Among them, China Mobile, with a market value of one trillion yuan, rose by 35% during the year, while China CNOOC, with a market value of 440 billion yuan, rose by 64%. These two stocks are blue-chip companies that re-listed on the A-share market after delisting from the United States in 2022, and the giant ship returned to become the "stabilizer" of the A-share market.
The value of large blue-chip stocks with strong cash flow, low valuation and high dividends is highlighted this year. For example, China Shenhua increased by 37%, Shaanxi Coal Industry increased by 66% and China Construction increased by 20%.
Bear market is the touchstone of value investors' minds. The bear market proves that the sustainable stocks with high dividends, high cash flow and low valuation chosen by value investors can stand the big test of market fluctuations. As Japanese investor Wang Wen said a few days ago, "dividends can bring all kinds of difficulties."
Bear market is a bright moment for value investors to beat the market. So, what kind of investors can earn excess returns in a bear market? This kind of investors have two abilities, one is the ability of value recognition, and the other is the ability of emotional control. Pursuing sustainable dividends can not only control greed, but also overcome fear.
"Elephant stocks" outperformed the market.
Red chips are the strongest blue chips this year. China Mobile A shares rose by 35% during the year, and China Mobile H shares also rose by 20% during the year. According to the disclosure in the third quarterly report this year, H shares of China Mobile were collectively included in the largest awkward position by five funds managed by Fu Pengbo and Zhao Feng, veterans of Ruiyuan Fund. China Mobile A shares paid dividends twice this year, with a dividend of 20.939 yuan per 1 0 share in June and 8.942 yuan per 10 share in August. Judging from the closing price of 65438+February 65438+March, the dividend yield of China Mobile is 2.58%.
Analysts believe that as the peak of capital expenditure has passed, China Mobile's annual dividend payment is expected to continue to grow. At the end of September, China Mobile announced that capital expenditure will not increase from 2023, and the proportion of capital expenditure income will fall below 20% in the next three years. Analysts believe that with the decline of capital expenditure, the company's profitability is expected to gradually improve, and dividend payment to returning shareholders is also expected to increase.
China CNOOC and other big blue chips are cash cows, and the return to A shares has enhanced investors' sense of gain. China CNOOC rose 64% this year, and Wanjia Macro Timing Strategy, Wanjia Xinli and Wanjia Select all listed China CNOOC as the first heavyweight stock. China CNOOC A shares also paid dividends twice this year, with a dividend of RMB 0.0699 per 10 share in July and RMB 6.0844 per 10 share in June. As of 65438+February 65438+March, the latest dividend yield of CNOOC A shares is 3.79%, and the dynamic valuation is 6 times.
China Shenhua, Yankuang Energy and Shaanxi Coal, which have a market value of 100 billion yuan, have all increased by more than 30% this year. As of 65438+February 65438+March, the latest dividend yield of Shaanxi Coal Industry is 7. 1%, and that of China Shenhua is 8.29%.
These big blue chips with a market value of 100 billion yuan have become the "stabilizers" of A shares because of their large size, high dividends, strong cash flow and low valuation, which has blocked the decline of A shares.
What kind of people are suitable for value investment?
Bear market is the touchstone for value investors. Real value investors will seize major investment opportunities in the bear market and lay out their dream stocks at cheap prices. Investors who can withstand the bear market test have the following characteristics:
First, excellent value estimation ability. Value investors need to have excellent value estimation ability, just like when Buffett invested in Washington post in 1973, the market value of the company was 80 million dollars, and Buffett judged that the company was worth at least 400 million dollars. Buffett bought Washington post at a 20% discount, and his investment finally earned more than 60 times.
Companies with low valuation, high dividends, strong cash flow and sustainability also belong to companies that can be roughly clearly and reasonably valued. When Yao Zhang, the top ten tradable shareholder of Shaanxi Coal Industry, sold Shaanxi Coal Industry on 20 18, it was estimated that the investment would be recovered in five or six years.
According to the quarterly report of 200211, Ruiyuan Fund significantly increased its holdings of H shares of China Mobile. This set of data may reveal the attractiveness of China Mobile to value investors: by the end of 2020, the market value of China Mobile will be about 900 billion yuan, but the cash and cash equivalents in the hands of the company will be as high as 323 1 100 million yuan; The net profit in 2020 is 65.438+00.78 billion yuan, and the P/E ratio is lower than 654.38+00 times. In 2020, the annual dividend was HK$ 3.29, and the dividend yield was higher than 6.7%.
The second is excellent emotional control ability. Value investors need to have excellent emotional control ability in order to avoid being affected by panic that is widely spread in the market and not being attracted by the money-making effect of high valuation plate. 1999, Buffett correctly avoided the internet bubble; Yao Zhang, Wang Wen and other A-share investors have also avoided the hot track of new energy in recent three years, and kept the leading stocks of traditional energy without any worries.
The third is long-term financial and psychological preparation. Investors must be prepared for long-term capital and psychological investment to avoid being forced to sell. Under the constraints of 0.7 yuan's liquidation line and 0.9 yuan's lightening line, it is difficult for private equity funds to integrate knowledge and practice, thus falling into the opposite behavior of value investment. The long-term capital attribute is very important for value investors.
The common feature of real value investors is rationality. They don't seek happiness in conformity, but keep independent thinking. As john fenn said, most players get happiness from being accepted by the group or belonging to the group. However, a good player gets pleasure from his ability to deal with various situations in the game.