1. Backward oil and gas resource base.
Although the rapid growth of international oil prices in recent years has provided a historical opportunity for Putin to realize the idea of Russian energy empire, problems such as backward development of Russian oil and gas industry resource base, decreased workload of geological exploration, increased difficulty in exploration and development of new oil and gas fields, and imbalance of reserve-production ratio caused by slow growth of proven oil and gas reserves are becoming obstacles to Russian oil and gas production growth. At present, 98% of oil and gas fields in Russia are in the exploitation period. If the crude oil reserves continue to grow slowly in the next 10 year, the growth of crude oil production will be difficult to sustain. According to the prediction of Russian energy experts, Russia's economic reserves of crude oil will be exhausted in 20 15 years, and the reserves of condensate gas fields will also be exhausted in 2025. In order to eliminate the imbalance between mineral exploitation and reproduction of mineral resources, Russia's annual investment in geological exploration needs about 654.38+02 billion rubles.
The situation of Russian natural gas raw material base is slightly better, because the natural gas reserves are highly concentrated in several large gas fields in western Siberia, which creates favorable conditions for exploitation and pipeline transportation. In order to meet the growing demand for natural gas in Russian domestic and foreign markets, it is necessary to invest and develop promising natural gas fields in a step-by-step and planned way according to certain economic benefits, such as the waters of the Ber River and the Taz Bay, the Yamal Peninsula and the Arctic continental shelf. However, because these oil and gas fields are far away from the existing natural gas pipeline trunk lines, they need a lot of investment to solve the problems of oil well construction facilities, natural gas industrial projects, laying natural gas pipelines on permafrost and adopting new technologies to protect the natural environment, which greatly increases the cost of developing natural gas fields.
In addition, due to the lack of geological exploration projects in new oil and gas areas and offshore continental shelf in major Russian oil companies and natural gas industry joint-stock companies, the proven oil and gas reserves structure is also weakening. By 20 10, the share of high-yield oil and gas reserves in the total reserves of the national balance sheet may be reduced to 30%, thus directly threatening the national energy security. Therefore, finding, exploring and developing new oil and gas fields with huge reserves has become a top priority for Russian oil and gas industry.
2. Oil production equipment and crude oil processing equipment are seriously aging.
At present, the matching capacity of raw materials processing in Russian domestic refineries is low, and 2/3 of the processing equipment is catastrophically aging, and the degree of equipment wear reaches 80%. 70% of drilling equipment and 30% of maintenance units in Russia's large oil fields are also aging, and half of the equipment in the oil production industry is worn out by more than 50%. In addition, oil companies rely on modern oil production and refining, and the means to improve oil production and quality are not advanced enough, and the utilization level of unconventional renewable energy is low. Therefore, the urgent problem for Russian refineries is to update oil production equipment and modernize existing refineries to meet the needs of producing new fuels.
3. Weak transportation infrastructure
Russia's mineral resources with development prospects are mostly concentrated in remote and sparsely populated or undeveloped far north areas, lacking basic transportation facilities, which greatly reduces the use value of resources and increases the development and transportation costs. For example, there are many promising oil fields in East Siberia and the Far East, but the underdeveloped oil pipelines in this area not only restrict the development of new oil fields, but also become the biggest bottleneck affecting the growth of Russian oil production. The lack of transportation capacity of Russian oil pipelines leads to the decline of the actual export capacity of crude oil, and the annual losses to Russian oil companies reach 4 billion to 1 1 billion dollars. The weakness of transportation infrastructure also directly affects the exploitation speed of oil and gas resources and the scale of foreign investment in Russian oil and gas industry.
4. Insufficient investment funds
On June 5438+ 10, 2004, the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources reviewed the national long-term plan of Russian underground resources and mineral raw material reproduction research (2005 ~ 20 10 and before 2020) on the basis of balancing the reproduction and demand of mineral raw materials, with the focus on increasing the oil and natural gas reserves. However, to reach the level of crude oil exploitation set by the Russian Ministry of Energy, it is far from enough to strengthen geological exploration and oil transportation infrastructure construction, and considerable investment is needed. In fact, since 199 1, the Russian government's funding for geological exploration has been gradually reduced, and it has been reduced by dozens of times. For example, in 1992, the government allocated134 billion rubles for geological exploration, while in 2004 it only allocated 6 billion rubles. However, the funds allocated to users of mineral resources have reached 46 billion to 47 billion rubles. Although major Russian oil companies have paid attention to the investment in exploration and development of new oil fields since 2005, the results are not obvious due to insufficient funds.
According to Russian experts' estimation, before 2020, the minimum investment required by Russian oil industry alone will reach $200 billion ~ 2 1000 billion, of which the investment required by oil production department will be $15.5 billion ~16 billion. The investment required for the oil refining sector is 654.38+0.9 billion ~ 265.438+0 billion USD; The oil transportation sector needs to invest $27 billion. At present, the main investment channel is the company's own funds, because only by developing new oil-producing areas can it be possible to absorb loan funds in a planned way with funding. Future loans and equity can only account for less than 25% ~ 30% of the total investment.
5. Lack of measures to encourage oil and gas companies to explore and develop new oil and gas fields.
Soaring oil prices have brought unprecedented profits to Russia. However, the growth rate of crude oil production of major Russian oil companies has declined in such a good situation, and in the near future, it may not only be the decline of crude oil production, but also the gradual decline of oil production.
Russian experts believe that the decline in oil production is only a symptom. The real reason is that the Russian government lacks measures to encourage oil and gas companies to carry out geological exploration and drill new oil wells, because this phenomenon occurs against the background that the actual drilling workload of major oil companies has decreased and the exploration of new oil and gas fields has slowed down. In addition, the Russian government's tax adjustment policy for the oil and gas industry is flawed. Until now, different oil and gas fields have not been taxed separately, which is one of the factors that reduce the speed of crude oil exploitation in Russia at present. Yuri Trutnev, Minister of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, recently pointed out that Russia's crude oil reserves are changing. In 2007, Russia's crude oil reserves increased by 550 million tons, exceeding the crude oil output (490 million tons) by 60 million tons, which has never happened in Russia in the past 15 years. However, most of the newly discovered oil fields are small and medium-sized oil fields with a reserve of 5 million ~150,000 tons. The oil fields with large reserves mainly belong to the plans of large oil companies. Although small and medium-sized companies are very interested in developing these oil fields, there are many restrictions on developing these oil fields now. For example, in 2007, the Russian Ministry of Mineral Resources Supervision repeatedly accused small and medium-sized oil companies of not meeting the conditions in the licensing agreement, and the Ministry of Industry and Energy did not have any legal provisions to improve the status quo of small and medium-sized oil companies.
In order to solve the above problems, the Russian government has formulated the basic reproduction plan of mineral resources before 2020, and plans to allocate 3.5 trillion rubles for geological exploration and strengthen geological exploration projects; Russia's new mineral resources law also encourages mineral resources users to invest in geological exploration and compensate their investment in the form of licenses. In addition, the Russian government will also adjust the royalty and mining tax rate of mineral resources and reduce the value-added tax rate for finding and exploring mineral resources. A Committee composed of representatives from the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development is preparing to revise the tax law in the oil and gas industry.
Second, the development prospect of Russian oil and gas industry
On the whole, Russia's oil and gas industry is in good production condition and has an optimistic development prospect. The output of major oil and gas companies in China will show a steady growth trend, and will remain a new force in Russian economic development. In order to maintain the important position of the oil and gas industry in the development of Russian national economy, the Russian government has defined a series of development plans for the oil and gas industry in the near future in "Russian Energy Strategy 2020", namely, ensuring the sustainable development and expanding reproduction of the oil raw material base; Rational use of proven oil reserves; Increase oil exports and lift technical and other restrictions on oil exports; Support the development of oil and gas transportation infrastructure.
1. Intensify the exploration of oil and gas resource bases.
In order to ensure that the growth rate of oil and gas reserves and production tends to be balanced by 20 12 years ago, the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources has formulated a strategic plan for the exploration and development of oil and gas resources in the Russian Federation before 2020, identified some areas with exploration prospects that the state will focus on investing in, and plans to increase the expenditure on geological exploration projects.
(1) Eastern Siberia: A large number of oil and gas resources have been gathered in krasnoyarskiy kray, Termel and Evenki Autonomous Region, and Irkutsk Region. According to the prediction of krasnoyarskiy kray's crude oil, natural gas and condensate oil resources made by Russian Ministry of Natural Resources in recent years, this frontier region has proved 8.2 billion tons of recoverable crude oil, 23.6 trillion cubic meters of free natural gas and 638 billion cubic meters of liquefied petroleum gas, accounting for 50% of the total oil and gas resources in East Siberia, accounting for about 10% of the total oil and gas reserves in Russia, second only to Tyumen. Due to the lack of funds, most of the rich oil and gas resources in eastern Siberia have not been developed and utilized. In order to meet the demand for crude oil in the East Siberia-Pacific oil pipeline and make the initial oil production period of many oil fields in East Siberia and Sakha coincide with the service life of the East Siberia-Pacific oil pipeline, the Russian government is making plans to increase investment and development in this area and make it the most reliable resource base for Russian oil and gas industry in the future.
(2) Arctic continental shelf: The oil and gas reserves in this area are very considerable. There are many oil and gas fields rich in oil and gas resources in Jiman-Bojola province and northern Yamal-Nenets autonomous region, and supporting infrastructure construction projects are currently under way.
(3) Far East: The oil and gas reserves in this area are mainly concentrated in Saha countries and the continental shelf of the Sea of Okhotsk. At present, Russia is actively conducting large-scale geological exploration of oil and gas deposits in the Sakhalin continental shelf and Kamchatka area. "Sakhalin 2" project is the most dynamic oil and gas project in the Far East of Russian Federation.
At the beginning of 2008, the Russian Ministry of Mines announced that in order to implement the development plan of East Siberia and the Far East as soon as possible and achieve the expected results, the Russian state finance will increase the allocation for geological exploration projects from 65.438+098 billion rubles in 2006 to 22 billion rubles, with an increase of 65.438+065.438+0%, of which the exploration cost for oil and gas bases is 65.438+000. Trutnev, Minister of Natural Resources of Russia, pointed out that the Russian government plans to amend the provisions on the use of natural resources and environmental protection in the mineral law, lift the restrictions on foreign investors to develop small and medium-sized natural resources, and will not take back the issued production licenses, regardless of the size of reserves.
2. Increase oil and gas production
(1) Oil: The future development strategy of Russian oil and gas industry is to gradually increase oil and gas production as planned, so as to keep its output stable. At present, Russia's main crude oil production base is still West Siberia. However, with the continuous development of oil and gas fields in East Siberia and the Far East, the oil output in East Siberia and the Far East will reach 654.38 billion tons, and the output in the northwest oil-producing area will also reach 45 million tons. Saha and China will become new crude oil production centers. In 2008, most oil companies initially set the growth rate of their crude oil output as 1%. For example, TNK-вр Oil Company initially set the crude oil output in 2008 as 70 million tons (the crude oil output in 2007 was 69.37 million tons); The natural gas industry petroleum joint-stock company set the crude oil output in 2008 as 33.5 million tons (the crude oil output in 2007 was 32.7 million tons); The crude oil output of Tatar oil remained at the level of 2007, at 25.7 million tons; However, Surgut Oil&Gas Company, Slavic Oil Company and Bus Oil Company refused to give their predicted output, because according to the statistics of Russian Energy and Electric Power Integrated Dispatching Center, the crude oil output of these oil companies showed a certain downward trend in 2007: the crude oil output of Surgut Oil&Gas Company was 64.6 million tons, down1.5% year-on-year; The crude oil output of Bus Oil Company110.5 million tons, down 2% year-on-year; Slavic Oil Company's crude oil output decreased by 10.3% to only 20.9 million tons. Only Rosneft and Lukoil have confidence in the growth rate of crude oil production in 2008, and the former's crude oil production in 2007 was 6,543,800 tons. It is predicted that the crude oil output will increase by 1 1% to1.1/0.90 billion tons in 2008; The latter predicts that the crude oil output will increase by 5% in 2008. 5%, reaching 1. 0 1 billion ~10.02 billion tons.
The Russian Ministry of Industry and Energy predicts that by 20 15, Russian crude oil production may increase to 530 million tons, and in 2020 it will reach 550 million to 590 million tons. At the same time, Russia's crude oil processing capacity will also increase, reaching 200 million tons in 20 10 and 2150,000 tons in 2020.
(2) Natural gas: Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region is the most important natural gas producing area in Russia. By 2020, 90% ~ 92% of Russia's natural gas production will come from Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Region. By 20 10, the annual output of natural gas in eastern Russia will increase to 500 billion cubic meters. In addition, in order to maintain the economic security of the whole East Asia region, the Russian government also plans to develop natural gas complexes in the eastern region and establish a large-scale natural gas export production and processing system based on resource bases such as Irkutsk, Krasnoyarsk, Yakutia and Sakhalin.
In March 2006, the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources submitted to the government a strategic plan for the Russian Federation to explore and develop the oil and gas potential on the continental shelf by 2020. According to this plan, by 2020, the output of oil and gas resources on the Russian continental shelf will account for 20% of the total balance of oil and gas resources in Russia, the total reserves of exploitable oil and gas resources will reach 23 billion to 26 billion tons, and natural gas will reach 9 billion to 100 trillion cubic meters. These include crude oil reserves of 654.38+0 billion to 654.38+0.3 billion tons and natural gas of 654.38+0 billion to 20 trillion cubic meters. If this strategic plan is implemented, by 20 10, the crude oil output in the underground resource block of the Russian continental shelf is expected to reach 10 billion tons, and the natural gas output will be 30 billion cubic meters; By 2020, the output of crude oil will increase to 95 million tons and the output of natural gas will increase to 654.38+050 billion cubic meters.
3. Building a new oil refinery
Russian First Deputy Prime Minister sergei ivanov believes that in order to solve the problems of insufficient domestic refineries and crude oil processing capacity, new refineries should be built. Ivanov pointed out that in order to solve the problem of raw material export, more refineries must be established to produce petroleum products by themselves. At present, some large oil companies have realized the problems faced by the shortage of domestic refineries and are making plans to build refineries.
4. Develop the oil and gas export market and increase the oil and gas export volume.
Europe is the main export market of Russian crude oil and its products, accounting for about 90% of Russian crude oil exports. In the next 20-25 years, western and central European countries will remain Russia's largest oil export market, because all the national transportation infrastructure that Russia has formed is concentrated in Europe, which provides sufficient logistics guarantee to meet the oil demand in this region. With the increase of oil and gas exports from Sakhalin Island and the development of new oil and gas fields in East Siberia and Yakutia, by 2020, Russia's share of crude oil exports to Asia-Pacific countries will increase from 3% to 30%, and its natural gas exports will also increase from 5% to 25%.
However, due to the weak oil and gas transportation infrastructure in Russia, the demand of traditional foreign users for crude oil will increase moderately, the export profit will decrease, and the export capacity will be relatively insufficient, so the growth rate of Russian crude oil export will gradually decrease in the future.
In order to implement the long-term plan of exporting oil and gas to China and countries in the Asia-Pacific region, Russia plans to build a unified natural gas exploitation, transportation and supply system in East Siberia and the Far East, establish an oil and gas complex, actively carry out large-scale geological exploration of oil and gas deposits in the Sakhalin continental shelf and Kamchatka region, and tap the potential of supplying oil and gas resources to countries in the Asia-Pacific region. In addition, the Russian oil industry is looking for new oil sales markets, formulating new oil export strategies and building new transportation infrastructure.
5. Construction of new oil and gas pipelines
In recent years, with the increasing demand for crude oil in the international market, Russia's crude oil supply to foreign markets has increased by almost 20%. However, Russia's weak oil and gas transportation infrastructure and insufficient oil and gas pipeline transportation capacity have become serious obstacles to the implementation of the long-term development goals of energy strategy. Therefore, the Russian government plans to implement a series of oil and gas pipeline construction projects to open up new sales channels for Russian oil and gas in Europe, the Far East and Asia-Pacific countries. It is estimated that the oil transportation capacity of Russian export oil pipelines will increase by 1.2 times in 2065,438+00 and by 1.4 times in 2065,438+05.
The development direction of Russian oil and gas pipeline transportation system is:
(1) East Siberia-Pacific Oil Pipeline: According to Russian experts' prediction, the demand for oil and its products in Asia-Pacific countries will increase to151000 million tons by 20 10, and to19.7 million tons by 2020 and 2030. In order to open up a new crude oil sales market in the Asia-Pacific region, the Russian government has made a strategic decision to build the East Siberia-Pacific oil pipeline from Taishet-Skovorodino-Nakhodka. The annual oil transportation capacity of the East Siberia-Pacific oil pipeline is 80 million tons, including 30 million tons to China. In the first stage, the pipeline with a total length of 2000 kilometers from Teschette to Skovorodino will be built first, and then the pipeline to Nakhodka will be built; Before the pipeline to Nakhodka is completed, an oil branch line to China will be built first. The raw material supply bases for the Eastern Oil Pipeline are West Siberia, East Siberia and Yakutia, among which the oil fields in West Siberia will transport 24 million tons of oil for the Eastern Oil Pipeline and the oil fields in East Siberia and Yakutia will transport 56 million tons of oil for the pipeline. The eastern oil pipeline is contracted by Russian oil transportation company and is expected to be completed by the end of 2008. The payback period of this oil pipeline is tentatively set at 5-7 years.
The construction of the East Siberia-Pacific oil pipeline is of great significance to Russia, because the pipeline construction plan will not only promote the economic development of the whole Far East and provide impetus for Russia's economic revitalization, but more importantly, the export potential formed after the pipeline is put into use will promote the development of oil and gas fields in the eastern region, accelerate the establishment of new oil exploration centers in East Siberia and Yakutia, and catch up with the economic express train in the Asia-Pacific region through energy cooperation with countries in Northeast Asia.
(2) Northern Baltic Sea route: Further develop the Baltic Sea pipeline transportation system to make its annual crude oil transportation capacity reach 65 million tons, which is based on the oil transportation capacity of transportation routes in the Baltic Sea region and the requirements of international conventions for the safe transportation of petroleum and petroleum products. In addition, in order to expand the crude oil export volume to the American and European markets, Russia also plans to build a new oil pipeline system with an annual crude oil export volume of 654.38+200 million tons in the Barents Sea, and the preliminary scheme demonstration work is currently underway.
(3) Caspian Sea-Black Sea-Mediterranean Sea: Russia plans to increase the annual oil transportation to this region to 25-30 million tons by increasing the oil transportation capacity of the Atlauu-Samara oil pipeline. In addition, Caspian Pipeline Transportation Consortium Co., Ltd. plans to expand its pipeline transportation capacity, and the expanded oil transportation capacity will reach 67 million tons per year.
(4) Central Europe: Due to the limitation of oil transportation capacity in Bosporus Strait and Da Daniil Strait, Russia is carrying out the project of friendship and Adriatic pipeline system integration, so that Russian crude oil can be transported to the Croatian port of Omisali through the oil transportation terminal, and then the direction of Russia can be improved in stages (increasing by 5 million tons, 6.5438+million tons and 6.5438+05 million tons every year).
In order to increase the transportation capacity of Russian natural gas, ensure the domestic natural gas supply and promote the development of natural gas export transportation trunk lines, the Russian government plans to further develop the natural gas transportation system and build new natural gas pipelines while transforming the existing natural gas pipelines, so as to improve the transportation, processing and storage capacity of natural gas.
1) Nordic natural gas pipeline. Nordic natural gas pipeline is a new route to export Russian natural gas directly to Europe through Baltic waters, bypassing transit countries. The construction of this natural gas pipeline will improve the reliability of transporting natural gas to the European market and expand the supply of natural gas to European countries. The annual production capacity of Nordic natural gas pipeline is set at 65.438+09 billion ~ 30 billion cubic meters, and it is planned to start supplying natural gas through this pipeline in 2065.438+00.
2) North Tyumen-Torok Natural Gas Pipeline. The natural gas pipeline from North Tyumen to Tuoruoke refers to the route from the natural gas field located in North Tyumen to Tuoruoke, and this natural gas pipeline will become an important part of many natural gas transportation systems currently in use. This natural gas pipeline will improve the supply capacity of natural gas for daily consumption of industries and residents in northwest Russia, and at the same time ensure the export of natural gas through Yamal-Europe natural gas pipeline.
3) Expand Central Asia-Central Asia natural gas transportation system. The Central Asia-Central China natural gas transportation system refers to the main transportation trunk lines for exporting natural gas from Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and Gazprom is responsible for ensuring that Central Asia natural gas transits the Russian and European markets.
At present, Gazprom has decided to lay two natural gas pipelines in the eastern and western regions of China: the eastern line refers to the branch natural gas pipeline from Sakhalin to Vladivostok to China, and the western line refers to the branch natural gas pipeline from Krasnoyarsk-Novosibirsk-Novosibirsk to China via Gorno-Altaysk. It is estimated that natural gas will be transported to China from 20 1 1. By 2020, these two gas pipelines will deliver 30 billion cubic meters and 38 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China respectively.