The pig industry, like other industries, is rapidly shifting from quantitative growth to improving quality, optimizing structure and increasing benefits, and further decline in pork production will become an inevitable trend. Pigs are the first of the six livestock, and grain pigs are safe in the world.

In China, the long-standing farming civilization and food culture have made Chinese people have a special preference for pork, and also made China a leading country in pig breeding and consumption in the world. The data shows that the output value of China's pig breeding industry accounts for 47% of the total output value of animal husbandry. < P > "The scale has increased rapidly, the price fluctuation has increased, the pig cycle still exists, the production efficiency has been continuously improved, and the entry threshold has been continuously improved." Throughout the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", Chen Yaosheng, the chief scientist of the national pig industry technology system and a professor at the College of Life Sciences of Sun Yat-sen University, summed up these keywords.

in the face of the economic restructuring period under the new normal in China, "the pig industry, like other industries, is shifting from quantitative growth to improving quality, optimizing structure and increasing benefits, and further decline in pork production will become an inevitable trend." Chen Yaosheng told reporters.

The "pig cycle" has been disrupted

The output value of pig breeding industry in China accounts for 47% of the total output value of animal husbandry, and China's pig breeding and pork consumption account for about half of the world's total, ranking first in the world ... These figures are enough to attract social attention to the pig industry.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from the first quarter to the third quarter of 215, the cumulative slaughter of pigs was 497.54 million, down by 4.12% year-on-year; The cumulative output of pork in China was 38.28 million tons, down 3.63% year-on-year.

The reporter learned in the interview that the wave-like characteristics of pig prices have brought great changes to the pig industry. In recent years, for example, the pig price soared in 211, and the average net profit was 4 yuan/head; In the next three years, the cost of raising pigs increased year by year, and the profits continued to decline. In 212 and 213, the points dropped to 75 yuan/Tou and 5 yuan/Tou; In 214, almost the whole industry lost money.

According to Chen Yaosheng, the wave-like characteristics of pig prices have disrupted the pig cycle of "earning one year, leveling two years and losing three years", which means that China's pig industry will collectively fall into the "meager profit era" to some extent.

in 215, the price of live pigs improved. The data shows that from January to November, 215, the average price of live pigs nationwide was 15.1 yuan/kg, up 12.3% year-on-year.

Sun Long of Chifeng City, Inner Mongolia raised more than 2 pigs in 215. He told reporters that this year's situation is better than previous years, and the average net profit per pig is around 3 yuan.

according to the fixed-point monitoring of more than 6 pig prices in China by relevant institutions, from January 9 to 15 this year, the average price of piglets, pigs and pork in China rose steadily, and the raw material market continued its previous balance bumpy trend.

and the situation is different in different regions. Among the 22 provinces and cities, only the prices in Gansu, Jiangxi and Sichuan have dropped slightly compared with the last statistical period, and the prices in other regions have rebounded slightly to varying degrees.

Wu Jingxue, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics of China Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told reporters that pig production in China shows different regional differences, mainly concentrated in Sichuan Basin, Huanghuai Basin, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Northeast China. "These areas are also major grain producing areas, with relatively rich feed resources and location advantages."

"The Last Fertile Land of Gold"

Compared with the mature pig-raising mode abroad, there is still an obvious gap in the level of facilities, scale and production efficiency in China's pig-raising industry. The pig-raising industry has a great development space and was once called the "Last Fertile Land of Gold", attracting a large number of capital to compete.

Chen Yaosheng thinks that in recent years, various capitals have fallen into the pig industry, which has accelerated the development of large-scale pig breeding in China, and gradually led China's pig breeding into the era of industrialization. While the production efficiency has been continuously improved, it has also brought the pig industry into a profit trough, and even led to an unfavorable situation of oversupply.

for many years, there have been different arguments in the industry about what scale is suitable for the development of pig breeding industry.

the definition of large-scale pig breeding by the Ministry of agriculture is that the annual output of pigs in a farm (household) is more than 5 (inclusive). In 211, according to the needs of the development of pig industry, farms with an annual output of more than 5 (inclusive) were defined as large-scale farms. The National Development and Reform Commission defines large-scale pig breeding as a breeding mode in which the annual stock of farms (households) is more than 3 (inclusive). Some large-scale "company+farmer" enterprises have also raised the standard of cooperative farmers to more than 5.

according to the published data, in 215, 44% of large-scale farms in China (more than 5 pigs were slaughtered annually) slaughtered pigs. "In a long time to come, economies of scale will still drive the transformation and development of China's pig industry, and 56% of small-scale producers will withdraw from the pig industry at any time, which needs large-scale farmers to make up for." Chen Yaosheng said.

Some scholars think that industrial feed is mainly used in large-scale farming, and the increase of scale proportion means that the demand for food will further increase, which will inevitably lead to the contradiction of "people and animals compete for food". Therefore, while promoting the development of large-scale farming, how to solve the problems of feed grain supply (the Ministry of Agriculture promotes the preparation of grain to feed in the 13 th Five-Year Plan) and environmental protection is particularly critical.

Forced industrial transformation and upgrading

In recent years, the environmental pollution caused by pig industry has also attracted much attention (3).

In March 213, the incident of "dead pigs floating in Huangpu River" once became the focus of public opinion. In April 214, the "Dead Pig Drifting" incident appeared in Qinghai, Hubei, Jiangxi and other places. For a time, the environmental problems brought by livestock and poultry breeding have attracted great attention from the society.

The new Environmental Protection Law, which came into effect on January 1, 215, has increased its legal provisions from the original 47 to 7, increasing the punishment for the relevant pollutant discharge enterprises. The new law points out that dead pigs need to be treated harmlessly by animal health supervision institutions.

"With the implementation of the new Environmental Protection Law, waste treatment and resource utilization will become an important factor for aquaculture enterprises to operate according to law, and aquaculture enterprises must continue to study models suitable for the development of the ecological environment in this region." Chen Yaosheng said.

For a long time, the pig industry in China has been dominated by small and medium-sized retail investors. It is known that, although the number of pig farmers with more than 5 pigs per year in China has reached 44%, the number of pig farmers with less than 5 pigs per year still accounts for 56%. < P > In 215, due to the long-term low price, the price of live pigs in China has shown a rapid upward trend since May, and the price of pork is 3% ~ 5% higher than that in the international market. The United States, Denmark, Canada and other pork producing countries are eyeing up. Compared with these developed countries, the efficiency of pig breeding in China is relatively low, the cost of feed is high, and the domestic pig price is much higher than the international market for a long time, which probably leads to the rapid increase of pork imports (at present, there are 44 quarantine ports for pork imports in China), and China's pig industry will be on the verge of international competitiveness in the future.

with the rapid withdrawal of family farmers, small and medium-sized farmers are directly on the verge of new shocks. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Agriculture, in 215, 5 million small and medium-sized farmers withdrew from the pig industry, and even some large-scale farmers were forced to transfer because of the capital chain.

"Capital integration has become a hot spot in the pig industry in 215." Chen Yaosheng, for example, said that Shenzhen Jinxinnong Feed Co., Ltd. has successively controlled Hubei Tianzhong Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. and participated in Henan Xinda Animal Husbandry, and established a pig industry fund of 5 million yuan with Dongjin Animal Husbandry.

"Due to the rising cost of environmental management and the heavy hybridization of epidemic situation, the scale threshold of pig breeding industry is getting higher and higher, the characteristics of scale economy are becoming more and more obvious, and the withdrawal of small and medium-sized pig farmers is accelerating. As a result, the scale and industrial integration of China's pig industry will be further strengthened in 216, and the trend of pig industry capital market becoming bigger and stronger is becoming more and more obvious." Chen Yaosheng said.

leading the development of meat industry

in animal husbandry, the emergence of problems such as irregular use and abuse of antibiotics makes people worry. Consumers have a crisis of confidence in pork products, and the whole industry is on the verge of serious challenges.

According to Chen Yaosheng, all feed antibiotics were banned in the EU in 26, and the United States plans to completely ban antibiotics in 217. The annual consumption of antibiotics in China is 2, tons, of which 97, tons are used for animal husbandry, and the consumption per kilogram of meat produced is four times that of the United States and 22 times that of Denmark.

In September 215, the Ministry of Agriculture announced that four kinds of antibiotics should not be used not only in the feeding process, but also in the treatment process, and "no antibiotic" became the general trend.

As far as the current situation in China is concerned, Chen Yaosheng suggested that the industrial layout should be optimized and the subsidy mechanism for manure treatment should be formulated reasonably; Lubang accelerated the national preparations for the eradication of swine fever and pseudorabies, and at the same time accelerated the research on the production technology of non-resistant pork, laying the foundation for China to enter the era of non-resistance early.

Yang Commune, an expert in the technical system of national pig industry and a professor at Northwest A&F University, suggested that a personalized breeding system should be established to improve the breeding efficiency, and a whole genome selection technology platform should be built to ensure the quality and safety of pork through the improvement of breeding efficiency.

"Strengthen the analysis and monitoring of protein and fat changes in pork under different processing ideas, and publicize the key elements for pork to meet human needs." Chen Yaosheng said. At the same time, consumers' confidence in pork consumption can be enhanced by perfecting the traceability system of pork products.

The macro-economy in 216 is facing many challenges. Some economic experts predict that the GDP growth rate in 216 will remain between 6.3% and 6.9%, which is probably lower than that in 215. Under the background of macroeconomic downturn, the consumption demand of pork will be further restrained, and it is estimated that the growth rate of total pork consumption in China will be less than 1%.

According to the team of national pig industry technology system, the ultimate goal of meat production and processing is to provide consumers with nutritious, healthy, safe and delicious food. (China Science News)