Financial statistics for April released by the People's Bank of China on May 11 showed that RMB deposits decreased by 460.9 billion yuan in April, an increase of 552.4 billion yuan year-on-year.
Among them, household deposits decreased by 1.2 trillion yuan, non-financial corporate deposits decreased by 140.8 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 502.8 billion yuan, and non-banking financial institution deposits increased by 291.2 billion yuan.
This means that the money in the hands of residents in April was 1.2 trillion less than in March. Where did the money go?
There may be several reasons: 1. Seasonal factors The decrease in residents' deposits in April was affected by seasonal factors.
Because at the end of the first quarter of every year, commercial banks will increase their deposits in order to meet assessment targets, but at the beginning of the second quarter, these deposits will fall back.
Judging from historical data, residents' deposits will decline to varying degrees in April every year.
Taking April as an example, the decrease in resident deposits of 1.2 trillion this year was less than that in 2017 (a decrease of 1.22 trillion), 2018 (a decrease of 1.32 trillion) and 2021 (a decrease of 1.57 trillion).
In addition, April is also the period for paying personal income tax and corporate income tax, which will also cause deposits from residents and the corporate sector to flow to the fiscal department.
2. The willingness to invest in financial management has picked up. Some experts believe that the decrease in residents’ deposits in April reflects the rebound in residents’ willingness to invest in financial management.
Because as the capital market and financial management market improve, some residents will convert their deposits into other financial assets, such as stocks, funds, gold, etc.
Judging from the data, the scale of bank wealth management in April increased by 1.2 trillion yuan to 26.2 trillion yuan from March, ending the downward trend for five consecutive months.
Among them, the existing scale of wealth management companies increased by 1.3 trillion yuan from March to 22 trillion yuan, and has basically returned to the level at the end of January.
At the same time, the price of gold also rose rapidly in April, rising from about 270 yuan per gram to about 290 yuan per gram, hitting a new high in the past eight months.
This may also attract some residents to buy gold-related products.
3. Impact of early repayment of mortgage loans Some experts believe that the simultaneous decrease in residents’ deposits and loans in April may be related to the early repayment of mortgage loans by some residents.
Because in an environment of falling interest rates and rising housing prices, some residents will choose to use idle funds or other financial assets to pay off or reduce their mortgage loans, thereby reducing debt costs and risks.
Judging from the data, household loans decreased by 241.1 billion yuan in April, of which short-term loans decreased by 125.5 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans decreased by 115.6 billion yuan.
Medium and long-term loans mainly refer to mortgage loans, and their decrease illustrates the phenomenon of residents repaying their mortgages early.
In addition, the real estate market also cooled down to a certain extent in April.
According to agency estimates, the month-on-month growth rates of newly built commercial housing transactions in 50 first-, second-, third- and fourth-tier cities in April were -14%, -24% and -35% respectively. Real estate sales in April were significantly higher than those in the first quarter.
weaken.
This may also affect residents’ demand for new mortgage loans.
I believe these factors are reasonable responses to the current economic and financial environment, and also reflect residents’ expectations and confidence in the future.
As the economic recovery deepens, the scale and growth rate of residents' deposits are expected to gradually stabilize.