On April 20th, US crude oil futures in May fell to negative value, which shocked the whole financial market. In addition, the TD premium of gold is also expanding in the negative zone. On April 7, the TD premium of gold once hit -20.26 yuan, setting a historical record.
Gold TD premium refers to the difference between gold TD price and account gold price. For example, on July 3rd1day, the current gold TD price is 425.75 yuan/gram, and the account gold price is 442.39 yuan/gram, so the gold TD premium is-16.64 yuan. Generally speaking, the price difference between them is within plus or minus 4 yuan. Whenever the deviation rate of the price difference is too large, the market will gradually return to the equilibrium value. However, this year's TD premium of gold fluctuates greatly, and even if it is temporarily repaired, the spread will expand again. In fact, before the TD premium of gold fluctuated downward, the premium once soared upward. On March 16, the TD premium of gold rose to 16.20 yuan, which also set a new record.
As for the causes of TD premium of gold, it is mainly divided into the following points:
I. Exchange rate
Account is a market-making mechanism. Banks provide investors with buying and selling prices and accept investors' buying and selling requirements according to the quotations. The account gold price is the benchmark international gold price, while the international gold price is USD/oz. Account gold is directly converted into RMB/gram on the basis of USD/ounce. TD is a free quotation with price priority and time priority, and the transaction method of matchmaking transaction is quoted in RMB/gram.
When the exchange rate of the US dollar fluctuates greatly, the price conversion between the two can easily widen the spread. On March 20th, the US dollar index hit a new high of 102.99 since 20071October, 2065438+65438+1October, and began to fall deeply. At the same time, the TD premium of gold has gone out of the downward trend of oscillation, that is, it has been expanding in the negative region. The depreciation of the dollar corresponds to the appreciation of the renminbi, which weakens the demand for the preservation and appreciation of gold TD quoted in renminbi, resulting in a lower premium.
Second, demand.
In April, in the European and American physical gold markets, the physical gold price exceeded 1.800 USD/oz earlier than the spot gold price. As investors snap up gold bars and coins, they are even willing to pay an extra premium of more than 10%. But the physical gold in Europe and America is still out of stock. At that time, the overseas COVID-19 epidemic broke out rapidly, the external stock market plummeted and melted, and the economic prospect was very uncertain. Many central banks have introduced ultra-loose policies to stimulate the economy. With the decline of real interest rates in Europe and America, physical gold is in short supply, which stimulates the price of gold denominated in dollars to rise.
However, the latest data of China Gold Association shows that in the first half of this year, the national gold consumption was 323.29 tons, which was 38.25% lower than that in the same period of 20 19. Compared with Europe and the United States, China lifted the blockade on the epidemic earlier and resumed production in an orderly manner, which promoted the gradual recovery of China's economy and reversed the decline of the A-share market. In particular, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to the 3000-point mark, which awakened the long-dormant bull market in investors' hearts. Therefore, domestic funds also tend to flow to the A-share market, which weakens the attractiveness of RMB-denominated gold TD. The demand for gold in Europe, America and domestic markets is different, which leads to different gold prices in different regions.
According to the fluctuation law of price difference, the extreme premium will eventually return to the equilibrium value. On April 7th, after the TD premium of gold fell to -20.26 yuan, it oscillated back to the equilibrium value area, and once rose above the positive value, reaching a maximum of 1. 15 yuan, that is, the TD premium of gold rose by 2 1.45438+0 yuan. At present, the TD premium of gold is approaching the previous low again, reaching the lowest of 19.62 yuan, and the premium may return to the equilibrium value at any time. In addition, the current gold price has maintained an all-round rise that broke through the historical record, highlighting investors' growing concern about the global economy. If the real interest rate in the United States continues to fall, it will further boost the price of gold.
In terms of funds, as of July 3 1 day, the current position ETF——SPDR Gold Trust Fund, the world's largest gold ETF, was 124 1.95 tons, setting a new record continuously. Gold ETF continues to attract capital inflows, which is one of the forces behind the continuous rise of gold prices, and it also means that there is still room for gold prices to rise. In addition, Goldman Sachs Group issued a bold warning yesterday that US policies are causing "devaluation concerns" of the currency, which may end the dominant position of the US dollar in the global foreign exchange market. Goldman Sachs also raised its 12-month gold price forecast from $2,000 per ounce to $2,300.
Therefore, investo
Related Q&A: What is gold TD? At present, what is done internationally is spot gold, and the leverage is between 50-500 quilts. The bigger the lever, the better. 100-200 is enough. The key is risk control. Basically, MT4 software is used to make gold in three aspects: 1. Fund management; 2. Technical analysis; 3. mentality; Mentality is the most important thing. In fact, foreign exchange is not so complicated, but people's psychology is too complicated. Doing foreign exchange is a trading system with probability and high probability, and then it is implemented mechanically. The key is whether it can be consistently and resolutely implemented. Every transaction is independent, and people's psychology is always nothing more than forgetting the past. This requires constant training. When it is carried out mechanically, it is not far from success.