orders and ultra-precision performance commitments, I think the company's third-quarter performance does not fully reflect the company's business development trend, and there is the possibility of hiding profits in stages. First, according to the performance commitment of Ye Chao Precision M&A, the net profit this year is not less than 79 million, with 38.38 million in the first half of the year, and the gap in the second half is about 4 1 10,000. According to the shareholding ratio of 88%, the net profit of returning to the mother can be 36 million, while the net profit of returning to the mother in the third quarter is only 6 1 10,000. 2. From the perspective of ultra-precision orders, the company's orders in hand in the first half of the year were 65.438+48 billion yuan (compared with 65.438+065.438+40 billion yuan in the same period last year), of which the unconfirmed shipment income was 65.438+0.1billion yuan (the equipment was handed over to customers, and the income was confirmed after mass production was qualified), and the contract debt was at the end of the third year. At present, the goodwill formed during the acquisition of Ye Chao Precision shows no signs of impairment. " Therefore, Ye Chao Precision's net profit of about 30 million yuan in the fourth quarter is based on realization.
Daewoo Carving is another core business of the company. With the gradual recovery of the 3C industrial chain and the arrival of the 5G replacement tide, it is expected that the business trend of Daewoo Carving will grow steadily in the next few years. In the first half of the year, Daewoo Jingdiao achieved revenue of 654.38+0.3 billion yuan and net profit of 654.38+0.37 million yuan (both contributed to the second quarter). Therefore, it should not be a big problem for this business to achieve a net profit of 40-50 million for the whole year.
Judging from the composition of the top ten shareholders, Du Huiwen, a new entrant in the third quarter (he also entered the top ten shareholders of Fo Burning Energy, which is also controlled by Foshan in the third quarter), holds 79 1 10,000 shares, accounting for 1.35%, and Huatai Asset Management, a new entrant, holds 5.2 million shares, accounting for 0.9%.
The 1.3 1 100 million shares of Songde Industrial Company held by the original actual controller Guo and its three shareholders were frozen by judicial waiting, accounting for 19.57% of the total share capital. The announcement of reduction will be disclosed on August 15, and centralized bidding will be conducted before February 15, 2020.
Lei Wanchun, the founder of Daewoo Carving, reduced his holdings by 6.78 million shares, and his shareholding ratio decreased from 7.38% to 5.8%. Because he basically no longer participates in the operation and management of the company, he may continue to reduce his shareholding in the future.
Judging from the market performance, the company's share price fluctuated horizontally in the 7-8.3 yuan range for more than three months in the third quarter (I also took the elevator up and down for three months), and recently the contrarian volume broke through the upper edge of the range, which may lead to a trend market. One is whether the market environment can be reversed; Second, the reduction progress of the two former major shareholders; Third, whether the company will launch an equity incentive plan to promote the development of comprehensive business; And fourth, as a platform company of high-end intelligent manufacturing industry, whether Foshan will have new capital operation possibilities in the future. Finally, we should pay attention to the verification of the company's new orders and performance.
Third, Pu Tailai.
Lithium battery equipment business accounts for about 15%, and its main products are front-end core equipment coaters. Generally speaking, Putelai reported a good quarterly report, with revenue of 65.438+45.9 billion yuan in the third quarter, up 654.38+00% year-on-year and 36.5% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit returned to the mother was 2,654,380,900 yuan, up 65,438+02% year-on-year and 65,438+065,438+0% quarter-on-quarter. Compared with the same period of last year, the company's exchange loss in the third quarter increased by 6.5438+0.8985 million yuan. Excluding the impact of exchange losses, the net profit returned to the mother in the third quarter was +265.438+0.36% year-on-year.
The gross profit margin of the company in the first three quarters was 30.4%/ 30.8%/34. 1% respectively, which was significantly improved from the previous quarter. It is estimated that the overall graphitization capacity in Inner Mongolia will gradually increase (self-sufficiency rate will increase from 30% in the first half of the year to 60% in the third quarter), the price of raw material needle coke will drop sharply (30% in the first half of the year) and the volume of overseas high-margin products (LG shipments account for more than 35%). Considering the overall price reduction of cathode this year, Putailai's gross profit margin is still high, which fully shows that the price reduction of cathode is offset by the cost reduction brought by company integration to some extent.
According to the statistics of CIAPS, the company shipped 44,000 tons of anodes in the first three quarters, up 27% year-on-year, with a share of about 18%, of which 2 10000 tons were shipped in the third quarter, up 67% year-on-year and 45% quarter-on-quarter, and the share increased to 19%. The company's anode business is expected to maintain steady growth.
Before, I was optimistic about the main logic of Putailai: First, an excellent management team, strong in capital, management and technology, and strong in road selection. Second, the business of lithium battery anode, equipment, basement membrane and coated diaphragm will develop in coordination, and the vertical integration and expansion of the industrial chain will be strengthened to build a comprehensive service provider for lithium batteries. Third, technology is leading, product positioning is high-end, domestic core customers (contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Limited and ATL) are deeply bound, and overseas customers (LG and Samsung SDI) continue to break through. For details, please refer to May 3 1 In-depth analysis of Putailai, a magical lithium battery platform company.
Judging from the recent market performance, since July, Putelai's share price has shown a wave-like horizontal fluctuation trend, which is inferior to that of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and En Jie. The main reasons are as follows: first, the fixed-income plan has not been implemented, and there is the possibility that the stock price will be suppressed, just like companies such as Pioneer Intelligence; 2. 165438+ 10 On October 3, 240 million initial shares, accounting for 55% of the total share capital, will be lifted. Although there are many uncertain factors in the short term, the upward trend of industrial prosperity is clear and the company's growth is quite certain under the condition of long cycle. I continue to choose the elevator.
Fourth, the analysis of lithium battery equipment industry
As an indispensable tool for lithium battery manufacturing, equipment will directly affect the production cost, production efficiency and product performance of lithium batteries. In the post-epidemic era, the global economic transformation has pushed the supply side of lithium batteries to overweight, and the wave of superimposed car electrification has spawned an outbreak of demand side. As the upstream of the industrial chain, the lithium battery equipment industry is expected to fully benefit.
There are indications that the lithium battery equipment market will usher in great development. According to the forecast of industry organizations, the growth rate of lithium battery equipment industry will remain at around 30% in the next five years. In 2020, the domestic market demand alone will reach 34 billion yuan, and the output value of domestic equipment is expected to exceed 27 billion yuan.
The technological process of lithium battery manufacturing can be divided into the first process (pole piece manufacturing), the middle process (battery cell manufacturing) and the last process (testing and assembly). From the value point of view, the cost of the front, middle and rear equipment accounts for about 35%, 35% and 30% respectively. Among them, the value of coating machine accounts for the highest proportion in the former equipment; Among the intermediate equipment, rewinder and laminator account for the highest proportion; The content detection of chemical components in back-end equipment accounts for the highest proportion.
As the core equipment of the previous process, the coater requires that the stirred slurry can be evenly coated on the metal foil and dried into positive and negative plates. At present, the localization rate of coating equipment has exceeded 80%, and the market share of the top five domestic coating enterprises such as Putailai (Xinjiatuo), Haoneng Technology, Pioneer Intelligence, Wintek (Yakang Precision) and Jinyinhe has reached more than 60% of the total domestic output.
Generally speaking, cylindrical batteries adopt winding process, soft batteries adopt lamination process, and square batteries can adopt winding process and lamination process at the same time. At present, the oligopoly of the winding machine market for lithium battery equipment is becoming increasingly obvious. TOP5' s enterprise leading intelligence, Wintech, Cheng Jiezhineng, ji yang Intelligence and Huaguan Technology have a combined market share of over 90%, of which the leading intelligence market share exceeds 60%.
Lamination technology is an important trend of lithium battery cell preparation technology in the future. At present, major domestic equipment manufacturers are increasing their layout. With the continuous evolution of large size and high energy density of batteries, lamination process will become an incremental process for domestic lithium battery production in the future, and related equipment enterprises are expected to benefit. Among them, Win-Win Technology signed a contract with the internationally leading German MANZ in the field of thermal laminating machine. Funeng Oriental (Ye Chao Precision) is the largest equipment supplier of Funeng Technology, a leading enterprise of soft battery in China, and is ahead of China in lamination technology.
Compared with the front section and the middle section, the technical threshold of the rear section equipment is relatively low, so the current localization rate is relatively high. It is understood that at present, there are more than 40 chemical components and capacity equipment enterprises in China, and the degree of equipment localization is as high as 95%; Among them, Aeronautical Science and Technology, Pilotage Intelligence, Xingyun and Ruineng are the leading companies.
With the development of power battery to high energy density and high quality, it will promote the improvement of equipment technical requirements. Equipment suppliers entering downstream head power battery enterprises will benefit from a new round of power battery expansion and concentration improvement. High-quality equipment suppliers in all aspects of the lithium battery equipment industry chain will usher in a new round of development opportunities, while weak enterprises will be eliminated and the industry will be upgraded in constant reshuffle.
Friends who like articles, please remember to leave a message and forward it. Your encouragement is the biggest motivation for me to insist on sharing.