Full text of research report: The policy-driven comprehensive restoration market continues steadily. Since last week, policies, economy, exchange rate and geo-environment are expected to improve rapidly. The market has shifted from emotional panic trading to game trading based on policy expectations. The correct buying point of the comprehensive repair market has been determined, with steady rhythm and continuous and flexible configuration. On the one hand, judging from several constraints in the early stage, in terms of policies, after the "Twentieth National Congress", ministries and commissions made intensive statements, and the specific policy picture became more detailed and clear; Economically, the epidemic prevention measures are constantly refined and more accurate, and the future economic recovery is expected; On the exchange rate, the RMB is desensitized to the Fed's interest rate hike, and the fear of capital outflow quickly eased; Geographically, the recent intensive diplomatic contacts have released positive signals, and the geopolitical environment is expected to improve rapidly. On the other hand, from the behavioral characteristics of investors, the northbound capital outflow trend has been reversed. Since June 5438+00, active private placement positions have remained low, and the market has the characteristics of active capital pricing. Private placement and transactional foreign capital return are important marginal forces. The market is currently in the first half of the policy-driven comprehensive repair market, and it is expected that the market driven by fundamentals and valuation switching will relay in the second half of the year.
Since last week, policies, economy, exchange rate and geographical environment are expected to improve rapidly.
1) After the 20th National Congress, ministries and commissions made intensive statements, and the specific policy picture became more detailed and clear. 165438+14 October, Liu He, Vice Premier of People's Republic of China (PRC), published a signed article in People's Daily, proposing to organically combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening structural reform on the supply side, and put forward seven key points. Ministries and commissions have also given specific work and reform directions for the guidelines of the 20th National Congress. Liu Kun, Minister of Finance, published a signed article entitled "Perfecting the Modern Budget System", which clarified the key measures to further deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system. The two sessions gave clear guidance on improving the policy system, maintaining currency stability, promoting economic growth, providing high-quality capital market services, high-level scientific and technological self-reliance, and preventing and resolving major financial risks. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the in-depth implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy, the construction of a modern industrial system, the steady promotion of "double carbon", and the security of food, energy resources and important industrial chain supply chains. The Ministry of Commerce clearly put forward to expand domestic demand, promote the construction of modern circulation system, enhance the basic role of consumption in economic development, promote high-level opening up to the outside world, and accelerate the construction of a trade power. The learning attitude of the ministries and commissions after the 20th National Congress fully embodies that "development is the top priority of the party in governing and rejuvenating the country, and the focus of economic development is on the real economy".
2) The epidemic prevention measures are constantly refined and more accurate, and the future economic recovery is expected. 1 1.5, the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council held a press conference with the theme of "scientific and accurate prevention and control of epidemic situation", which emphasized the problem of scientific and accurate prevention and control of epidemic situation, and demanded to improve the level of scientific and accurate prevention and control, prevent simplification and one size fits all, and resolutely rectify layers of overweight. Recently, in order to be more scientific and accurate, and avoid indiscriminate control and restrictions, epidemic prevention policies have been revised in many parts of the country. For example, Inner Mongolia emphasizes that "cities can't be controlled and restricted endlessly without discrimination, so that they can gradually regain their vitality", Henan emphasizes that "risk areas should be defined scientifically and accurately, and the whole community can't be closed for a long time without discrimination because of the' burning point' of individual epidemics, so that cities can gradually regain their vitality", and Gansu emphasizes that "epidemic prevention and control can't be simplified, across the board and overweight at different levels". The actual landing level of epidemic prevention policy revision has been intensively adjusted in many aspects, such as nucleic acid frequency, airport and railway station inspection, and accurate division of risk areas. On the whole, with the continuous refinement and precision of epidemic prevention measures, the negative impact of the recent epidemic on the economy is expected to ease, and the future economic recovery is expected.
3) RMB is desensitized to the Fed's interest rate hike, and concerns about capital outflow have eased rapidly. Although this FOMC meeting shows that the Fed continues to maintain a hawkish stance, the future interest rate hike path map has become clearer. The overseas macro group of CITIC Securities Research Department predicts that the interest rate increase will slow down to 50bps in June 5438+February, and the height of this round of interest rate increase may be above 5%. The Fed's interest rate hike meeting did not lead to another devaluation of the RMB exchange rate. Since June 5438+ 10, the Chinese and American stock markets have ended the same fluctuation. At present, the RMB exchange rate and A-shares are more dependent on the market expectations of China's economy than the actions of the Federal Reserve. The rapid net outflow of allocated foreign capital ended in stages, with a cumulative net inflow of 3.34 billion yuan from June 5438+065438+1 October1April, and the fear of capital outflow quickly eased. Judging from the position of the Sino-US economic cycle, it is very likely that China's economy will gradually improve in the fourth quarter of this year, ending the continuous 1 multi-year downward cycle. In order to clear the labor and job market with obvious imbalance between supply and demand and curb inflation, the United States may need to continue to raise interest rates until recession. At the beginning of next year, there is a high probability that China and the United States will have another cycle dislocation, and China will go up to the United States and down. This round of RMB exchange rate depreciation trend has basically ended.
4) The recent intensive diplomatic contacts have released positive signals, and the geopolitical environment is expected to improve rapidly. After the 20th National Congress, the party and state leaders have frequent contacts with political figures of various countries. 165438+1On October 4th, German Chancellor Angela Schultz led a group of business leaders to visit China, which largely dispelled the market's anxiety about the decoupling between China and Europe after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In addition, it can be seen from the diplomatic contacts after the 20th National Congress that China has closer cooperation and exchanges with countries along the Belt and Road. 2023 is the anniversary of the implementation of the "Belt and Road" strategy 10, and China will have closer cooperation and economic construction with countries along the route.
The market has changed from emotional panic trading to game trading based on policy expectations.
1) The capital outflow trend in the north has reversed, and private placement positions have remained at a low level since 10. In June, 65438- 10, the cumulative net inflow to the north was 4 billion yuan, of which 3.3 billion yuan was allocated, which reversed the continuous net outflow in the previous two months. The influence of foreign capital on the marginal pricing of its main trading stocks has obviously weakened recently. 1 1 In the first four trading days, the total turnover of foreign capital and the sales turnover were 12.9% and 6.6% respectively, which were 3. 1 and 2.4 percentage points lower than1respectively, and had fallen to the level before September. According to the statistics of private placement network, the overall position distribution of private placement products in June 5438+ 10 continued to maintain low positions, and private placement products with positions above 80% in June 5438+ 10 accounted for 59%, down more than 20 percentage points from August.
2) The market presents active capital pricing, and private placement and transactional foreign capital return are important marginal forces. At the end of the third quarter, the positions of common stock, partial stock and flexible allocation in active public offering were 89.0%, 86.7% and 72.5% respectively, and the overall positions were still at the middle and high level. According to the calculation of the quantitative group of CITIC Securities Research Department, since the end of the third quarter, the positions of the above three types of funds have changed by +0.63, -0.04 and+1.06 percentage points respectively, but they have not decreased. The public offering of new funds is still in a downturn. On June 5438+00, the issuance scale of equity products was only 65.438+0.76 billion yuan, which was 50.654.38+0% lower than that in September, among which the active products were 65.438+0.365.438+0 billion yuan, which was only 55.2% of the issuance scale in September. In the future, the short-term incremental funds in the market will come more from active private placement and transactional foreign capital return. According to the channel survey data of CITIC Securities, the active private placement position has remained at a historical low of 68% for three consecutive weeks, only 3-4 percentage points away from the position at the end of April this year. The expectation of economic recovery will also catalyze the return of transactional foreign capital to the North. Judging from the historical law, in the stage of rapid economic recovery, transactional funds can quickly flow into 60-80 billion yuan in a single season, which is also an important marginal force affecting the market.
3) At present, the market is in the stage of game trading based on policy expectation. In 2022, the third quarterly report of A shares continued the bottom characteristics of the interim report, with a slight decline. Judging from the current high-frequency economic data and some industry surveys, there is still great uncertainty about whether there will be a significant improvement in the fourth quarter. At present, it is difficult for investors to drive investment and allocation based on fundamental logic. The adjustment of the central economic work conference at the end of the year, the two sessions in early March next year, and the possible adjustment of the subsequent epidemic prevention policy are all events that need to be observed. In addition, in terms of market liquidity, the environmental characteristics of active capital pricing are obvious. On the premise of low valuation and low position, market participants are more willing to play around policy expectations. In late September, the new medical infrastructure (medical equipment and instruments), the independent control of 10 (semiconductor+innovation) and the relaxation of the game epidemic control of 1 1 were all based on long-term expectations.
The buying point on the right side of the comprehensive repair market has been determined, and the rhythm continues to be stable.
Since last week, policies, economy, exchange rate and geographical environment are expected to improve rapidly, and the correct buying point for this round of comprehensive restoration, which is expected to last for several months, has been determined. At present, the market is still in the initial stage of the first half of the year driven by policy expectations. It is expected that the market will continue its steady and progressive pace, and the varieties with policy catalysis and high valuation flexibility will be mainly allocated. The market driven by fundamentals and valuation switching is expected to relay in the second half of the year. At present, it is suggested to pay attention to the selection of specific varieties: ① growth and manufacturing fields, focusing on the white horse leading enterprises in the semiconductor and military industries that have been continuously adjusted before and have room for valuation switching next year, and new chemical materials with weak label attributes and high valuation and cost performance under the environment of increasing external scientific and technological sanctions. ② The pharmaceutical industry focuses on traditional Chinese medicines with high cost performance, medical devices benefiting from new medical infrastructure, scientific research devices benefiting from discount loan policy, and medical devices and services that are fully absorbed by valuation and policy concerns. (3) The vocational education sector promoted by the policy of giving priority to people's livelihood and employment after the 20th National Congress.
Risk factor
The local epidemic has repeatedly exceeded expectations; The friction between China and the United States in the fields of science and technology, trade and finance has intensified; Domestic policies and economic recovery progress are less than expected; Macro liquidity at home and abroad has tightened more than expected; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has further escalated.