After the Hang Seng Index was suppressed to the bottom of 666 on August 13th in the first round, the Hong Kong government mobilized Hong Kong, Chinese and British capital to enter the market, and launched a battle with its rivals for the August stock index futures contract. Speculative capital means that the air force wants to suppress the index, while the Hong Kong government wants to hold the index, forcing speculators to sell contracts at a high level in advance and fail to cash out at a low level before the end of August. After the Hong Kong government entered the market, it bought a large number of August stock index futures contracts with speculative capital short, which pushed the price up from 6,61 points before entering the market to 7,82 points on the 24th, an increase of more than 8%, which was higher than the average opening price of 7,5 points of investment capital, and achieved initial success. After the market closed, the Hong Kong government announced that it had used the exchange fund to intervene in the stock market and futures market. However, the financial snipers were still unwilling. According to the original plan, on August 16th, they forced Russia to give up the action of defending the ruble, which led to the overall crash of the US and European stock markets on August 17th. However, to their great disappointment, on August 18th, the Hang Seng Index narrowly missed, falling only 13 points at the close.
In the second round, the two sides launched a warehouse-changing war from August 25th to 28th, forcing speculative capital to pay a high price. On the 27th and 28th, speculative capital rushed out in the stock spot market in an attempt to beat the index. At the same time, the Hong Kong government held fast to the stock market. After eight days of soul-stirring battles, the August contract price was pushed up to 7,99 points in the futures market, and the settlement price was 7,851 points, 1,2 points higher than before entering the market. On August 27th and 28th, the Hong Kong Government accepted all the sales orders. As a result, the transaction amount reached HK$ 2 billion on the 27th and HK$ 79 billion on the 28th, setting a record for the highest transaction in Hong Kong.
On the 27th, on the eve of futures settlement in August, the SAR Government made a decisive battle gesture. Although the global financial news was extremely bad that day, the US Dow Jones stock index fell by 217 points, and the European and Latin American stock markets fell by 3%-8%. The Hong Kong stock market faced a severe test. According to market participants, the Hong Kong Government injected about HK$ 2 billion a day, which increased the Hang Seng Index by 88 points. Lay the foundation for the final decisive battle.
On the same day, the International Speculator Quantum Fund declared that the Hong Kong Government would fail. In an interview with CNBC TV, the chief investment strategy of Soros Quantum Fund, an international speculator who speculates on the Hong Kong market, first admitted that Quantum Fund has been shorting the Hong Kong dollar and the Hang Seng Index. He also said that due to the economic recession in Hong Kong, the "war" launched by the Hong Kong government against international investors in the foreign exchange market and the stock market will end in failure. Although Soros made a big move every time, he never publicly admitted that he was attacking a certain currency. This kind of event in which he openly challenged a government in the name of a company or some people and threatened to defeat a certain government was unheard of and unprecedented.
28th is the futures settlement period, and speculators have a large number of futures orders that must be sold when they expire. If the stock market and foreign exchange market can stabilize at a high level or continue to break through on that day, speculators will lose hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, otherwise the tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars invested by the Hong Kong Government a few days ago will be thrown into the sea. The scene of the fighting between the two sides on that day was far more thrilling than the day before. The turnover of the whole day reached a record of HK$ 79 billion. The Hong Kong Government made every effort to resist the unprecedented selling pressure from international speculators. At the end of the market, the Hang Seng Index stood at 7,829 points, up 1,169 points or 17.55% from August 13th before the HKMA entered the market.
Donald Tsang, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary, immediately announced that the Hong Kong government had won the battle to crack down on international speculators and defend Hong Kong's stock market and currency. Market participants in Hong Kong estimate that the Hong Kong Government has invested more than HK$ 1 billion in the two-week stock market support operation, and concentrated on buying the shares of several major blue-chip companies in Hong Kong. It is estimated that the Hong Kong Government currently holds 4% of the shares equivalent to the total market value of US$ 21 billion in the Hong Kong stock market and has become a major shareholder of several blue-chip companies in Hong Kong.
The Hong Kong Futures Exchange introduced three new measures on the 29th. That is, from the opening of the market on August 31, a special deposit of 15% will be levied on customers who hold more than 1, HSI futures contracts, that is, the deposit for each HSI futures contract will be adjusted from HK$ 8, to HK$ 12,; Reduce the requirement for reporting a large number of positions from 5 contracts to 25 contracts; When reporting, the identity of a large number of position holders must also be reported to the Futures Exchange.
on the 31st, the stock market plunged by 7.1% after the government terminated the support action, but the decline was less than expected by market participants. The Hang Seng Index fell 554.7 points, closing at 7,257.4 points, with a total turnover of only HK$ 6.6 billion, less than one tenth of last Friday's record high of HK$ 79 billion. Some investors had predicted that the index might plummet by 15%.
However, speculative capital is not willing to rest. They think that the Hong Kong government has invested about HK$ 1 billion, and it is impossible to sustain it for a long time. Therefore, they decided to change the short-selling stock index futures contract from August to September to fight a protracted war with the Hong Kong government. Since August 25th, speculative capital has been short-selling September contracts in large quantities while closing positions in August contracts. At the same time, the Hong Kong government pursued victory on the basis of closing the contract in August, making the price of the September contract 65 points higher than the settlement price of the August contract. In this way, speculative capital has to pay more than HK$ 3, for each contract. The investment capital completely failed in the competition for the contract in August.
In the third round, the Hong Kong Government continued to push up the price of stock index futures in September, forcing speculative capital losses to leave. On September 7, the financial management department of the Hong Kong Government promulgated new regulations on foreign exchange, securities trading and settlement, which restricted speculators' speculation. On that day, the Hang Seng Index soared by 588 points to close at 876 points. At the same time, the appreciation of the yen and the stability of the financial markets in Southeast Asia have increased the capital and exchange costs of speculative capital, and speculative capital has to retreat. On September 8, the contract price in September rose to 822 points, and the speculative capital transferred at the end of August had to close its position and leave, and each contract would lose another HK$ 4,. On September 1st, when the trading results of the spot stock market on August 28th were delivered, the Hong Kong Government found that due to loopholes in the settlement system, HK$ 14.6 billion of traded shares could not be delivered, and speculators were able to escape.
In this intervention for 1 consecutive trading days, the Hong Kong government intervened in the stock market, futures market and foreign exchange market at the same time, trying to form a three-dimensional defense network, which prevented international speculators from exerting their good means of "diverting the East from the West" or "shocking the mountain". Specifically, in view of the fact that most speculators are selling futures below 8, points, the Hong Kong Government hopes to push the Hang Seng Stock Index to a level close to 8, points, and at the same time raise the settlement price of August futures index, while letting September futures index fall back, thus opening a gap between the two. Even if some speculators want to transfer warehouse receipts from August to September, they have to pay hundreds of points for admission, which greatly increases the cost. In concrete operation, the Hong Kong government and international speculators will focus on big blue-chip stocks, mainly including HSBC, Hongkong Telecom, Cheung Kong and other stocks. These stocks have large capital stock and high market value, which play an important role in the fluctuation of Hang Seng Index. Take HSBC as an example, this stock accounts for 3% of the Hang Seng Index, so it has become a competitive stock. By the end of August 1999, the stocks purchased at that time were calculated. The book profit was about HK$ 71.7 billion, an increase of 6.8%, and the Hang Seng Index rebounded to 13,5 points. International speculators suffered heavy losses, and the Hong Kong Government's entry into the market was a great success. It is said that Soros alone lost $8 million. It is said that the China government has used its foreign exchange reserves to support the government. However, the market opened by the government itself, and it is a bit entertaining to go in and play (criticized by Greenspan).
Soros made a profit of $2 billion in the Southeast Asian financial crisis in p>97 (outside speculation).
The financial crisis in Southeast Asia lasted for a long time, and its harm and spread far exceeded people's expectations. However, the crisis is by no means accidental, it is the inevitable result of a series of factors. From the external reasons, it is the huge impact of international investment and the resulting withdrawal of foreign capital. According to statistics, during the crisis, foreign capital evacuated from Southeast Asian countries and regions reached as high as 4 billion US dollars. However, the most fundamental reason for the financial crisis in Southeast Asia lies in the internal economic contradictions of these countries and regions. Southeast Asian countries and regions are one of the fastest growing regions in the world economy in recent 2 years. With the rapid economic growth in recent years, these countries and regions have exposed increasingly serious problems: ① The advantages of export-oriented labor-intensive industrial development are declining with the increase of labor costs and the intensification of market competition. The economic growth mode and economic structure of the above-mentioned Southeast Asian countries and regions have not been adjusted in a timely and effective manner, resulting in a decline in competitiveness, a slow growth in foreign exports, and a high current account deficit. In 1996, the current account deficit of Thailand's balance of payments was $23 billion, while that of South Korea was as high as $23.7 billion. ② The bank loans are too loose, the real estate investment is too large, the vacancy rate of commercial housing is rising, and the bank has bad debts. Bad assets such as bad debts are expanding day by day. Thailand's financial institutions have serious cash flow problems, several large enterprises in South Korea have declared bankruptcy due to insolvency, several financial institutions in Japan have closed down, and the credit crisis in Indonesia has intensified. These economic factors have affected the foreign exchange market and the stock market from various aspects. ③ Economic growth relies too much on foreign capital, and a large number of foreign capital is introduced, which leads to the aggravation of foreign debt. Thailand's foreign debt was $2 billion in 1992, reaching $86 billion before the devaluation in 1997, and South Korea's foreign debt exceeded $ 15D billion. ④ The exchange rate system is rigid. In recent years, the US dollar has greatly appreciated against major international currencies, and the exchange rates of Southeast Asian countries and regions have not been adjusted, which has led to overvaluation, which has aggravated the rise in product prices and the sharp decline in exports. Therefore, it is imperative for these countries and regions to devalue their currencies. The devaluation of the currency has led to a further decline in the ability to repay foreign debts, and the inflationary pressure has intensified, thus prompting the stock market to fall. ⑤ When the opening conditions and resilience are not sufficient, open the financial market prematurely and join the international financial integration. When international hot money takes the opportunity to make waves, some Southeast Asian countries and regions are at a loss or lack of measures, and are completely in a passive position.