Since the ruble caused trouble for the US dollar to collect wealth, the international financial market entered a currency chaos in April. The US dollar broke through five integer barriers in a row, and the non-US currencies fell in a mess. A buyer who could definitely buy US dollars was released.

in this case, a lot of international capital must have been converted into dollars, so did it enter the American market?

according to the data of the federal reserve, the net outflow of foreign investment from the stock market and the net inflow of negotiable government bonds and bills have changed obviously. The data came to February this year, when the Ukrainian crisis broke out, which will lead to a question: did the stock capital flow into the bond market, or was the market shuffled? The net outflow from the stock market was on the sidelines, while the net inflow into the bond market was new capital.

At present, this problem is unknown, but there is a solution-dividend tax is required to invest in the stock market in the United States. Of course, a certain country and the United States have negotiated and signed it. For example, for China people to invest in US stocks, the dividend tax rate is 1%, for Canadian, Australian and New Zealand investors, 15% and for Japanese, 1%.

in addition, interest tax is also required for bond investment. If it is directly held, it is not necessary. However, if it is an American bond held through a bond fund or ETF, the interest distributed each time will be regarded as a dividend and must be paid according to the dividend tax rate mentioned above. It will also be withheld and remitted by the account opening broker.

so, it can be queried from the IRS data, but since the United States just started to declare last year's tax some time ago, there is no data now.

if we enlarge our vision, we will make a total of the capital flowing into the United States in the first two months of this year. Compared with the last interest rate increase cycle in 216-218, you will find that there is almost no net inflow of foreign capital in the United States. So where is the money harvested in dollars?

since this time is short, let's analyze the whereabouts of the money raised in the latest round of interest rate hikes. Note that although these capitals have flowed into the United States, the ownership still belongs to the original investors.

Generally speaking, the wealth harvested from US dollars can directly boost the economy through two paths:

First, capital conversion, for example, if gains are made in the capital market, it can be converted into other forms of non-financial investment, and the other is to put it in bank reserves for refinancing, which is sure to be few and the interest rate is high.

the second, and most likely, is the tax directly taken by the United States.

generally speaking, if the final result is included, international capital will pay more attention to the American stock market, and then if there is chaos everywhere, bonds will be more attractive.

According to a set of data, the last time the Federal Reserve raised interest rates (216-218), foreign capital inflows and the net increase of US debt were almost zero, but after the global trade war was launched from the United States, foreign capital inflows increased from 6.2 trillion US dollars to 7 trillion US dollars before the interest rate cut in 219.

According to American custom, the US debt holdings in March or April have not been announced yet, but it is expected to exceed the historical high of 7.7 trillion at the end of last year. If it doesn't happen, there is only one possibility, and the causal cycle under the US sanctions against Russia will be unpleasant.

Back to the topic, the currency chaos in the past month is essentially a purpose. The inflow of foreign capital has accelerated, or the harvest of dollars has started unscrupulously.

The extreme hawks of the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, which was the fuse. The real fuel was not the US dollar, but the Japanese yen, which fell by 11% in seven weeks and the exchange rate fell below 13, a 2-year low. Therefore, many people called the Japanese yen the "worst" currency this year.

The madness of the yen has given the US dollar the biggest assistance, which coincides with the Ukrainian crisis. From the perspective of security, capital will flow into the US debt in large quantities.

If interest rates are raised again, the yield of American bonds will keep rising, and the price of American bonds will keep falling, and the corresponding purchase cost will be lower, which will attract more international funds.

Look at the hollowed-out world now. Currency devaluation can't survive: Argentina borrowed $44.5 billion from the IMF, Lebanon is going to borrow $3 billion for bankruptcy, and Sri Lanka can't make a living by borrowing $3.4 billion, all of which are dollar debts, and these debts will be called the prey of dollar harvest one day.

the economy is too small to carry, but what about the big one? Similarly, there is an interesting set of data-the three-month cross-currency swap between the euro and the dollar has expanded to the highest level since March 8, about 19 basis points.

It can be understood that investors are willing to pay a premium of nearly 19 basis points to borrow dollars on Thursday, and abandon the euro. To put it bluntly, it is necessary to borrow dollars even if the cost of borrowing money is high.

Obviously, investors have no interest in the euro, so the "currency struggle" and the "contribution" of the euro to buying dollars are bound to be enormous.

Of course, although the Japanese yen has greatly helped the US dollar, its influence is not insignificant. In the long run, the IMF's argument is worth recalling-the Japanese yen no longer benefits from the diversification trend of foreign exchange reserves, and it has lost its magic as a safe-haven asset and given way to other currencies.

The US dollar went on a rampage, and the RMB was naturally affected. This month, it depreciated from 6.35 to the present close to 6.7, plunging by 3,5 points. This wave is not small.

There is a demand for RMB depreciation, for example, it is beneficial to export and introduce investment to a certain extent, but the malicious behavior of the US dollar is also indispensable. For example, some of the capital originally invested in RMB bonds may turn to the United States, and the recent stock market decline has little correlation with it.

However, considering the exchange rate changes after the exchange rate reform in 215, despite the sharp fluctuations this time, we have many ways:

i. China People's Bank's foreign exchange reserves (excluding valuation effects)-selling dollars to boost the RMB;

ii. the enterprise lowers its foreign exchange deposits-selling dollars to buy RMB;

ⅲ. The stable and orderly trade surplus plays a supporting role for the currency.

To sum up, it is not difficult to keep the RMB exchange rate stable, but we should be on guard. The Bank of Japan is determined to devalue the yen. This is when the Federal Reserve has not started to raise interest rates crazily, and with the interest rate getting higher and higher, the appreciation of the US dollar will continue.

As a result, more and more countries have been dragged down by the US dollar, and China's economic development for many years is closely related to the world. Finance, foreign trade, investment and so on have been highly integrated with the world. Once similar things happen, China's economy will be indirectly implicated, so that the RMB exchange rate will be unpredictable.

","force_purephv":"","gnid":"9d1f478cdb721969f","img_data":[{"flag":2,"img":[{"desc":"","height":"869","title":"", "url":"/t1562f368da8b235e.jpg","width":"12"},{"desc":"","height":"878","title":"","url":"/t148be67b83726f.jpg","width":"1318"},{"desc":"", "height":"866","title":"","url":"/t1d32e9afcfd7a2a5.jpg","width":"12"},{"desc":"","height":"81","title":"","url":"/t19515b66ca8c77.jpg", "width":"936"},{"desc":"","height":"493","title":"","url":"/t11d18ee69a178c1b.jpg","width":"974"}]}],"original":,"pat":"art_src_,fts,sts", "power by": "cache", "pub _ time": 1651219669, "pure": ","rawurl ":"/6a826e8256decf18a3ae658745fb6 ","redirect ":," rptid ":". "tag": [{"clk": "economy _ 1: IMF", "k": "IMF", "u": "}, {"clk ":"economy _ 1: USD ","k ":"USD ","U ":" {"clk":"keconomy_1: Federal Reserve ","k ":"Federal Reserve ","u ":"}, {"clk": "KEconomy _ 1: American debt", "k": "American debt", "u": "}, { "k": "bonds", "u": "}]," title ":"In order to harvest dollars, the yen "sacrificed itself" to empty the world, and the RMB was attacked by surprise. Is it 22? In the past two years, the yen has depreciated sharply. By 22, I will judge that it will appreciate somewhat. < P > Will the yen rise in 22? -:No, it should! Didn't you find that Japanese goods in China market began to decline? When foreign trade declines, the economy will decline, and the coins will also decline! RMB may appreciate

What will happen to the yen exchange rate in 22-:In the next 2-3 years, Japan is likely to take the initiative to depreciate, and the exchange rate will go down all the way to stimulate the weak economy

Will the yen exchange rate be high in 22-:At present, it will not be high in 22. The reasons for the low exchange rate of the Japanese yen are: firstly, the US dollar and RMB have strengthened against other currencies. Recently, influenced by good economic data and interest rate hike expectations, the US dollar has greatly strengthened, and most non-US currencies have shown a trend of rising against the US dollar ...

Will the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the RMB rise before 22?-:Should it not

Will the Japanese yen appreciate in the 22 Olympic Games?-:Hello! Why not ask about the Winter Olympics in 222? It's just my personal opinion. If you don't like it, don't spray it. Thank you.

Is it possible for the yen exchange rate to rise in these years? The 22 Olympic Games will be held in Japan. Is it possible for this to increase the yen? -:There will definitely be a gradual increase in the next few years. As for the Olympic Games you mentioned, it can push the yen up in exchange, but you don't need to think too much about it if you spend too much. Japan's economy is stagnant, and its economic performance will mainly depend on it in the future.

Do you think the Japanese Olympic Games in 22 will make the yen appreciate? Can the Olympics drive a country's economy? -:The yen will not appreciate but depreciate. Japan is an export-oriented country, and the Olympic recruitment will benefit the Japanese economy. When the natural economy improves, the yen will depreciate accordingly, which is also beneficial to export commodities.

Will the yen rise in the Tokyo Olympic Games between now and 22?-:Theoretically, it will. From the basic news, it will improve their international status and be recognized, which is good for the yen.

221.11115 -It is bound to appreciate, and the depreciation rate of the yen can't keep up with the dollar, because the yen is as low as it can be. Without the improvement of the dollar economy, the global economy is not optimistic in the future. As the chief messenger of the United States, Japan has been wiping the ass of the American economy all the year round, but now the American economy is not improving. What about the Japanese economy? In fact, since 221, Japan's economic entities have been lying in a collective position. If there is no new way to reverse it, Japan's economy is likely to become the victim of the next big dollar drain. The yen needs a big drain, but there is no water to put it, so the yen can only do push-ups, that is, it will appreciate first, then depreciate, and the asset bubble will blow up. Between this rise and fall, the asset bubble will continue to grow, which is the beginning of Japan's economic collapse. ....