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What impact will the bursting of China’s property market bubble have on funds?

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From February 18 to 21, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar ranged from 6.1073, 6.1103, 6.1146 to 6.1176, falling for four consecutive trading days.

In this regard, Hong Hao, a researcher at the Securities and Futures Research Institute of the Central University of Finance and Economics, said that the depreciation of the RMB has the greatest impact on the real estate market. He believes that the real estate bubble will begin to burst this year.

Honghao said that the recent sharp depreciation of the RMB is related to the Fed's reduction of QE3, China's economic growth slowdown, the correction of emerging market exchange rates and the recent statements of the People's Bank of China.

In the short term, expectations for RMB depreciation will continue to rise.

Honghao believes that the real estate industry will be most affected by the devaluation of the RMB.

"China's real estate bubble is beginning to burst, and a large amount of excess real estate will be thrown into the market. When the real estate bubble bursts, the operating costs of all walks of life will drop significantly, which is conducive to the healthy development of all industries in China." Honghao said that for the financial services industry

Generally speaking, after the real estate bubble bursts, the financing costs of all industries will fall.

He believes that China's financing costs have been too high in the past 10 years. The main reason is that all funds have flowed to the real estate industry, pushing up financing costs. When the real estate bubble bursts, financing costs will fall.

In addition, the depreciation of the RMB can reduce the amount of plundering of China's wealth by the United States and Japan through quantitative easing.

In addition, Honghao pointed out that the recent decline in the stock market was affected by the depreciation of the renminbi on the one hand and the plunge in real estate stocks triggered by the beginning of a decline in housing prices.

"In the medium to long term, China's real estate bubble will burst in 2014. From then on, the real estate industry with severe overcapacity will enter a long downward channel, and real estate stocks will also enter a long-term downward trend. Therefore, the long-term decline of real estate stocks may also lead to bank stocks.

It will be affected to a certain extent, which will be detrimental to the stock market in the mid-term. However, there will be a technical rebound after the short-term stock market decline," Honghao said.