A detailed analysis of the reasons for the price difference between new york and Brent crude oil

According to the changes of crude oil positions in new york:

Position reports composed of commercial participants including producers, swap dealers, money managers (funds or capital management companies) and others (tier-1 dealers on Wall Street) and non-reporting (that is, retail investors and small traders)

Above the oil distribution, producers and small traders. In other words, the New York Stock Exchange has more non-commercial trading positions and more speculative sentiment.

First, let's look at the position changes of the so-called futures main force and producers:

London:

On the 4th, there were 139,541 long contracts and 231,629 short contracts, totaling about 371,17. The long-short ratio is: short contracts divided by the number of long contracts: 1.68

On the 8th, there were 189,456 long contracts. The long-short ratio is: 1.45

The ratio of long position increase is relatively large

However, both traders and hedge funds are cutting long positions, so it can be considered that the rising power of oil distribution comes from commercial position trading such as producers. How do these positions make profits?

new york:

4th: 255,853 long contracts and 43,143 short contracts, the total approximate number is 658,996 contracts, and the long-short ratio is 1.58

8th: 424,615 long contracts and 619,85 short contracts, the total approximate number is 1,43,7 contracts. In fact, the long positions only increased by about 17, contracts, and the short positions increased by 21, contracts < P > However, the hedging spreading contracts of swap dealers increased from about 21, contracts to more than 73, contracts, exceeding all positions held by oil producers, and the short positions increased by more than 6, contracts to 32, contracts, while the long positions only increased by less than 1, contracts to more than 22, contracts.

The proportion of short positions of money managers and primary dealers is decreasing, but the most obvious problem is that the number of spreading contracts of all market participants, except retail investors and producers, has soared, and the hedging of money managers has increased from 17, to 31,, and that of top dealers has increased from 18, to 61,.

in other words, the key change in the market is the increase of spreading position, and then analyze the various possibilities arising from the increase.

the total position of oil distributor is about 1.2 million contracts with long positions and short positions.

the total position of new york is about 5.6 million contracts, with short positions and long positions divided in half.

in other words, the oil distribution contracts are less than a quarter of those in new york, and the daily trading volume of new york crude oil is about 3, contracts, with an average trading volume of 9, contracts. New york crude oil has a much greater impact on the world than oil distribution.

The top ten crude oil importing countries in the United States in p>29:

Canada (1.984 million barrels per day)

Mexico (951, barrels per day)

Nigeria (948, barrels per day)

Saudi Arabia (837, barrels per day)

Venezuela (8, barrels per day). Day)

Algerian (219, barrels per day)

Colombian (216, barrels per day)

The price difference originated from the new york crude oil market, which is related to the unanimous increase of short contracts between funds and business participants. How to understand this phenomenon?

The political turmoil in the Middle East has first affected the oil distribution market, and European and Asian countries have the most far-reaching influence, because the main importers of European and Asian oil are the Persian Gulf and Russia.

In addition, in the long run, with the fermentation and continuous influence of the Middle East issue, oil prices will certainly spread to America, because many countries may change their oil supply routes and tend to import oil from American countries with much lower oil prices.

Of course, the huge price difference may lead to a sharp increase in arbitrage capital, so in the long run, oil prices still tend to be balanced.

from the market point of view, new york crude oil price difference may exist in the short term, but in the long run, the gap will gradually narrow.