What is copper scrap?

According to different sources, copper scrap can be divided into new waste and old waste.

_ Old waste: discarded copper-containing products after use, and copper metal obtained after recycling or dismantling is called old waste. Judging from the average recovery period of 15 copper products, China's copper scrap supply is entering a stage of rapid growth.

_ New waste: The waste produced in the process of copper production or utilization is called new waste, which comes from three links: copper smelting, copper processing and finished product production. The new wastes produced at the smelting end include slag and anode mud, and the processing and terminal include industrial defective products and wastes. More than 90% of the new waste will be recycled by our factory or upstream, and will not flow to the market. With the development of technology and the realization of customized size, the output loss of this part of products will become smaller and smaller.

_ New waste and old waste account for about 50% respectively. Because new waste will not affect the balance between supply and demand of electrolytic copper, we mainly pay attention to old waste when studying the supply of domestic waste copper.

What industries are scrap copper used in? Copper scrap can be used in smelting and processing industries.

_ Direct utilization (flowing to the processing end): some wastes can be directly used as electrolytic copper substitutes for copper production without smelting treatment, mainly in two industries: waste copper rods and brass rods. The scrap copper used in the scrap copper rod making industry is mainly bright copper, and the average scrap rate can reach more than 98%, mainly domestic scrap copper; The raw material of waste copper in brass rod industry is waste brass, with an average grade of about 65%, and more than 60% is imported waste brass.

_ Indirect utilization (flowing to the smelting end): Some waste copper needs to be used as a substitute for copper concentrate, and it needs to be smelted into electrolytic copper for users to use, which is called regenerative smelting. The used copper scrap raw materials are mainly imported 1# copper scrap and 2# copper scrap, and the average scrap rate is above 94%. In recent years, due to stricter environmental protection policy and copper scrap import policy, the proportion of copper scrap flowing into smelting tends to decrease, while the proportion of waste used for processing ends increases.

Price trend of scrap copper and refined copper —— Narrowing the difference between refined copper and refined copper price

SMM data show that since the beginning of March this year, the price difference of refined scrap has been shrinking, which has partially stimulated the utilization rate of refined copper market.

What is the future consumption trend of copper scrap?

Affected by environmental protection and price factors, the proportion of waste copper consumption decreased.

_ At the smelting end, about 17% of electrolytic copper output is produced by using waste copper raw materials; At the processing end, 8- 10% of the output of copper processing materials comes from waste copper.

_ From the situation in recent years, the proportion of waste copper consumption has obviously decreased at both smelting and processing ends.

_ At the smelting end, the consumption of scrap copper is restrained by the policy of importing scrap copper and the tightening of environmental protection supervision. At the processing end, the price difference between refined copper and scrap copper is reduced, and the economic benefit of scrap copper is weakened. In addition, due to the influence of domestic environmental protection policies, the proportion of waste copper is also declining.

Which terminal fields do domestic old wastes come from?

Old waste mainly comes from five terminal areas: electricity, household appliances, construction, transportation and machinery and electronics.

_ The source field of waste copper is closely related to the consumption field of refined copper. Power industry is the main consumption field of electrolytic copper and the main source of waste copper. Household appliances ranked second because of their large quantity, followed by construction industry, accounting for nearly 80% of the total.

_ China copper recovery system is decentralized, and the recovery rate is low, about 60%. There are many participants in the scrap copper recycling chain, among which the process of the construction, vehicle, machinery and ship dismantling industries is relatively simple, because the owners of end products can directly deliver the waste products to the dismantling enterprises, while household appliances and electronic products are more complicated.

_ The average recovery life of each terminal is about 15. It is estimated that the peak period of copper scrap recovery will come gradually after 19.

How is the domestic scrap copper dismantling industry developing?

Scrap copper dismantling industry is developing in disorder, and the recovery rate is low.

_ Disassembly is divided into fine disassembly and rough disassembly. The process of manually separating various parts of the product is called rough disassembly, and the process of further crushing and grinding the disassembled copper-containing parts such as motors and circuit boards into a mixture of metal and nonmetal by using disassembly equipment is called fine disassembly. Large recycling plants only carry out rough disassembly, and copper-containing parts such as motors that are difficult to disassemble by hand are mostly disassembled by specialized small dismantling plants.

_20 1 1 year, the regulations on the recycling of waste electrical and electronic products came into effect, and the state began to implement the qualification licensing system for this industry, and set up funds to subsidize the dismantling enterprises of waste household appliances.

This policy greatly promoted the development of the dismantling industry, but later, the funds were not in place, dismantling enterprises reduced their purchases due to financial problems, and recyclers accumulated a large number of recycled old household appliances to dismantle themselves, which caused environmental pollution and formed many irregular and unqualified small dismantlers.

Where is the domestic copper scrap market mainly distributed?

China's copper scrap market is mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Bohai Rim.

Generally speaking, the most developed areas also have the largest output of copper products. At present, China has formed three key areas of dismantling, processing and consumption of waste copper, namely Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim and Pearl River Delta. The amount of copper scrap recovered in these areas accounts for about 80% of the total domestic copper scrap.

The Yangtze River Delta region is represented by Taizhou and Ningbo in Zhejiang, the Pearl River Delta region is represented by Guangdong, and the Bohai Rim region is represented by Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong, forming a number of specialized copper scrap markets with large dismantling and trading volume, such as Luqiao in Taizhou, Zhejiang, Anxin in Hebei, Qingyuan in Guangdong, Yixing in Jiangsu and Suzhou.

The scrap copper markets in Guangdong, Zhejiang and Tianjin are mainly dismantled by imported scrap copper, while the scrap copper markets in Linyi, Shandong, Baoding, Hebei and Miluo, Hunan are mainly dismantled by domestic scrap copper.

China's copper scrap industry is mostly concentrated in the form of parks, which are managed by local governments, mainly including Tianjin Ziya Circular Economy Industrial Park, Guangdong Qingyuan Huaqing Circular Economy Industrial Park, and Hunan Miluo Tongli Circular Industry Park.

What is the domestic copper scrap supply situation?

The growth rate of domestic copper scrap supply is slow, and the proportion of imported copper scrap shows a downward trend.

_ Since China Customs implemented the green barrier action in 20 13, the import of scrap copper has been decreasing year by year. At the end of 20 16, copper prices rose sharply. Because the cost of scrap copper is lower than refined copper, the downstream consumption continues to improve, and the demand for scrap copper increases accordingly. 20 17 copper scrap supply rebounded.

_ In recent years, the domestic supply of copper scrap has been limited, mainly due to the reduction of garbage disposal projects in the State Grid, the limited dismantling of used mechanical and electrical products and the lower-than-expected dismantling of automobiles.

_ China's copper scrap supply mainly depends on imports. In recent years, with the tightening of the policy of importing scrap copper, the domestic scrap copper market has gradually improved, and the proportion of imported scrap copper has dropped from 80% to about 50%.

What will happen to the policy of importing copper scrap in the future?

Main copper scrap policy during 20 17-20 19;

_ 2065438+July 2007 "Implementation Plan for Prohibiting Foreign Wastes from Entering China and Promoting the Reform of Solid Waste Import Management System": gradually and orderly reduce the types and quantities of solid waste imports, and gradually stop the import of solid waste before the end of 2065438+2009.

_ 2065438+April 2008, announcement on the adjustment of the Catalogue of Imported Wastes: Waste motors, including waste motors, wires, cables and hardware and electrical appliances ("seven types of wastes") with recycled copper as the main raw material were adjusted from the Catalogue of Restricted Imported Solid Wastes that can be used as raw materials to the Catalogue of Prohibited Imported Solid Wastes, and from 2065438+2008 to 60.

_ 2065438+In August 2008, the Ministry of Commerce imposed a 25% tariff on copper scrap imported from the United States (mainly due to the trade war);

_20 18 12. Announcement on Adjusting the Catalogue of Imported Wastes: Scrap copper ("Waste Six") was transferred from the Catalogue of Unrestricted Imported Solid Wastes that can be used as raw materials to the Catalogue of Restricted Imported Solid Wastes that can be used as raw materials, starting from July 20 19.

Future policy direction forecast:

_ 1.2020, the import of solid waste will be completely stopped. According to the goal put forward in the Implementation Plan for Prohibiting the Entry of Foreign Wastes, the import of solid wastes with replaceable domestic resources will be gradually stopped by the end of 20 19. By 2020, the "six types of wastes" may also face a total ban.

_2. Recycling of solid waste. Since the fourth quarter of 20 18, the environmental protection bureau, the standard Committee and the recycling association have been promoting the recycling of solid waste. While the import of solid waste is completely banned, some "six types of waste" will be imported separately as resources, thus better promoting the development of recycling industry.

_3. The domestic copper scrap market is improving. While strictly supervising the import of solid waste, we will constantly improve the domestic copper scrap recycling system, strengthen the supervision of the copper scrap industrial chain, establish a copper scrap industrial park with perfect infrastructure, and guide its standardized development.

Will there be a shortage of imported scrap copper?

The policy is tightening, and the import of scrap copper will gradually shrink in the future.

In 20 17, about 52% of the copper scrap imported from China came from "seven types" of copper scrap. From 2065438 to 2008, the import of "seven kinds" scrap copper was gradually restricted, which reduced the total amount of imported scrap copper by 36.7%, but the "six kinds" scrap copper increased, and the amount of imported scrap copper metal only decreased by about 30,000 tons due to the increase in grade. The average import grade of copper scrap in 20 17 was 37%, and it was about 52% in 20 18.

2019-1-February, the physical quantity of imported copper scrap decreased by 27%, while the metal quantity still increased by 1 1% year-on-year.

From 20 19, "seven types of scrapping" are prohibited. Domestic dismantling enterprises can set up factories in Malaysia, Japan and other Southeast Asian regions, dismantle CAT.7 and then import it normally in the form of CAT.6. The imported copper scrap can still maintain a relatively stable supply in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the "waste six categories" will be changed to restrict imports, and the supply shortage will begin to appear.

After 2020, it is very important which part of copper scrap will be classified as a resource for import. No matter how the standards are classified, the amount of imported copper scrap will decrease again.

aluminium scrap

Comparison of price trends between SMMA00 aluminum and scrap aluminum and alloy —— The price feedback of scrap aluminum is relatively slow.

From 20 16 to 20 19, the growth rate of domestic automobile production decreased year by year, and the operating rate of secondary aluminum industry decreased obviously.

In 20 16, the domestic automobile production totaled 28 million vehicles, 29.07 million vehicles in 20 17 and 27.76 million vehicles in 20 18.

The processing rate of secondary aluminum industry in China was 62.48% in 20 16, 60.54% in China in 20 17 and 56.56% in China in 20 18.

After 2065438+2008, the new and planned capacity of recycled aluminum reached 4.324 million tons. In addition to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Guangdong, Jiangxi Province has become the most favored place for recycled aluminum because of its advantages in tax policy.

Distribution of new capacity in 20 18+ secondary aluminum plan

In 20 19 years, the competition in the secondary aluminum industry was fierce, and the price range of ADC 12 was continuously compressed.

After the holiday, the downstream recovery is slow, the overall demand is poor, the cost is rising, and the price range of recycled aluminum ADC 12 is continuously compressed. Poor export prices put pressure on the price of high-end recycled aluminum ADC 12.

In 2065438+2009, about 300,000 tons of imported waste aluminum used for processing with materials cannot be replaced by domestic waste aluminum, but there are still 475,000 tons of imported waste aluminum in general trade, which will be greatly restricted. Enterprises using this part of imported waste aluminum will inevitably join the competition for domestic waste aluminum.

In 2065438+2009, about 300,000 tons of imported waste aluminum used for processing with materials cannot be replaced by domestic waste aluminum, but there are still 475,000 tons of imported waste aluminum in general trade, which will be greatly restricted. Enterprises using this part of imported waste aluminum will inevitably join the competition for domestic waste aluminum.

The increase of domestic waste aluminum supply mainly comes from the increase of imported waste aluminum, among which, according to SMM, the supply of about 500,000 tons of old social materials will increase. Affected by the uncertainty of domestic scrap aluminum invoices, the actual circulation will be reduced.

Influence of manufacturing tax reduction on secondary aluminum industry;

The problem that tax reduction needs to face directly lies in the determination of the tax point of downstream customers' VAT invoices, so as to prepare for the weak downstream market in the first half of the year and maintain the expectation of possible recovery in the second half of the year.

Raw materials: From the perspective of the whole secondary aluminum industry, it has narrowed the starting line between enterprises to some extent. Take Caishui No.201578 as an example, the tax rebate basis point is reduced from 16% to 13%. Calculated by 30% tax refund on demand, the actual tax payment is16-16 * 30% =11.2. When the value-added tax is reduced to 13%, the actual tax paid is:13-13 * 30% = 9.1. The difference between them is:11.2-9.1= 2.1

Processing: With the decrease of capital occupation, the actual processing cost has little influence. The overall net interest rate of secondary aluminum industry is low. Take the most common ADC 12 aluminum alloy ingot as an example, its net profit rate does not exceed 5% of the selling price, and the value-added part has little actual impact. The actual price reduction should be the corresponding reduction in processing fees. Taking the processing fee of 500 yuan/ton as an example, the price reduction caused by tax reduction should be 500*3%= 15 yuan/ton.

Downstream: after tax reduction, stimulate consumption in downstream terminal markets and overseas markets. Before the tax cut, the downstream recovery was postponed, and consumption decreased year-on-year. Take a car with a price of 200,000 yuan as an example. A 3% tax reduction will reduce the price to 6,000 yuan, which will directly stimulate consumption to some extent.

Recover lead

Lead-containing waste-introduction of waste batteries

Lead reduction certification enterprises are mostly concentrated in Anhui and Henan, and there are more certification enterprises in Jiangxi and West Africa.

The production of reduced lead in China is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Jiangxi and other places, and the output varies greatly, especially in Anhui and Jiangxi.

The licensed enterprises of recycled refined lead are mostly concentrated in Anhui and Guizhou, and there are also many non-licensed enterprises in Jiangxi.

Except for Anhui and Hubei, which are close to full capacity, the operating rate in other areas is low, and there is a lot of excess capacity.

Price Trend of Primary Lead and Recycled Lead/Waste Battery —— Narrowing the price difference between refined lead and waste battery

The output of recycled lead increases, and the production tends to shift from primary to regeneration.

The operating rate of secondary lead smelting has obvious seasonal characteristics, which is affected by the price and increases year by year.

There are great differences in the scale and smelting cost of "three no" enterprises, which leads to the proliferation of "three no" refineries.