On May 23, the three major stock indexes fluctuated and dipped in early trading. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index once fell by about 1%. They stopped falling and rebounded in the afternoon. The Shanghai Stock Index turned red near the end of the trading session, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index fell significantly.
The two cities' total daily transaction volume was approximately 860 billion yuan, with net sales of northbound funds exceeding 5 billion yuan.
As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.01% to 3146.86 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 11447.95 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.3% to 2410.12 points. The two cities' total transaction volume was 859.7 billion yuan, and the net sales of northbound funds were 5.744 billion yuan.
On the market, monkeypox prevention and control concept stocks soared, the media, agriculture, and automobile sectors rose sharply, and the steel, nonferrous metals, medicine, logistics, software, coal, oil, food and beverage and other sectors all strengthened; insurance, real estate, electricity, banking,
Sectors such as construction and brewing weakened; lithium mining, intellectual property, new crown testing, fertilizers, and phosphorus concepts were active.
China Merchants Securities pointed out that since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has experienced three waves of decline - rebound market: the main line of rebound is from old infrastructure - real estate - (post-epidemic restoration, in mid-April, mainly social services, food and beverage) - high
Boom track stocks.
Judging from this round of oversold rebound in high-prosperity tracks, the emotional-based oversold rebound in high-prosperity tracks is expected to be nearing its end, and subsequent rebounds need to focus on the improvement of incremental funds.
For market reversal, A-shares still need to wait for a clearer right-side signal, and are currently in a low balance zone.
We have always believed that the inflection point of domestic fundamentals' molecule profit expectations is the first core signal for market reversal. The market has always looked forward to "real moves" and "real moves" from the policy side, and "good moves" that can effectively reverse the current domestic fundamentals expectations.
At present, we recommend "turning toward the bright future" and looking forward to "perhaps leaping into the abyss" in the second quarter.
Regarding the current four main lines of "stable growth, high prosperity, post-epidemic recovery, and global inflation", we believe that "stable growth" is still the main position (it is not appropriate to switch back and forth in a battle of positions).
Minsheng Securities said that after nearly a month of rebound, some of the growth sectors have reached close to the historical rebound and have exceeded the historical center. However, this may be a "reversal illusion" caused by the previous decline exceeding the historical average.
It is worth noting that in this round of rebound, the degree of divergence and convergence of fund performance this year has obviously not kept pace with the degree of convergence of asset prices, and "position covering" constitutes a potential reason.
The performance of asset prices last week seemed "magnificent", but in fact it was "calm", and the fundamental preset path is no different from before: the growth rebound is coming to an end, and only by choosing sub-sectors where supply and demand are independent of inflation can we achieve stable and long-term development.
The real cycle is about to return, grasping the certainty of energy, the resilience of metals to repair, and the importance of energy transportation.
Recommended: oil and gas, aluminum, copper, coal, oil transportation, gold, real estate, fertilizers and banks.