The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.28% to close at 3033.9 points.

The main tone of the market is this kind of stalemate consolidation around 3,000 points.

If you stretch the A-share trend chart over the past 10 years, you can see that the 3,000 points of the Shanghai Composite Index seem to be a central axis in a geometric sense.

Around the dangerous peak of 3,000 points, bulls and bears have experienced countless battles on this bridgehead but have not yet completely conquered it.

In the minds of market participants, 3,000 points seems to be the recognized central axis of value. Near this point, any rational institutional investor would not dare to say that the valuation is too high or too low. A reasonable valuation plus multiple

The game between the short sides reaches equilibrium at 3000 points.

September is coming to an end, and public fund managers who are preparing to sprint for fourth-quarter results have restored to the Economic Observer reporter the logic and context of deciphering the 3,000-point game theory in their investment map.

Gaming pressure at 3,000 points "The continued consolidation of the market is due to the fact that the three major factors of profitability, interest rates, and risk preferences have entered a phased equilibrium pattern." The investment director of Cathay Fund said bluntly in an interview with reporters on September 20 that now

The equilibrium pattern is not unexpected.

"The rebound has lasted for seven months since February this year, but every time it exceeds 3,000 points, the center of the game, the pressure for the index to continue rising increases sharply." As a practical fund manager, the investment director analyzed, "First

The second time was on April 13, when the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3141 points and then experienced a major adjustment; the second time was on August 16, when the index touched 3140 points and then continued to fall for more than 8 trading days,” he said frankly.

The game of points can be defined as a certain interval, not a strict quantitative standard.

Since many retail investors and even institutional investors in the A-share market are technical investors, once the index exceeds 3,000 points, there will be a psychological shock, and big funds often take concerted actions, so that everyone can buy gold and make this situation

The point becomes an insurmountable psychological barrier.

Even though the PPP concept and some hot topics have been extremely active in the market recently, the above-mentioned investment director seemed very calm. “From a realistic point of view, there are really no exciting topics in the market that are worthy of big funds to risk chasing. The real estate market may become a game variable in September.

In the early morning of the 22nd, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes, but hinted that it may tighten monetary policy before the end of the year. The above expectations add more uncertainties to the equilibrium game around 3,000 points in A shares. In theory, fund managers have long-term concerns.

You can make money by investing in the A-share market, but in a period when the stock market is too competitive, if you want to stand out in the year-end ranking competition, you still need some swing operation skills. Now is such a period.

In an interview with a reporter, the manager expressed his pessimism about uncertainty, “The current market is either high or low, and many macro factors are uncertain. It is highly probable that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the fourth quarter.

Since the beginning of this year, the domestic real estate bubble caused by excessive currency has spread to the point where housing prices in third- and fourth-tier cities have basically reached their limit. Although we cannot guess when housing prices will fall, we are not sure that there will be no problems, let alone

It is expected that it will get bigger and bigger. It is also a kind of gaming wisdom to quit waiting and watching when nothing can be seen clearly.

"This fund manager with a background in financial engineering believes that due to the complexity of the financial system and the limitations of human cognitive abilities, many situations cannot be distinguished, and not everything in the future can be predicted. If you are not sure, quit waiting and watching.

It’s okay. In an interview with reporters, the fund manager of China Investment Morgan also believed that the excessive rise in housing prices will become an important variable in the 3,000-point game. He said, “Because housing prices are rising too fast, it will be difficult to see the central bank taking action in September.

The loose action is still focused on the implementation of project investment.

In the context of high volatility, investors should use multiple assets to reduce the volatility of their own portfolios, and increase the allocation proportion of US dollars or US dollar-related assets on the basis of allocating domestic financial assets.

"The fund manager does not recommend using 3,000 points as an investment benchmark, but should pay more attention to the Hong Kong stock market. "The expected increase in U.S. interest rates has a negative impact on global liquidity. The current valuation of Hong Kong stock companies is still about 20% cheaper than A shares, which is at a historically high level.

It is at a low level, and its US dollar-like attributes can avoid possible risks of currency depreciation. It is expected that the opening of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect will gradually converge the valuation differences between the two places. It is recommended to pay appropriate attention to Hong Kong stocks.

"Where are the opportunities to make money? In the process of short-term market competition around 3,000 points, CCBIT Fund pays more attention to the excess alpha returns brought by structural investment opportunities. "From a macro level, liquidity expectations are relatively consistent, the overall pattern is loose, and short-term

The Federal Reserve has postponed raising interest rates; the economy is cold at the macro level but hot at the micro level, the fall in demand is relatively mild, and the supply side is increasing; there are objective demands for support, and attention is paid to the advancement of domestic and foreign fiscal policies.

Pay attention to cyclical products in the short term, and thematic investment opportunities such as PPP and state-owned enterprise reform are worthy of attention.

"Bosera Fund also does not believe that there is a lack of money-making effect under the 3,000-point game pattern.