This paper points out that some investors pursue hot funds; Lack of sufficient understanding of the fund; Mainly express two meanings:
First, investors lack understanding of fund risks and think that buying funds is to make money. In 2020, many new citizens will enter the market, which is a big year for capital. Buy any fund, as long as they don't buy Nuoan Fund after July 15, they will make money. Taking the hybrid fund with flexible allocation of Nuoan and Xin as an example, the half-year income is -9.86%, which is more than 44% different from the half-year income of Jing Shun Great Wall Emerging Growth Hybrid Fund (34.65%).
Second, investors don't know enough about the trend of the fund's heavy stocks: many people don't even know that the essence of the fund is the stock portfolio. Of course, the funds mentioned here are stock funds that most people buy. The essence of a fund is that you pay a management fee of 1.5% and let the fund manager buy you a stock portfolio. So unfortunately, those investors who invited Manager Cai to buy Nuoan Fund after July 15, 2020, lost 9.86% in the past six months.
Recently, there has been a joke circulating on the Internet: the one who makes money is Manager Cai, and the one who loses money is called Vegetable Dog. In the recent week, A-shares plummeted, and Manager Cai's two Nuoan funds fell by 8.38% and 7.59% respectively, ranking at the bottom of similar performance rankings: 3082/3 140, 301140. It is estimated that his name has changed back to vegetable dog among the basic people.
This manager Cai is Cai Songsong named by Xinhua News Agency. At present, it manages two Nuoan funds: Nuoan Growth Hybrid Fund, Nuoan and Xin Flexible Allocation Hybrid Fund. The latest data shows that the scale of the two funds is 32.776 billion yuan and 82.1700 million yuan respectively, totaling about 4 10 billion yuan.
Then, why did Xinhua name Manager Cai, the two Nuoan funds, which contained greater risks? Because of poor performance in the last six months? Of course not. Fund managers with poor performance are far less than manager Cai.
Xinhua News Agency named "Manager Cai" for a reason. The original text said: "In just one year, the management scale of two funds managed by Cai Songsong, a hot search fund, has increased by 33 billion yuan, but these two funds have always been in heavy positions in the semiconductor sector. The scale of centralized management of funds in such industries is expanding, which contains great risks, and investors should be extra cautious. "
Translated into vernacular, this sentence means that manager Cai has absorbed 33 billion yuan in gold in the last year, but only invested heavily in the stocks of the semiconductor sector, so it is "very risky".
Where are the risks? Just look at the trend of manager Cai's heavy stocks: Nuoan Growth Mixed Fund, with a scale of 32.776 billion yuan. The term of office of Manager Cai is 2065438+February 20, 2009. The top ten stocks are Weir, North Huachuang, SMIC, Sanan Optoelectronics, Zhao Yi Innovation, Zhuo Shengwei, Changdian Technology, Zhongwei Company and Sheng Bang.
Another Nuoan and Xin flexible allocation hybrid fund, the scale is 82170,000 yuan, and the term of fund manager Cai is 20 19. The top ten stocks are: Changdian Technology, Weir, Beifang Huachuang, Zhuoshengwei, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Innovation, Zhongwei Company and Sheng Bang.
Careful readers will find that there are nine stocks in the 10 positions of these two funds, so the trend is basically the same: in fact, this is that Manager Cai bought nine semiconductor stocks from the beginning of 20 19 and spent 40 billion. This is the "extreme style" mentioned in the Xinhua News Agency article. If it is well said, it is "extreme style", which is similar to the "one shuttle" of many investors.
This kind of investment is to concentrate funds again and spread risks. When the fund's heavyweights are on the rise, the performance of this fund is very good. Once the trend of fund heavyweights changes, it is very risky.
Therefore, from March 20 19 to July 2020 15, Manager Cai had a good life. At that time, wearing the aura of "Dr. Chip Design", the performance of Nuoan Fund was very good. He is a star manager, and his popularity is comparable to that of Zhang Kun and Glen now. The citizens affectionately called him "Manager Cai".
However, the stock market has changed suddenly. After July 15, 2020, Manager Cai's Nuoan Fund began to plummet: from the highest 55.87% in July 14 to 7.23% in July 10/October 23, with a plunge of 48% in just three months. If you don't understand the guidance of people in the stock market in the past three months, then increase your position. Therefore, many people who bought the Nuoan Fund last year wanted to cry.
Why is this happening? Because the semiconductor stock bubble of Manager Cai's heavy position began to burst, the performance of his heavy position during the resumption of trading: Weil shares: from 253 yuan to 167 yuan, a decrease of nearly 40%; Zhuo Shengwei: From the highest 7 18 yuan to 330 yuan, the waist is cut; The trend of the nine heavyweights is similar. As a result, the performance of the two Nuoan funds plummeted by 44%, and the people who bought the funds suffered heavy losses.
Why does Xinhua News Agency come out to warn of risks now? Because manager Cai has great courage. After months of turmoil, he began to raise embarrassing stocks. For example, Weir shares: the issue price is only 7.02 yuan, and the semiconductor design company hit a new high of 328 yuan a few days ago, and it was pulled to a market value of nearly 300 billion, which is staggering: you should know that SMIC's current market value is 443.5 billion.
Xinhua News Agency said that it was "risky", and it was clear that the bubble of manager Cai's heavy stock was too big and would burst one day.
Even the National Semiconductor Industry Fund has started to reduce its holdings of companies with big bubbles, such as Zhao Yi Innovation. Of course, this does not mean that the country does not support the semiconductor industry, and the country will still vigorously support the development of China's semiconductor industry, but this does not mean supporting the stock price bubble of semiconductor companies. Up to now, the bubbles of these companies can no longer be explained by performance-driven.
How big is this bubble? How risky is the fund? Because the bubble is stirred up by investors, hot money and capital, after the bubble bursts, there will be chicken feathers everywhere: for example, in July last year, Shanghai Silicon Industry, which was wildly hyped, had the highest share price in 69 yuan, and now it is 3 1 yuan.
There is nothing new in the stock market and nothing new in the base market. When the stock peaked and the bubble burst, it was always the people who knew later who paid the bill. Last year, old investors were looking at these semiconductor companies with hundreds of billions of market value and wanted to see how they shipped. In June this year, 5438+ 10, they saw fund aunts and new citizens swarming into the market. Old investors who have experienced the 20 15 stock market crash will instantly smile and feel relieved.
In fact, there is more than one manager Cai in the fund market now, and more than one Nuoan fund holds a batch of stocks.
Recently, it has been circulated on the Internet: the world's three famous villages, Romannikondi, Lafite and Yifangda. The world's three major chip bases: Silicon Valley, Treasure Island, Taiwan Province Province and Nuoan Growth, as well as three major battery bases and three major condiment manufacturers.
Now the state restricts the subscription and upgrading of popular funds in order to accurately "bomb" and control financial risks; The central bank has also noticed the risk of fund group speculation, and will never let this bubble continue in 20021,so those who understand my article should read the meaningful sentence of Xinhua News Agency: "The risk is great, investors need to be extra cautious."