14, 200 billion yuan MLF expires, and the market speculates that the central bank will continue MLF. So far, the market expectation is that the central bank will continue to put the MLF in equal amount, and the interest rate may not be adjusted. According to the usual practice, the central bank will generally issue an operation announcement at 9: 45 am on the day of MLF renewal, explaining the MLF and reverse repurchase operations on that day. However, what fooled the market was that the central bank issued an announcement at 9: 0015 yesterday. At present, the total amount of liquidity in the banking system is at a reasonable and abundant level, and no reverse repurchase operation has been carried out. It was not until 9: 45 that the central bank quieted down, which was equivalent to officially announcing that it would not do MLF in the context of abundant liquidity. The unexpected new situation made the bond market weaken sharply, and the treasury bond futures fell rapidly. From an optimistic point of view, the recent operation mode of the central bank is to put MLF in 15 every month. As the price reference of LPR on the 20th of that month, it is predicted that the central bank will continue to operate MLF in a small amount today to reduce the interest rate of MLF. The rebound after the market crash may be optimistic, and the national debt futures show a deep V trend and eventually turn red.
The central bank's open market has not been repurchased for 30 consecutive working days. Wind data shows that there are no expired varieties in the open market this month except for the 5 billion yuan central bank bill due on May 28th.
Huachuang's collection team said in the report that, first, in the face of economic recession and domestic challenges, there are still many internal and external uncertainties, and the tone of monetary policy should be relaxed and maintained. Secondly, the operational tool of monetary policy emphasizes the role of refinancing and rediscounting, or it will be the main concern policy for some time to come. Thirdly, the central bank strengthened the monitoring of liquidity and financial market, grasped the rhythm of open market, and maintained the stable operation of capital interest rate, which changed at the end of April and the beginning of May.
Qu Qing believes that if the central bank chooses to lower the MLF interest rate, it is expected to stimulate many emotions in the market. If the MLF interest rate is not lowered or lowered, other prices will continue, which is likely to promote the pessimism of the creditor mayor.