On the one hand, this is because the performance of the two funds he participated in management is more outstanding. Among them, Guangfa High-end Manufacturing Fund earned 133.8% last year, becoming one of the most outstanding active equity funds in the whole market in 2020.
On the other hand, there is his "youth". He is a pure post-90s generation. After graduating from Peking University, he entered the securities market and was promoted to fund manager only four and a half years later. In the first year, the performance of funds involved in management entered the forefront of the industry.
Of course, there are some lucky points in this, but not all. Zheng Chengran grew up very fast, and he jumped three grades in primary school. Peking University majored in microelectronics and minored in economics. Graduate students studied finance, and joined the investment team after 20 15 four and a half years. Within the team, he is also famous for his quick learning ability and accurate grasp of the law.
At the same time, Zheng Chengran also has rare strength and pressure resistance of his peers. 20 19, 2020, the investment stage of industry research, starting from in-depth industry research, helps the investment team to grasp the investment opportunities in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, military industry and other sectors.
What kind of fund manager is he? The following dialogue may be able to answer.
Q: The products you participated in management achieved very good results in 2020. What is the process? Which operations are more critical?
Zheng Chengran: Most of the excess returns of the fund portfolio come from industries, such as photovoltaics and military industry. Individual stocks also contributed some alphas, and some heavy stocks performed well, basically grasping the most cattle stocks in the sector.
One is 2065438+September 2009, when the market sentiment was relatively high in February 2020, the fund portfolio bought a new energy vehicle and realized the floating profit. Second, in April, 2020, PV will be laid out at the low point of the market, and more excess returns will be held in the medium term.
There is also a new military industry in June 2020, with relatively high investment efficiency. At that time, from June to August, for more than a month, many military stocks rose greatly and contributed a lot to their net worth.
Q: What is the investment logic of electric vehicles?
Zheng Chengran: The investment logic of electric vehicles is relatively clear. The first driving force is Tesla's heavy volume. It is obvious for this industry that Tesla builds a factory in China to increase production. After the output of electric vehicles goes up, the cost will be reduced, and then the sales volume will be increased through price reduction. This is a long-term industrial logic.
In addition, not only the domestic electric vehicles, but also the sales of European and American countries will be better in 2020, because of the support of subsidy policy, which is what we expected.
Third, the policy of strongly supporting electric vehicles in Europe and America will also lead to the gradual withdrawal of domestic support policies, which has also been verified.
Q: With such strong logic, did you lighten up your position in 2020?
Zheng Chengran: Our methodology is to make money that fluctuates periodically in growth industries. In 20 19, I was the leader of the manufacturing research group, and my industry was new energy. At that time, when I recommended the allocation of investment departments, the valuation of electric vehicles was still relatively low. For example, the market value of a leading stock is 654.38+050 billion. By 2020, when the market consensus is high, the market value of this company has rushed to more than 500 billion. According to our company's research model, the medium-term valuation is 600 billion.
Q: Guangfa's investment in photovoltaic sector was quite successful this year, which was not only timely, but also heavy. What are the investment considerations for this piece?
Zheng Chengran: A leading photovoltaic stock was recommended by my investment team at the research stage. At that time, several fund managers had a high allocation ratio and did have good excess returns.
At that time, an important point made by our team was that under the background of overseas epidemic, those industries with overseas demand and domestic supply may have important investment opportunities. Photovoltaic, as the main industry in China, is one of the representative industries.
Photovoltaic has another particularity. The gap between supply and demand in its industry is particularly obvious in the first half of 2020, so the investment opportunities at that time are also particularly large.
Q: Is the gap between supply and demand caused by tight supply or demand explosion?
Zheng Chengran: At that time, both the supply side contracted and the demand side broke out.
On the demand side, the normal law of photovoltaic industry is that the demand curve will rise with the downward price, that is, the price decline will increase. In the first quarter of this year, the price of photovoltaic modules continued to fall, and the interval decline once reached 40%.
In addition, Europe and America were in a serious epidemic stage at that time. European and American countries have launched some fiscal stimulus plans, and new energy infrastructure is an important focus. At that time, we felt that the demand of photovoltaic industry would be better both at home and abroad.
Supply this end, just as the capacity of small enterprises is basically clear. The law of the photovoltaic industry is that the industry fluctuates greatly, and small enterprises may be cleaned up without orders for one or two consecutive quarters. However, after the supply side cleared, domestic and international demand broke out, and this gap between supply and demand was particularly obvious. Moreover, some leading companies have a lot of capacity building and production.
The fund manager of our company seized this opportunity at that time, which was basically the lowest position interval in the whole year and laid out this plate.
Q: How do you confirm what you said about the supplier?
Zheng Chengran: A lot of field research, verification of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. What is the downstream situation of this enterprise? How much did you buy upstream? What is the status of small enterprises in the same industry now? Is it in production? Or has it been closed? We have made in-depth verification through various channels.
Q: From the case of photovoltaic, you are more inclined to make money for growth?
Zheng Chengran: As far as the photovoltaic case is concerned, we have made "Davis Double Click" money (Shuang Sheng in performance and valuation).
On the one hand, the mismatch between the supply and demand of the industry's production capacity has led to a substantial increase in its subsequent performance, which is a short-term thing.
But photovoltaic is also a growth industry, so when its performance grows rapidly, it is easier for the market to give it a premium, and it will imagine its broad market space in the future and its valuation will be higher. Including now, the market has a relatively large expectation space for its future, which is an inevitable process for the market to develop to a certain stage.
Q: At the stage, it is the logic of Davis' double click. Will you still pay attention in the medium and long term?
Zheng Chengran: According to our methodology, I earn money that fluctuates periodically in growth industries. Because the upward stage of this cycle is the "fattest" stage of this industry's income and the stage with the highest investment efficiency.
Of course, we must follow these tracks for a long time before you can eat this paragraph.
Q: Long-term follow-up, but investment decisions will consider the efficiency of investment?
Zheng Chengran: We will consider some changes in market perception. The expectations of many industries are cyclical, and they will not be discounted all the time, nor can they be speculated. It has a certain period. When the stock price is expected to reach a certain stage, we will re-evaluate our position.
Q: This is very interesting. You have invested in many emerging growth industries, but your analytical framework is actually cautious and stable.
Zheng Chengran: Right.
Q: Is that the same idea for you to invest in consumer goods and technology?
Zheng Chengran: Yes, my ideas are relatively consistent, basically around my framework.
Q: What if none of the industries you follow have the opportunity to fluctuate periodically?
Zheng Chengran: Indeed, there may be only one or two opportunities for allocation of medium-sized industries in a year. When the market lacks such opportunities, I will arrange opportunities for leading companies in stable growth industries, such as household appliances and machinery industries, with stable development, clear leading advantages and relatively reasonable valuation.
Q: You attach great importance to the cost performance of the investment target, especially when its valuation is relatively high, and you will be more determined to quit. Will this miss some investment opportunities in industries that continue to perform strongly?
Zheng Chengran: If all kinds of investment methods are used well, they can all perform well. My method will pay more attention to cost performance.
This may have something to do with my personality. I'm still a little conservative. I think we should be cautious when the valuation is over-inflated, beyond its reasonable valuation range, or even when there is an obvious valuation bubble.
Q: How do you define the reasonable range of valuation yourself? How to identify bubbles?
Zheng Chengran: Some valuation bubbles don't need careful calculation, and they can be identified by common sense.
For example, the valuation of emerging companies in some industries exceeds that of global leading enterprises. I think this valuation is unreasonable from the perspective of common sense.
There are also some companies that can make long-term forecasts. According to its potential market space, the company's industry position and ability, they can make a forecast for the development in five years. What are the most optimistic and pessimistic situations, and is it worth investing now?
For example, a new energy enterprise, if we assume that it will be tens of billions of profits after five years, then its market value of 600 billion is the upper limit of phased valuation that we recognize. If you greatly exceed this valuation now, it means that you have overdrawn the future market space.
Q: Compared with long-term holding, is the main difference between you and the market the difference in cognition or the difference in information gathering ability?
Zheng Chengran: I think there must be cognitive differences. For example, in some industries, the market thinks that they have long-term high growth or long-term no opportunities, but I think there is great periodicity and volatility, which will definitely form differences in investment.
Q: Is the growth industry cycle very long?
Zheng Chengran: Most industries have cycles. Some industries can have good growth for many years in a row, but the supply fluctuates greatly. As long as the demand of most industries increases by 20% in the first year and continues to increase by 20% in the second year, the supply may increase by 100% in the third year, which is followed by various risks. This is the cycle.
Q: Tell me about your experience?
Zheng Chengran: My work experience is relatively simple. Both undergraduate and graduate students are from Peking University. Undergraduate students study microelectronics and graduate students study finance. After graduation, he entered the research and development department of Guangfa Fund, covering power equipment and new energy. In 2020, he was transferred to the Growth Investment Department, and now he is the fund manager of the Growth Investment Department.
Q: Did you spend less time in the research department than the average person, or did you make more progress?
Zheng Chengran: I have been in the research department for about four and a half years. The first two years are equivalent to the growth period, which is also the characteristic of Guangfa Fund and will give researchers a training period.
From 20 17, he was officially responsible for the research in the field of new energy and new energy vehicles. Objectively speaking, it is also relatively smooth. During this period, I basically grasped the main market of the plate and gave clear suggestions to the investment department when buying and selling.
Q: I didn't seem to have managed a fund at first. What is it mainly responsible for?
Zheng Chengran: I just arrived at the Growth Investment Department, and I am mainly responsible for the research work of the department. Before us, the Growth Investment Department was a fund manager and did not undertake specific research tasks. When our group (and a researcher) just passed the research department, they all had familiar fields, so they would undertake certain research work at the beginning.
Q: Do you find it difficult to switch from research to investment?
Zheng Chengran: It may be related to my idea. I don't think the nature of my job has changed much.
I feel that the pricing power of a company in an industry is still in the hands of the most closely followed frontline researchers for a long time. Researchers are immersed in this industry every day, and their understanding and tracking of this industry information must be profound. For me, my current job is to study the fundamentals. Relatively speaking, I now cover a wider range.
Q: You mentioned the importance of front-line tracking, so what details will you pay attention to during the investigation?
Zheng Chengran: I think the most important thing in the investigation is that you should be clear about the purpose of your participation in the investigation. We should ask some core questions around some essential problems and understand them. Then, through systematic research, some laws of the industry are summarized.
Another is daily tracking, collecting industry information and closely tracking industry trends, which is usually what researchers should do.
Q: For example, how did you do your research?
Zheng Chengran: Take photovoltaic as an example. At that time, we had a logic gap between supply and demand that needed to be verified. It doesn't take long for the demand side to verify, because the demand itself is greatly influenced by the prosperity of other industries, especially by policies, and enterprises may not be very clear about this matter.
But the research on supply is very important. I also learned such a clue by accident, so we investigated this logic many times to see what its technology is. Do other small businesses really quit? Finally, this logic is verified.
Q: At present, there are hundreds of people investigating listed companies. Will you attend?
Zheng Chengran: I may just look at the summary of the survey. This is a matter of working methods. A survey of hundreds of people, it is difficult to insert a question, and then you spend one day on the road and one day back, which affects the efficiency a little.
Q: If the market fluctuates greatly, will you consider countermeasures?
Zheng Chengran: Let me give you an example. I usually set a market value range for companies with heavy positions. Take Company N as an example, the market range is 300-600 billion yuan. If one day he soars and the market value exceeds 600 billion, I may have to reduce it a little, for example, if it falls below 300 billion, I will increase it a little, something like this.
Q: Do you attach great importance to the rationality of valuation?
Zheng Chengran: My methodology is to buy when the winning percentage is high and exit through winning percentage control. The winning percentage pays great attention to valuation. We are adjusting the positions of some varieties, and we also feel that the valuation is high and the winning rate is low.
Some stocks are still rising after being sold, and we don't regret it. Because investment can only make money within our cognitive range. Buy a ticket I am familiar with at the bottom, which is cost-effective and the winning rate of investment is more certain. When the valuation is expensive, it is necessary to reduce the position. This is my frame.
Q: What is the promising main line of 202 1?
Zheng Chengran: 202 1 I am mainly optimistic about two main lines. One is the global economic recovery, such as the pro-cyclical variety of crude oil chemicals.
The second main line is the strategic planning of the 14 th Five-Year Plan. This main line is relatively long-term, and it is necessary to wait until the price of the relevant company reaches a more reasonable position before considering selling.
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