There has always been a saying in the stock market called "seven losses, two draws and one profit", which means that 70% of the shareholders are losing money, about 20% can break even, and only 10% can make money. In other words, 90% of shareholders can't make money in the stock market. The same applies to fund managers.
There is a sensational million-dollar bet on the American stock market. In 2008, Buffett made a bet with five well-known Wall Street hedge institutions that after 10, the returns of these hedge funds could not beat the S&P 500 index funds. As a result, Buffett won a great victory, because these funds gave up Buffett in advance on 20 15.
From the results, from 2008 to 20 17, the total increase of S&P was 125.8%, and the annualized rate of return was 8.5%. However, the best-performing hedge fund, FOF, has a total return of only 87%, with an average annual growth rate of 6.5%. 20 17 a fund was liquidated.
You know, in 2008, the American stock market was still at a high point, and at the beginning of the bet, the stock market fell a lot. In the first year of ten years of gambling, it encountered a financial crisis, and the market fell by as much as 37%. In this case, Buffett still defeated hedge funds, which is enough to see the Excellence of index funds. If you can add a little investment strategy on this basis, then you can get higher returns.
Strategy 1: Regular fixed investment method. This is the easiest way. Invest a fixed amount every month, saving time and effort, and don't have to stare at the changes of the index all the time. Shortcomings are also obvious, lack of flexibility, and the rate of return is slightly lower than other strategies.
Strategy 2: valuation fixed investment method. The core of this method is to buy more when undervalued and buy less when overvalued. Take the historical P/E ratio of Shanghai Composite Index as an example.
The historical average price-earnings ratio (PE) of Shanghai Composite Index from 1999 to 2020 is 15.93 times, so we can make a fixed investment strategy according to the PE of 16 times.
Invested capital = initial investment x( 16 times P/E ratio/current PE)
Assuming that the initial investment is 1000 yuan, this month's Shanghai Composite Index PE is exactly 16 times.
Then the investment =1000x16/16 =1000 yuan.
If the stock market rises next month, the PE of the market will rise 20 times.
Then investment = 1000 x 16/20=800 yuan.
Next month, the stock market will fall, and the market PE will fall 10 times.
Then the investment =1000x1610 =1600 yuan.
The advantage of this enhanced fixed investment strategy is that we can invest more money when the valuation is low and less money when the valuation is high. Perfect in line with the smile curve of fixed investment, the rate of return of fixed investment will be higher than that of fixed investment, and the investment will be more flexible.
Of course, this investment strategy also has shortcomings, that is, there is no profit-taking strategy. When the stock market rises to 80 times P/E ratio, everyone knows that this valuation will not last long, and you not only don't stop taking profits quickly, but also keep investing money in it, so your yield will definitely be much lower than those who stop taking profits in time.
As the saying goes, you can buy an apprentice and sell a master.
And if you want to make a profit, then you will definitely introduce your own subjective judgment. Then the problem is coming. Foreign fund managers with many years of experience can't accurately predict the trend of the stock market. How to ensure that your subjective judgment is correct? If Xiaobai wants to beat the fund manager, the most important thing is to completely abandon subjective judgment. Since we have no ability to judge the rise and fall of the stock market, let's leave everything to the investment strategy. So now we introduce a third strategy.
Strategy 3: Value average strategy
What is the value average strategy? For example, the goal is no longer to invest 1 ,000 yuan per month, but to increase the market value of 1 ,000 yuan per month.
10 month 1 10,000 yuan fund; The market fell in February, and the market value of the fund in that month was 800 yuan. We will buy 1200 yuan this month. Ensure that the target market value reaches 2000 yuan; The market rose in March, and the market value of the fund in that month was 2,800 yuan. You only need to buy 200 yuan again this month. In April, the market continued to rise. The market value of the fund in that month was 4,300 yuan, exceeding the target market value of 4,000 yuan. 300 yuan's fund was redeemed.
The advantage of this fixed investment method is that if the market falls, you will buy more when you make a fixed investment next time, and you will buy more when you are undervalued. If the market goes up and the account is profitable, you will buy or sell less chips in the next investment, so as to control your position or make a profit, so that you can buy low and sell high.
It can also avoid the increase of the risk of human subjective judgment errors. For novices who have just come into contact with fixed investment funds, this strategy is worth a try.