The appreciation of RMB means the improvement of the status of RMB and the status of China's economy in the world economy. The wealth in the hands of ordinary people in China is more valuable. With the appreciation of RMB, the money in the hands of ordinary people will be more valuable. China's global ranking of GDP per capita can also be moved forward, and China's foreign debt pressure will be reduced and its purchasing power will be enhanced. Benefits of RMB appreciation: (1) RMB appreciation may mean the improvement of RMB status and the promotion of China's economy in the world economy. 1) The wealth in the hands of ordinary people in China is more valuable. With the appreciation of RMB, the money in the hands of ordinary people is more valuable, and China's global ranking of GDP per capita can also be moved forward. 2) The reduction of China's foreign debt pressure and the enhancement of its purchasing power. For example, who is paying to maintain the daily operation of the American government, which is known as the "global boss"? The natural answer is the taxpayers in the United States of America. This answer is not all right. Because the current US federal government has a huge fiscal deficit, the contribution of taxpayers alone is not enough, so it has to borrow a lot. And who is the biggest creditor? It's Japan and China. China's foreign exchange reserves of more than $3 billion, a large part of which is bought by US government bonds. China became one of the biggest creditors of the most powerful empire in the world. This fact itself shows China's growing economic strength and international influence. Last year, China's contribution to global economic growth was second only to the United States; Its contribution to global trade growth is second only to that of the United States and Japan. * It is a good thing that the RMB, whose economic strength speaks, naturally gains a greater voice in international affairs. 3) Conducive to the development of import industry: Shao Jinyang, deputy director of China Petrochemical, said in an interview: "If the RMB appreciates, overseas assets will be cheaper for us." If the RMB appreciates by 5%, the cost of oil imported by China Petrochemical in 23 will be reduced by more than 1 million US dollars at the current price. (2) The prospect of RMB appreciation is becoming clearer and clearer. This is because, just as the policy of artificially overvaluing the value of the RMB was forced to give up before 1994, artificially underestimating the value of the RMB is also unsustainable, because on the exchange rate issue, although policy intervention can work for a while, the market has the final say. As long as China can maintain high economic growth and promote the full convertibility of RMB, it will not be long before RMB appreciates and becomes a regional and even world currency. At present, there is not enough evidence to show that China's economic growth will suddenly stop in the near future; China's monetary authorities have repeatedly stated that the RMB will be fully convertible. In fact, the rising journey of RMB has already begun, starting with the sharp depreciation on January 1, 1994. In this year, the official exchange rate of RMB converged to the market exchange rate, from 5.8 yuan to 8.7 yuan in the previous year, with a depreciation rate of 33%. From then until the end of last year, according to the statistics of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the nominal appreciation of the RMB relative to the US dollar, the euro (before 1999, it was the German mark) and the Japanese yen was 5.1%, 17.9% and 17% respectively. Considering inflation, the real appreciation was 18.5%, 39.4% and 62.9% respectively. The results calculated by the International Monetary Fund also reflect the same trend. Even so, at present, it is not realistic to try to induce the RMB to appreciate sharply. Disadvantages of RMB appreciation: (1) Affected by RMB appreciation, China's economic growth will slow down. It is manifested in three aspects: 1) RMB appreciation will affect China's foreign trade and exports. The appreciation of RMB will increase the price of China products, increase the cost of capital investment, and bring about the decline of the competitiveness of China's export products, thus causing the domestic economic depression. The appreciation of a country's currency brings about the decline of the competitiveness of its export products, which leads to the depression of its domestic economy. On this issue, Japan has a bloody lesson. In 1985, in order to curb the export frenzy of cheap Japanese goods, the financial leaders of the United States, France, Germany and Britain took corresponding measures to force Japan to sign the "Plaza Agreement", thus forcing the yen to appreciate by 3%. Since then, in the ten years from 1985 to 1996, the ratio of the yen to the US dollar has risen from 25: 1 to 87: 1, with an appreciation of nearly three times. The "Plaza Accord" is recognized as the chief culprit of Japan's economic recession. Now Japan just wants to pass this tragedy on to China. 2) It will also affect the comprehensive competitiveness of Chinese enterprises and many industries. Because although "Made in China" has become the main product in the world market, a fatal weakness of China products is that they have not yet formed their own brands. At present, their market share is mainly due to the low price of China products, and they are not in a dominant position in the competition. It is terrible if their competitiveness is hit. The biggest finding of this survey by China Entrepreneur is that 82.4% of enterprises believe that the change of RMB exchange rate will have an impact on their business activities. For enterprises that are active on the economic stage in China, the RMB is just like air and water. For example, Huang Hongsheng, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Skyworth Group, the boss of a large exporter of color TVs in China, is worried about the prospect of appreciation. He believes that most of China's exports are low-tech products and few are high-tech products. If RMB appreciates, China's international status may be improved, but the global competitiveness of manufacturing industry will gradually lose. He calculated that if the RMB appreciates by 1%, it means that the export price has increased by 1%, while the profit of domestic manufacturing enterprises in China is only about 5%, and with some financial discount, the average profit level of enterprises in China is less than 3%. How can an average profit margin of 3% adjust the appreciation pressure of 1%? There will definitely be a large-scale loss. Taking Skyworth as an example, Huang Hongsheng outlined the highest psychological bottom line for China enterprises to appreciate the RMB: "Now it is difficult for us to make a big improvement in the American market, largely because the prices of other world factory products are as low as ours. For example, color TV sets from Mexico and products from Europe and Turkey are very cheap, so it is impossible for us to raise a dollar. We hope to increase sales by 3 million US dollars in the US market this year, but if the RMB appreciates, then this plan will be aborted. " Another example is: compared with manufacturing enterprises, those foreign trade enterprises that are at the forefront of exchange rate risk are the strongest perceptors of change. For export-oriented enterprises, the volume of exports is much larger than that of imports. Therefore, Huang Hongsheng said that the appreciation of RMB would cause a devastating blow. Huang Fangning, assistant general manager of Oriental Scientific Instruments Import and Export Group, told reporters an example of losses caused by the appreciation of the euro-that is, the depreciation of the RMB. At the beginning of 23, they had a deal. At the time of signing the contract, the exchange rate between the euro and the US dollar was still 1:.9. By the time of delivery, it had risen to 1:1.1. They didn't take any measures to lock the exchange rate, so they lost money. "Even if we have an intermediate profit of 1% or 2%, it will not be worth the loss of appreciation. I can only make it up myself. " For another example, some multinational companies that used to produce in China may transfer their investment to Mexico or Malaysia. In the 198s, Taiwan Province also experienced the current pressure from China. After the exchange rate of Taiwan dollar rose from 1:4 to 1:25, some traditional low value-added industries moved to Dongguan. Similarly, some experts have analyzed that if the RMB appreciates, these traditional industries will be transferred from Dongguan to less developed areas such as Central Asia and Vietnam. Originally, there are still many areas in China, such as the west, which can accommodate these industries. However, because the currency adjustment is aimed at all enterprises, China may be forced to experience the process of industrial hollowing out early. 3) It will also undermine the long-term development of China's economy and bring China's finance closer and closer to the edge of the crisis. The appreciation industry may ruin the good investment environment that China has worked hard to create for many years, and the new overseas investment will be reduced, and the driving force of China's economic growth will be greatly reduced, because such investment will become relatively expensive. On the other hand, the speculative activities of international hot money may increase, which makes China's finance closer and closer to the edge of the crisis. For example, from the Mexican financial crisis to the Asian financial crisis, it is obvious that the governments of these countries adopt high interest rate monetary policies to absorb domestic funds, but the effect is counterproductive. Due to the lack of internal funds, a large number of international hot money inflows have been attracted, which has led to the deviation of capital flow and the contradiction in capital structure, which has buried the hidden danger of currency crisis; At the same time, the contradiction that the inflow of foreign capital pushed up the exchange rate of the local currency triggered the exposure of economic structural problems, or a bubble economy or an economic downturn, which forced the implementation of the policy of depreciation of the local currency, which directly led to the transaction risks in the money market and the securities market, and eventually triggered a financial crisis. What is the financial crisis? This is like a family that was originally poor, and a very rich relative came and brought them a temporary "rich" life. Therefore, outsiders lent this family a huge sum of money because of its wealth, but the rich relatives of this family suddenly disappeared, leaving this family with only high debts, which led to friends who borrowed huge debts. At that time, the crisis was everywhere. It can be seen that if the RMB appreciates, it will lead to: due to the lack of internal funds, it will attract a large number of international hot money inflows, which will lead to a contradiction in the capital structure and bury the hidden dangers of the currency crisis. 4) Also, the appreciation will inevitably lead to the prevalence of speculation: due to the rapid increase of national wealth expressed in US dollars, the stock market and real estate reached a climax, some "bubbles" further expanded or created new "bubbles", and polarization continued to expand. For example, many retail investors in the United States have opened RMB savings accounts in the local area, hoping that one day changes in the RMB exchange rate system will benefit them. Of course, these retail accounts are not real RMB accounts, because according to China's non-convertible exchange rate system, it is illegal to open RMB accounts overseas. They open savings accounts denominated in RMB. The deposits in the accounts are US dollars, but based on the spot exchange rate of RMB, these accounts will appreciate or depreciate due to the fluctuation of the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar. Frank Trotter, CEO of Everbank, said the company's move had a great response among some customers. These customers have been asking for RMB-denominated accounts since the RMB exchange rate began to show signs of imbalance more than a year ago. Everbank launched this new account on July 1st, and in the following weeks, it invested more than $6.5 million in this kind of account.