The market share of brokerage business has steadily increased, ranking in the forefront of the industry, and the commission rate has continued to decline. In 2007, 2008 and mid-2009, the market share of the company's brokerage business was 3.39%, 3.98% and 3.99% respectively. In 2007, the company ranked seventh in the market and sixth in the brokerage business in 2008 and 2009. Although the market share of the company's brokerage business has increased well, the "commission rate" of the company's brokerage business has been declining since 2007. At present, the company's brokerage business income in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim region accounts for 74.6% of the company's brokerage business income. These areas are the areas where the price war of brokerage business is fierce and risky, especially in the case of bear market.
The scale of fund management is the second in the industry, and it is the second main source of the company's business income. The profit model is obviously better than other brokers, and its countercyclical ability is stronger. From June to June, 2009, the company realized fund management business income of 736.979 million yuan, accounting for 224. 1% of the operating income, which was the second main source of the company's business income, and the contribution of fund income was significantly higher than that of the current listed companies. The company's brokerage+fund+asset management model is obviously superior to the profit model that other brokers mainly rely on brokerage+self-management. The business structure is relatively more balanced and stable, and the ability to cope with the strong cycle of the industry is stronger.
Underwriting business has distinct segmentation characteristics. While focusing on cultivating small and medium-sized enterprises with high growth potential, we will actively expand large-scale projects and seek common growth with customers.
Earnings forecast and valuation: Assuming that the average daily stock trading volume in 2009-201/kloc-0 is RMB 2,000, RMB 2 100 and RMB 220 billion respectively, we expect that the company will be fully diluted in 2009-201/every year. Based on the company's profit forecast in 2009, I think the company's reasonable valuation is between 28-30 times of dynamic PE, corresponding to the target price of 22.96-24.6 yuan.
At present, the dynamic PE of brokerage stocks in 2009 is 32.9 times (as of 2009 165438+ 10), and the company's issue price is 3 1 yuan. In 2009, the dynamic PE was 38 times, which was significantly higher than the industry average. The company's pricing of this issue hardly gives the secondary market the necessary premium space. For the whole market, companies,