Compared with traditional stocks, real estate, bonds, gold, etc. Blockchain assets are a very abstract and virtual asset form. Blockchain assets represented by bitcoin are a very professional computer language and program running mode. There is no country's credit behind it, and no enterprise gives it the benefits of securitization. It all depends on mutual trust between strangers. In this case, although the decentralized operation logic has been completed, its experiment has been completed.
2. The price of blockchain assets fluctuates violently.
Because there is not much physical support, many blockchain projects rely entirely on community operations and market speculation. It is difficult for investors to hold blockchain assets from the perspective of value investment, resulting in frequent capital flows and price fluctuations. Has become a normal state. A blockchain-related token can soar by 500% in one day or drop by 90% in a few hours. This drastic price fluctuation is beyond the ordinary investors' tolerance.
3. The uncertainty of national policy is too great.
As an underlying technology, blockchain has basically accepted its value around the world. However, as a "by-product" of the blockchain, the policies of various countries in digital currency are still controversial, and with the increasing transaction volume of digital currency, its influence on the global financial market is increasing. At present, the daily trading volume of the whole digital currency area exceeds 60 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to that of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges in China, and can also be compared with the average daily trading volume of the new york Stock Exchange. It is impossible to continue to operate outside the supervision, so there is a very large regulatory game cycle, and countries will introduce policies in this regard one after another, and the impact on the market cannot be ignored.
4. Various blockchain projects are mixed together.
Blockchain technology is a very basic architecture technology. At present, due to the global pursuit of funds, many project parties that have nothing to do with blockchain have begun to use the concept of blockchain to design products, and can complete the writing of blockchain white paper in a very short time, and then raise market funds. In this case, the technical threshold of the entire blockchain has been lowered. Many companies that don't have the strength and willingness to develop blockchain at all, just for the support of funds, play the concept of blockchain, leading to the proliferation of projects, and the gap between projects is getting bigger and bigger, while ordinary investors are difficult to distinguish and easy to fall into the trap.
5. Speculation is not equal to blockchain investment.
At present, there are many views that blockchain and digital currency are a whole, and you can't develop blockchain technology and suppress digital currency at the same time. I agree with this logic, but speculation is not the same as investment in the real sense of blockchain. What really has investment value must be something with scarce supply. Sending a digital currency casually can represent the application value of the blockchain and bring some innovations to the society. Then you can randomly find a blockchain technical team that can send digital currency, and you can send dozens of digital currency in a short time, just change the name. Therefore, digital currency itself has little logical relationship with blockchain assets. Blockchain projects must be a very scarce market, but there is no big scarcity in digital currency. This is like saying that any Internet company can develop a chat software similar to WeChat, but the chat software itself is of little value. The real value lies in how many people participate in the chat software. Digital currency is just a chat software. At present, everyone is speculating on this software, but few people care about what is on it. The bubble is obvious.
6, short-term overheating, easy to be used by criminals.
The particularity of the blockchain industry is that many of its ecosystems have become very financial. In the whole operation process, funds will be very concentrated, and most links are related to funds. From ICO capital allocation, to sending tokens to investors, and then to online trading on the exchange, users buy and sell tokens on the exchange, and the whole process is almost a financial link. If the practitioners are unprofessional, lack of self-discipline and lack of supervision, then every link may be used by criminals to manipulate the market and obtain all kinds of illegal income.
7. Governments have different intentions in dealing with the development of blockchain.
In order to catch up with the next round of financial technology and digital revolution, Japan is very open to transactions such as Bitcoin. Digital currency transactions denominated in Japanese yen account for half of the global legal tender trading area, and Japan hopes to use digital currency to revive its financial competitiveness. The United States hopes to tame Bitcoin with mainstream financial markets such as futures option derivatives market, making it another powerful tool for dollar hegemony. China is also working hard to promote digital currency's sovereignty encryption, one of which is to promote the internationalization of RMB. Digital currency and blockchain assets may become the point of the next big country's game and competition, which invisibly increases the systemic risk of investors. It is difficult for you to know what unexpected policies will suddenly emerge behind this big country game and what impact it will bring to the whole market.
8. The threat of quantum computers
Blockchain produces a self-motivated system to ensure that it can run itself under decentralized conditions. Most of them use asymmetric encryption, and transactions signed by private keys are verified by corresponding public keys to ensure that blockchain assets such as Bitcoin can only be used by legitimate owners. But quantum computer can solve the problem of asymmetric encryption. The quantum computer can calculate the private key from the public key in a few minutes. People who own quantum computers can consume digital currency such as Bitcoin at will after they know all the private keys. Of course, when the quantum computer will come out is also a question in itself, and the digital currency protocol is constantly adding new encryption standards, but the potential threat brought by the quantum computer has to attract investors' attention.
9. There is a possibility of a major reversal at the supply and demand level.
The market value of the blockchain token market hovers around $1 trillion. Although OTC funds are still pouring in, the stability and growth rate of its capital inflow are in doubt. Encrypting digital currency's supply is a very embarrassing thing. From the perspective of a single digital currency, the total amount is strictly limited. For example, there are only 2 1 10,000 bitcoins, but the threshold for issuing encrypted digital currency is getting lower and lower. Anyone and any organization can distribute encrypted digital currency anytime and anywhere, and the supply is almost unlimited. On the other hand, the increasing transaction costs restrain the demand side. At present, investors need to pay the handling fee at the exchange and pay the handling fee to the miners when transferring money. If countries start to levy taxes on digital currency transactions in the future, it means that this market will bear more operating costs and will not generate its own profitability. If the supply level continues to improve, the overall market supply and demand expectations may change in the opposite direction at some point.
10. Blockchain assets lack legal protection.
It is not uncommon for digital currency Stock Exchange to be hacked around the world, and all kinds of off-exchange and on-exchange transactions are fraudulent. The legal protection for investors is very limited. Especially for domestic investors, it is almost impossible to effectively recover digital currency once it is stolen or tricked into trading. Because there is no intermediary guarantee from banks, digital currency is fully responsible for its own security, which conforms to the logic of self-preservation of private property, but it also brings great uncertainty to the storage and transaction of assets in digital currency. Before there is a complete legal system to protect the rights and interests of individual digital currency assets, the legal security of investing in blockchain-related assets is a very serious problem.