Counter-cyclical adjustment is expected to strengthen.
Although the July social financing data released last night and the July economic data released last Wednesday are not as good as expected, they have limited impact on A-shares, and some funds are expected to be adjusted countercyclically.
In view of the increase in social financing in China in July of 1.0 1 trillion, the expected value was 1.625 trillion, and the previous value was 2.26 trillion. Xingshi Investment said that the data was less than expected. In addition to seasonal factors, the sharp decline in new RMB loans and the unexpected contraction of non-standard financing are the main reasons for the decline, and the deeper reasons behind this are weak demand for corporate loans and tightening financial supervision. Xingshi Investment believes that in terms of fiscal policy, on the one hand, special bonds have room for expansion, on the other hand, finance can be overweight: after local government special bonds can be used as capital from June 5438 to July, infrastructure will be more active, and high-level meetings emphasize short-board projects such as renovation of old communities, cold chain logistics and information networks, and new infrastructure may be the key directions.
In terms of economic data in July, Du Bin, chief economist of Hony Capital Fiona Fang, said that the overall data was stable and weak, and the policy needed to be adjusted countercyclically. He pointed out that the retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 7.6% in July, which was mainly affected by the overdraft of automobile consumption in June. Excluding automobile consumption and petroleum commodities affected by the drop in oil prices, the growth rate of consumer goods is still above 9%, which is the same as that in June. Consumption of catering, tourism, culture and entertainment still maintained rapid growth. The overall investment in fixed assets has stabilized, manufacturing investment has rebounded, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down. The policy effect of local special bonds as the capital of major infrastructure projects has not yet appeared, and the growth rate of real estate investment has declined slightly, but it still maintains rapid growth. Beyond market expectations is the decline in industrial added value, with a growth rate of only 4.8%. Due to the decline of export-related industries, the growth rate of supply slowed down significantly. Xingshi Investment also said that under the background of increasing downward pressure on economic data, the adjustment of "countercyclical policy" is expected to be strengthened.
The stock market need not be too pessimistic.
It is worth noting that investors quickly ushered in a "rate cut" last weekend. On August 17, in order to deepen the interest rate marketization reform, promote the "two-track integration" of loan interest rate, improve the interest rate transmission efficiency and reduce the financing cost of the real economy, the central bank decided to reform and improve the formation mechanism of loan market quotation rate (LPR). The industry believes that this move can promote the reduction of the real interest rate of loans. After LPR reform, it is equivalent to asymmetric interest rate reduction, and the reduction of real interest rate may be less than the effect of normal interest rate reduction. Wide credit plus code is conducive to economic stability.
With favorable policies, investors' confidence in economic fundamentals has increased. In fact, fund people believe that in the medium term, the opportunities of A shares outweigh the risks.
ICBC Credit Suisse Bank Fund said that considering that the government's steady growth signal is clear, the judgment that the economic downside risks are controllable will remain unchanged. Considering that the nominal GDP growth rate in the second quarter has rebounded from that in the first quarter, tax reduction and fee reduction have a certain positive impact on corporate profit margins, and the profit growth rate is bottoming out. In terms of valuation, the static valuation of the current market is lower than the historical median level. At present, the overall overseas liquidity is in a loose pattern, which will have a positive impact on the valuation of A shares. In terms of risk preference, market valuation is expected to be suppressed in the context of the recent increase in uncertainty of external factors. On the whole, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the stock market, because the market has recently been adjusted by the tightening of real estate policies and external factors, and the opportunities in the medium-term stock market still outweigh the risks.
A Public Offering of Fund manager said that the attractiveness of equity assets has increased significantly. From the perspective of fixed income, the risk-free interest rate has a downside, but the space is not very large, and it may linger at low interest rates for a long time. This is good for equity assets. Therefore, for fixed income, it is essential to invest in convertible bonds and enjoy the benefits brought by the strength of equity assets, so as to obtain better benefits in future investment. Accordingly, for equity investment, it is a good medium-and long-term layout opportunity at present.
(Article Source: china securities journal)
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