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What are the reasons for the sharp decline in stocks since August 2009?

Who is shorting A shares?

What is the nature of the sudden adjustment? After nine months of strong rebound, A-shares still faced a "storm" in early August.

After falling 150 points on Wednesday, the market fell another nearly 100 points on Friday.

However, faced with this sudden attack by short sellers, many investors are still obviously at a loss.

So, who opened the "Pandora's Box" of decline?

Who is acting as the "water pump" for stock market liquidity?

What kind of adjustment is this?

Three "butterflies" emerged behind the plunge. Who shook the wings of short selling and triggered a sharp adjustment in A shares?

This is an issue that has been on the table since this decline.

With this question in mind, reporters from China Securities Journal conducted an investigation into people who directly or indirectly control some large funds in the industry.

During the investigation, the reporter found that there are three butterflies shaking the short-seller camp: monetary advocates, insurance redemption funds and private equity harvesting.

"On Monday this week, I asked all customers to clear their positions, especially some large customers. I repeatedly emphasized that the first is to cash out to maintain profits, and the second is not to rush for rebounds. As a result, we escaped Wednesday's sharp drop." A businessman in Shenzhen

Mr. Zeng, the head of the department, said.

Why did he make such a bold and decisive judgment when there were no major negatives and even some favorable conditions?

"It's a long story. When the market adjusted last week, I was still on a business trip. Last Friday, a classmate who was a secretary to the board of directors of a listed company called me and told me that he had liquidated his positions. I asked him why, and he said

An influential market person judged that an intermediate adjustment was about to begin," Mr. Zeng said when introducing his short-selling experience. "According to a classmate, this market person made accurate decisions in October 2007 and the end of 2008.

Many people believe in his judgment, especially with some fund investment directors.” However, Mr. Zeng was unwilling to reveal the identity of this mysterious expert, saying only that he was a typical money person.

Of course, it is obviously difficult for a single person to influence this market on a large scale, and the wind fanned by another butterfly may be greater.

After the market closed on the afternoon of August 10, many institutions received a piece of institutional trading behavior information from a certain securities firm.

This information shows that the scale of insurance redemptions from ETFs and other funds was relatively large that day. Ping An of China redeemed 8 billion yuan, and China Life also redeemed a certain amount.

On August 13, a China Securities Journal reporter confirmed the news through an intermediary channel in the Ping An Asset Management Department.

Some people in the industry speculate that insurance companies have always been relatively accurate in their grasp of the market. The withdrawal of the fire line may indicate that they have seen something that the market has not seen.

(However, according to a person in charge of Ping An Asset Management, the reason why they redeemed 8 billion yuan of funds was because their life insurance products expired, not because they were not optimistic about the market. It is said that this type of life insurance products is 2,000 points

When it was set up, it was originally agreed that above 3,000 points would be cashed out. The problem is that the market does not understand the true intention of the insurance funds, so following the trend becomes a natural choice. "I think the starting point for short selling should be those of us who have earned money.

There are more people. They have made so much, and it’s time to harvest,” said Luo Weiguang, director of Guangzhou New Value Investment, who has achieved remarkable results this year. According to Luo Weiguang, we had already fallen a lot before the big drop on July 29.

The position was reduced to 50% last week. "However, our risk estimate was still not enough. We entered again on Tuesday, and increased the position when the market fell sharply on Wednesday. We suffered a lot of losses." Luo Weiguang regretted it.

He said, "Now we are shifting from defensive warfare to guerrilla warfare, and the market does not have much opportunity. Just withdraw after two days." Tian Ronghua, the "head" of Wudang Asset Management, also said that currently they only have 60% of their positions.

How powerful are the three major "water pumps"? When talking about the reasons for this round of adjustments, Li Daxiao, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said that the pump for A-share liquidity does not lie in the China Banking Regulatory Commission's strict control of capital entry. Instead, it mainly comes from three aspects, namely IPO.

, additional issuance and the lifting of the ban on large and small non-profit companies. So, how powerful are these three pumps? China Securities News reporters also conducted an investigation on this. "The business of large and small non-profit companies has been particularly difficult recently. First, the holders follow the market.

The rise is becoming more and more pretentious. Secondly, the higher the stock price, the greater the amount of funds required for a single transaction," Yu Xuan (pseudonym) of the brokerage business department of a Shanghai brokerage told reporters. He said that when the market fell, large and small businesses were on the contrary.

It’s easier to do, because most of the non-holders are industrial investors, and they are afraid of losing money. “Look at Chenzhou Mining, which I did before. It was more than 7 yuan, and I helped them sell 1 million shares.

But look at the current share price of this stock, which is almost 30 yuan. They have experienced this kind of blood-vomiting experience. Unless the market panics again, they will not sell it at a low price anymore," Xiao Yu said. He still has it on hand.

Panda fireworks vary in size, but the seller's bid will be relatively high, and the quantity is relatively large. If you want to sell it, you have to sell it all, so the amount of funds required is also quite large. Xiao Yu's trading experience was also shared by another private equity reporter.

It has been verified that private equity Mr. Chen said that he has been looking for large and small non-trading opportunities recently, but the resources are much less than at the beginning of this year. If the market does not continue to fall and create panic, there seems to be little pressure for large and small non-profits to cash out.