The first round: the interest rate increase period is 1983.3— 1984.8, and the benchmark interest rate is raised from 8.5% to1/0.5%.
The second round: the interest rate increase period is 1988.3— 1989.5, and the benchmark interest rate is raised from 6.5% to 9.8 125%.
The third round: the interest rate increase period is 1994.2— 1995.2, and the benchmark interest rate is raised from 3.25% to 6%.
The fourth round: the interest rate increase period is 1999.6—2000.5, and the benchmark interest rate is raised from 4.75% to 6.5%.
The fifth round: the interest rate hike cycle is from June 2004 to July 2006, and the benchmark interest rate is raised from 1% to 5.25%.
19 dollar exchange rate trend
1. The Federal Reserve Bank of the United States is the Federal Reserve and the core institution that guides the direction of the dollar policy. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is mainly responsible for formulating monetary policy, including issuing eight key interest rate adjustment announcements every year. Its 65,438+02 members are composed of government officials, governors of new york and local federal reserve banks.
2. The U.S. Treasury Department is responsible for issuing U.S. government bonds and making budgets. The U.S. Treasury has no say in the country's monetary policy, but its comments on the dollar may have a greater impact on the exchange rate of the dollar.
3. The federal funds rate is the most important interest rate indicator in the United States, and it is also the overnight lending rate between savings institutions. When the Fed wants to express a clear signal of monetary policy to the market, it will announce the adjustment of interest rates, which will cause great fluctuations in the stock, bond and money markets. In addition, the price of the federal funds rate futures contract directly reflects the market's expectation of interest rates.
4. The discount rate is the interest rate at which the Federal Reserve issues loans to commercial banks. Although this is a symbolic interest rate indicator, its change sometimes expresses a strong policy signal. The discount rate is usually lower than the federal funds rate.
5.30-year treasury bonds, also known as long-term bonds, are the most important indicators to measure inflation in the market. The decline in bond prices caused by inflation, that is, the increase in yield, may put pressure on the dollar. Nowadays, with the implementation of the US Treasury's plan of "borrowing new debts to repay old debts", the position of 30-year bonds as the benchmark has gradually given way to 10-year bonds.
6. At different stages of the economic cycle, some economic indicators have different effects on the US dollar, such as labor force report, consumer price index, gross domestic product, international trade level and industrial production indicators. When inflation does not pose a threat to the economy, strong economic indicators will support the exchange rate of the US dollar. When the threat of inflation to the economy is obvious, strong economic indicators will suppress the exchange rate of the US dollar. In addition, financial or political turmoil in emerging markets will also push up the price of dollar assets. At this time, dollar assets as a hedging tool will indirectly push up the dollar exchange rate.
7. Eurodollar refers to dollar deposits deposited in banks outside the United States, and its spread can be used as a valuable benchmark for evaluating foreign exchange interest rates. For example, the greater the positive difference between the deposit interest rates of Eurodollar and Euroyen, the more likely the exchange rate of Eurodollar against Japanese yen will be supported.
8. The three most important stock indexes in American stock market are Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has the greatest influence on the exchange rate of the US dollar, showing a highly positive correlation.
Will LPR change? There are all kinds of voices. Does anyone understand?
It is not objective to look at things from the perspective of conspiracy theory. If the future interest rate is bullish, choose a fixed interest rate; If you are bearish on future interest rates, choose floating interest rates. Worldwide, interest rates in most countries are very low, and developed countries are generally around 1 2, or even negative. After more than 20 years of rapid development, the current economic growth in China is obviously weak and has entered a stable period. In the long run, it is inevitable that interest rates will fall to better meet the needs of the economy and the market. Our bank interest rate has a lot of room to go down, and it should reach the level of developed countries within 10 years. If the current economy is overheated and inflation is serious, interest rates will rise in order to control investment. So, is our economy overheated or too cold now? I say responsibly that the era of high interest rates is gone forever, and our interest rate will soon hover around 3 for a long time. Simply put, if your mortgage interest rate is greater than 4 and your loan life is greater than 65,438+00 years, you can change it to floating without hesitation, which can save tens of thousands of interest of 65,438+00. There are no employees in the bank who will not change it to floating. This is the ultimate answer to this question, and no refutation is accepted.
Recently, everyone is discussing whether to change it, and I have been paying attention to the comments of various immortals. Personally, if the remaining term is within ten years, the original interest rate can be changed to Lpr, and if it exceeds ten years, it will be fixed. My understanding is that Lpr is declining at present, and it will slowly adjust after five years of recovery. You can return to your original contract interest rate in five years at most, so there is little change and no pressure.
10 years or more, if you choose a fixed one, it is clear at a glance how much you have to pay each month. You don't have to worry about the uncontrollable increase in interest rates. Mine is 30 years, and the interest rate is 5. 14%. I chose the fixed one. I am a financial white. I just feel comfortable knowing how much money I need every month when I choose a fixed one. As for interest rate cuts, there will be no more. Even if it's too much, I'll try my best to pay it off.
Whether the previous mortgage interest rate should be changed to LPR mode is now controversial and controversial, which is not so mysterious.
First of all, the future mortgage interest rate will adopt LPR model. That is, on the basis of the five-year loan interest rate, add or subtract points. Since the five-year loan interest rate is not fixed, it will fluctuate according to various factors, so the loan amount of each period will also change accordingly, for example, it is 4.8% in the near future. If it floats to 4.7% in the next period, of course, the mortgage in this period will be 0. 1 percentage point less, and vice versa.
Second, the previous mortgage interest rate was the benchmark interest rate of the central bank rising or falling, but after changing to LPR mode, the previous mortgage interest rate will not change, but in different ways. For example, the previous mortgage interest rate was 4.9%, and after changing to LPR mode, it was 4.8% plus 10 basis point, which is the same, but it will change according to the fluctuation of the five-year loan interest rate.
Third, why change it? Only senior people in the central bank know that it is estimated that the mortgage interest rate should be separated from the loan interest rate to set up a separate item, which is convenient for the central bank to reduce RRR and cut interest rates.
I have great doubts about this provision of the central bank:
Take the loan with floating interest rate 10% as an example. The interest rate before conversion is 5.39=4.9( 1 10%), and the interest rate after conversion is 5.39=4.80.59. In other words, if you add more points in the future, you should add 0.59.
The benchmark here is 4.8, which is 2065438+the five-year benchmark interest rate of the central bank in February 2009. But when we signed the contract, we signed a loan for more than five years, and the applicable benchmark interest rate was 4.9. However, when calculating the bonus, we calculated it according to 4.8. What's even more strange is that I took out a loan in 2065438+2009, when it was 30% off, and here I am. [Covering my face] I chose to fix everything in a rage, at least I know how much I should pay back in the future, and now the interest rate is also historically low, and I can still accept [yi tooth]. I don't know how many people feel the same way.
Look at the interest rate of your previous loan. If it is too high, I suggest you change the market interest rate. If it is low, I suggest not changing it. If you have a five-year repayment plan, change the market interest rate.
Middle school philosophy says "look at the essence through the phenomenon" Don't dwell on the economic situation, national policies and other appearances, let me analyze the essence for you.
What is the main business of a bank? Absorb deposits, lend, and eat interest difference.
At present, the bank's deposit interest rate is 1.5%, and the interest rate of time deposits over five years is about 3.5%. Plus the operating costs and profits of the bank, your mortgage, that is, the five-year loan LPR, is 4.8%.
Now we assume that LPR continues to fall below 4%, so according to the current algorithm, the current deposit interest rate is close to 0, or even lower than 0. If this happens, how can the bank deposit money? Without deposits, who will give them money for loans?
In the future, the diversified development and intensified competition in the financial industry will inevitably increase the deposit interest rate of banks, which means that the cost of banks will increase, so it is very necessary to improve LPR in order to ensure the profit rate. This does not include the average annual growth rate of M2. Do you think the interest rate will fall under the background of continuous oversupply of money?
So you say LPR may rise? Or is it possible to be healthy?
The time to modify lpr is getting closer and closer. Whether lpr should be revised or not, my personal opinion is that the loan interest rate above 5% should be changed to lpr, and it makes little difference whether it is changed or not.
The reason for this is the following：
1.1 lpr is the best lending rate, which may decrease in the short to medium term, and its level is not simply related to inflation.
Throughout the developed countries, Japan, Europe and America, lpr is very low. On the contrary, countries with poor economies have higher lpr. As a country with rapid economic development, the probability of lpr going down is very high. At present, the loan interest rates in developed countries are 0- 1% in Europe, 1.5-2.5% in the United States and 0.5%- 1.5% in Japan, all of which are relatively low and have certain reference significance.
Therefore, with the development of economy and the increase of capital flow, the probability of lpr going down in the short to medium term is very high.
Of course, many people are worried about inflation, which has existed for several years, but we can see that after the introduction of lpr, it did not rise because of inflation within one year, but declined. In the past few decades, inflation has always existed, and the loan interest rate has fallen instead of rising. Therefore, the rise and fall of lpr should not be simply determined by inflation.
The domestic policy is "internal circulation", the interest rates of consumption and loans follow the downward trend of the policy, and the probability of banks subsidizing enterprises with more loans is increasing.
The national policy is internal circulation, requiring consumption, encouraging production, and lowering the deposit and loan interest rates, so that more enterprises are willing to lend.
The sharp rise in loan interest rates is an extreme situation, which is inconsistent with the development of domestic economic policies. At the same time, your house may not live for 30 years, the principal is getting less and less, and there are inflation factors. Even if it rises at a certain time, it will not increase too much burden.
3. The higher the LPR, the less money the bank makes.
Many people on the Internet claim that the lpr ordered by 18 bank will increase the lpr in order to make more money. This view is incorrect.
Because banks earn spreads, it is enough to earn spreads stably. If the lpr is raised at will, the higher the lpr, the higher the loan interest rate, which leads to the increase of mortgage and corporate loan interest rates. Then fewer and fewer people and enterprises lend to banks, and the income of banks will decrease.
Therefore, banks will not promote lpr at will, and it must be formulated by the market.
To sum up:
If your own interest rate is very low, for example, below 5%, I think it is the same to choose anything, and there is little difference. You can also choose a fixed interest rate and lock in a low interest rate.
If the interest rate is higher than 5%, it is an excellent choice to choose lpr from the perspective of the future economic development of the country, the interest rate development trend of developed countries and the domestic policy tendency.
The United States has printed so much money this year that our country will certainly follow suit, so inflation will be the mainstream in the future, and banks will inevitably take measures to avoid risks. It's a little too much to pay 5000 yuan now. In another ten or twenty years, five thousand dollars will be worthless. Maybe 5000 yuan will be a meal in ten years, and the bank thinks so. Why is the current 5000 yuan the same as the future 5000 yuan? I obviously have the tool to modify the interest rate, why not use it? Now you pay 5 thousand a month, and you want to pay it back in ten years Nice try. .
The bank can't get up early, so I choose a fixed interest rate.
If the original mortgage interest rate is between 4. 1%-6.3%, it is recommended to change it!
After changing to LPR interest rate, it mainly depends on whether the original loan interest rate is favorable enough. After the conversion, the annual preferential interest rate can continue to fluctuate slightly every month.
At present, many property buyers are struggling with two issues related to LPR interest rate transfer:
The original interest rate was 4.9% with a 20% discount and a 10% discount on the benchmark interest rate. Are you afraid of getting taller after transferring? Don't turn because you think it's risky?
Actually, there is no need to worry. If the original interest rate is preferential interest rate, the preferential interest rate will be maintained after being converted into LPR interest rate. Now the benchmark interest rate of LPR is 4.65%. Assuming that the original preferential interest rate is 4. 1%, it becomes lpr-55 basis points after conversion. The first annual interest rate after conversion is the same as the original interest rate. The difference is that after the second year, if the LPR benchmark continues to decline, the monthly supply will be less than tens of yuan.
If the original mortgage interest rate rises by more than 20% on the basis of the benchmark 4.9%, these buyers are basically above 5.8%, exceeding the mortgage interest rate of 5.8%. When buying a house, the house price is basically at a high level, and the interest rate is also at a high level when signing the contract. Even turning to the future, it depends on the fluctuation of LPR value to decide whether there will be a small monthly decline.
There are still many people who think that banks will not take the initiative to make profits?
Have you ever thought about a question? Last year, the interest rate of the first suite was between 5.6 and 5.8%. Recently, the interest rate of the first suite is mostly between 5. 1-5.3%, and the loan is 500,000. In just a few months, the monthly mortgage repayment is different. Do you think the buyer's heart will fluctuate? At present, the internal circulation movement initiated by the state has indirectly reduced the expenditure of the housing market, even if it is reduced by tens of yuan every month, it is also a meager profit for loan buyers.
To sum up, if you can transfer the LPR interest rate, try to transfer it. The core of the problem is mainly to see if the mortgage interest rate you signed at the beginning is low enough! In the case that the original mortgage interest rate is low, it is the key to pay off the loan as soon as possible without debt.
How many times has the Federal Reserve raised interest rates since 20 19?
As of 20 19.08. 15 and 20 19, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates 0 times and lowered interest rates 1 time, and the interest rate remained unchanged for 4 times. Data may be updated over time.
Financial situation refers to Britain: Federal Reserve interest rate
The Federal Reserve interest rate, that is, the federal funds rate, refers to the interest rate in the American interbank lending market and is the most important overnight lending rate. This interest rate change can sensitively reflect the surplus and shortage of inter-bank funds. By targeting and adjusting the interbank lending rate, the Federal Reserve can directly affect the capital cost of commercial banks and transfer the surplus and deficiency of funds in the interbank lending market to industrial and commercial enterprises, thus affecting consumption, investment and the national economy.
Mortgage interest rate in 2022
The interest rate of the first home loan in China Mainland is as high as 5.46%, and the interest rate of the second home loan is even as high as 5.83%, ranking first among the major economies in the world. The current mortgage interest rate in the United States is only 3.69%, while it is only about 2% in Britain, France and Germany in the euro zone, about 2% in Japan and South Korea in East Asia, and about 2% in China, Hongkong and Taiwan Province Province in China.
Especially since the beginning of 20021,mortgage interest rates in many cities across the country have continued to rise, and the highest mortgage interest rate even rose to 7.5% for the second suite. The rise in mortgage interest rates is almost the same as that of cities across the country, and no one is spared. Property buyers can only hope to "sigh"!
However, from the long-term and phased perspective in the future, it is inevitable to cut interest rates on mortgage loans. Because in the next five years, it is difficult for China's GDP growth rate to remain above 6%, but it may drop to 4%-5%, and the economic base of high interest rate no longer exists. Therefore, in the next five years, the mortgage interest rate will also drop from the current 5%-6% to 4%-5%, and the operating loan interest rate may even remain below 4% for a long time.
The deposit interest rate is likely to "fall" in the next five years. After the economic growth slows down, the deposit interest rate will definitely fall. Because the return on investment of the whole society has "declined", everyone is unwilling to invest in business, but willing to save money to avoid risks, which will inevitably lead to a decline in deposit interest rates.
When the urbanization process slows down, the demand for housing will decline and the purchasing power will also decline. The real estate policy will shift from "high pressure" to "stability", and the relaxation trend will be very obvious.
Under the evolution of the above factors, it is basically impossible for China to maintain "high mortgage interest rate" for a long time, and "interest rate reduction" is the only way out.
Mortgage interest rate refers to the loan with real estate in the bank, and the interest is paid according to the interest rate stipulated by the bank. China's mortgage interest rate is uniformly stipulated by the People's Bank of China, and all commercial banks can float within a certain range.
The mortgage interest rate in China is not always constant, but often changes. The form is that interest rates have been rising, so we often compare the situation before and after raising interest rates.
2065438+June 7, 2002, the central bank issued an urgent document to commercial banks, requiring that the lower limit of the floating range of individual housing loan interest rate of commercial banks should still be 0.7 times of the benchmark interest rate. Commercial banks will implement the new interest rate: if the loan term is more than one year, the loan interest rate will be adjusted once a year, and it will be 65438+ 10/0 in June. If the benchmark interest rate is not adjusted within the loan term, the loan interest rate will not be adjusted. On March 20 17, Beijing 16 Bank cancelled the 10% discount on the first home loan interest rate and adjusted the first home loan interest rate to 9.5%.
From August, 2065438 to August, 2009, the national multi-city mortgage interest rate rose by 20%.
On the afternoon of May 20th, 2002/KLOC-0, Shenzhen Branch of the four major banks of Industry, Agriculture, China and Communications made it clear to Du Nan that the mortgage interest rate had been raised.