the background of devaluation: the leaders and people of the Soviet Union believe that free market, financial openness and' free' elections and the abolition of government supervision are the cornerstones of the prosperity of the Soviet Union. At this time, Soviet leaders began to abandon unified leadership, opened the door, and even took the initiative to dissolve the Soviet Union.
The first step is the privatization of state-owned enterprises. State-owned enterprises are divided up through securities (shareholding system), and each person is allocated about 1,~15, rubles of state-owned assets. If the exchange rate at that time was US$ 3, to US$ 4,, this is not a small number. It can be said that the people of the whole Soviet Union are partying.
At the same time, the Soviet Union's finance has gradually opened up, and a large number of foreign banks have entered the Soviet Union. These "modern private banks without queuing", "smiling for customers" and "independent accounting" have mushroomed in every city in the Soviet Union. Their free coffee and kind smiles undoubtedly brought a feeling to the Soviet people: these foreign banks are much better than those state-owned banks! In this context, these foreign banks and financial institutions absorbed a large number of Soviet private and corporate ruble savings through various gray means with relatively high interest and a cup of free coffee. People's deposits moved from Soviet-funded banks to foreign banks. In addition, foreign banks also extort roubles from the Soviet-Russian central bank, state-owned banks and state-owned financial institutions through various gray means (loans for various engineering projects, etc., similar to the current fake real estate mortgage loans in China).
After the Soviet depositors and Soviet state-owned banks who borrowed money completely had enough rouble ammunition, an action began to criticize securities (stocks) in the market. "Those bonds are all bonds (stocks) of' state-owned enterprises with little ability to pay dividends'. It is better to throw them out for cash than to keep them useless! "The Soviet people began to sell bonds (stocks), bonds (stocks) plummeted. At the same time, foreign banks in the market began to quietly privatize bond purchases at the same time. In this way, the entire Soviet state-owned enterprise was sold by the Soviet people.
In the process of quietly purchasing bonds, foreign banks and financial institutions owe astronomical ruble debts, even if the annual interest is a huge amount, which is enough to drag down these foreign banks and make them bankrupt. However, the most jaw-dropping scene in the whole human financial market finally happened: at this time, the American friendly financial expert group put forward a proposal with a' friendly purpose'-to further relax the supervision of the free exchange of rubles and dollars to' confront' black market transactions. At that time, the Soviet Union was democratizing, and the' financial experts' and' independent media' in the United States and the Soviet Union repeatedly mocked the' administrative financial supervision means', describing the normal central bank's power and practice in financial supervision as' centralized behavior', while people were very excited about the newly-acquired political democracy. With this kind of friendly suggestion, financial supervision was liberalized without seeing the crisis behind.
after the financial opening up, the scene of private banks queuing to change dollars appeared. Why do people change rubles into dollars? Because there was hyperinflation in the Soviet Union. Why is hyperinflation happening? This is about the history of Soviet economic development. The economic growth of the Soviet Union has long relied on extensive investment. However, as early as the end of the 196s, the Soviet Union's financial, material and even human resources were already very tight, and the trend of economic growth rate was quite obvious. By the end of the 198s, the Soviet Union's production input factors had basically dried up. Under the supply system, all major consumer goods are supplied by ticket, but the supply of domestic goods is seriously insufficient, and the gap between market supply and residents' monetary income has reached about 5%. That is to say, someone has paid 1 rubles, but he can only buy 5 rubles of daily necessities at most with the ticket, and the remaining 5 rubles can only be kept in the bank. At the end of 198s, the Soviet people had a lot of deposits in the bank. Once the market economy was realized, people could freely buy and sell daily necessities. Under the condition of extremely scarce goods, the surplus ruble deposits would chase the short goods, leading to inflation. In other words, the price of the original 5-ruble commodity will rise to 1 rubles. Long-term shortage of goods and money surplus broke out in a short time when the market economy was open, and the accumulated energy was amazing, so hyperinflation began. Once hyperinflation occurs, people will think about how to preserve their value, and switching to a stable dollar is a good way. So people began to queue up to change dollars.
At this time, the anxious-looking Soviet Union has largely ignored these' private banks with good service and no need to queue up' and no longer provides free coffee! The smile they face has turned into a sneer: because at this time, in the eyes of private banks, they are no longer noble customers, but beggars! The panic in the exchange market intensified and soon came-the ruble changed from 1 ruble to 2.8 US dollars, and quickly collapsed and broke through 1 rubles to 1 US dollar. Foreign banks' foreign debts in rubles suddenly became insignificant. Through the media's exaggeration of panic, tearful people in the Soviet Union threw out every ruble and bought dollars. The ruble market soon collapsed without any suspense! The lowest actual depreciation of the whole old ruble is 112, times, and 4 new rubles: 1 US dollar, which means 4, old rubles: 1 US dollar.
the United States bought the original Soviet assets worth $28 trillion with only a few hundred million dollars.
The main reason for the devaluation of the ruble
The drop in oil price is one of the three main reasons for the ruble's plunge
According to experts, the plunge in international oil price, western sanctions against Russia and the influence of a strong dollar on emerging markets are the three main reasons for the ruble's plunge.
Joseph Broussous Eiras, chief economist of American consulting firm McGladrey LLP, said that the devaluation of the ruble is directly related to the recent drop in oil prices, and the Russian economy relies heavily on oil exports. Oil is an important source of tax revenue for the Russian government, and the falling oil price has also reduced the Russian government's ability to support its own currency.
Robert savage, CEO of CCTrack, a hedge fund owned by citic capital, believes that the sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia have limited Russian financing. Although Russia has a lot of foreign exchange reserves, on the one hand, it has to support the falling ruble, and on the other hand, it has to pay foreign debts denominated in dollars, which makes Russia stretched.
In addition, the strength of the US dollar has put pressure on the currencies of emerging economies, including the ruble. Savage said that because of the different economic situation, the interest rates in the United States and Europe are completely opposite. The market expects that the interest rates in the United States will rise and the interest rates in Europe will fall. The expectation of the market and the sustained recovery of the American economy make the dollar appreciate continuously, and international capital begins to flow back from emerging markets to the United States, and the currencies of Russia and other countries face downside risks. When the market's concern about the ruble intensifies, the risk of capital flight will also increase, and the panic of investors will further heat up, and the ruble's plunge will be inevitable.
The plunge of the ruble has also triggered speculation about whether there are any investment institutions shorting it on a large scale. In this regard, Wall Street people pointed out that speculation only accounts for a small part of the reasons for the ruble's decline. At present, the market lacks liquidity, and there is no phenomenon that investment institutions short the ruble on a large scale.
Some domestic enterprises that export to Russia or are affected
Will the collapse of ruble exchange rate affect China's market? According to industry insiders, some domestic enterprises with a large proportion of exports to Russia may be affected.
Xu Peng of Datong Securities said that light industrial products, such as clothing, shoes and leather, are the traditional export shares of China to Russia. In addition, the proportion of electromechanical exports is also large. From the perspective of rising speed, the export of China's automobile industry to Russia is occupying an increasing proportion.
only from the field of family cars, there are more than 1 domestic family car brand enterprises exporting to Russia. The highest annual sales is close to 25, vehicles, and the decline of the ruble will undoubtedly hit these export car companies-after all, local sales are settled in rubles, and the collapse of the ruble will cause obvious exchange losses for these companies. As of yesterday, some car companies listed in Hong Kong have issued a profit warning that this year's net profit will drop sharply, and the performance of the stock in the Hong Kong market is also very bleak.
The plunge of ruble will inevitably bring a blow to traditional light industrial products. UBS Investment Liu Dongsheng advises investors to pay attention to risks in the short term if they find that the main business of individual stocks in their hands includes projects exported to Russia.
will the plunge of the ruble have a positive impact on domestic related enterprises? Liu Dongsheng believes that although the decline of the ruble exchange rate means that goods can be bought from Russia at a lower price, this sharp decline will put the relevant economies into a state of "shock", and commodities such as chemicals, logs, pulp and electronic goods imported from Russia may come to a standstill.
"Overall, the plunge of the ruble exchange rate is still at the level of short-term impact, and there is no sign of a substantial impact on the domestic real economy." Xu Peng said.
1. The collapse of international oil price, western sanctions against Russia and the influence of strong dollar on emerging markets are the three main reasons for this round of ruble collapse. Because of the different economic situation, the interest rates in the United States and Europe are completely opposite. The market expects that the interest rates in the United States will rise and the interest rates in Europe will fall. The expectation of the market and the sustained recovery of the American economy make the dollar appreciate continuously, and international capital begins to flow back from emerging markets to the United States, and the currencies of Russia and other countries face downside risks. When the market's concern about the ruble intensifies, the risk of capital flight will also increase, and the panic of investors will further heat up, and the ruble's plunge will be inevitable.
2. Experts pointed out that if Russia really wants to reverse the decline of the ruble, it needs to meet three conditions: first, the oil price will stop falling and stabilize; second, the relationship between Russia and Europe and the United States will ease; third, the Russian central bank will spend huge sums of money to support the ruble and increase the liquidity among banks.
Why did the ruble collapse?-:First of all, the state-owned enterprises were privatized, and the state-owned enterprises were divided by securities (shareholding system), and each person was allocated about 1,-15, rubles of state-owned assets. If it was 3,-4, dollars at the exchange rate at that time, it was not a small number. It can be said that all the people in the Soviet Union ...
Why did the ruble plummet? What caused the Russian ruble to plummet? Russia's economy is too single, which is basically driven by oil and gas. If the oil price falls and the dollar appreciates, the ruble will fall rapidly. This time, it is mainly caused by a series of American economic policies against Russia.
Did the collapse of the Soviet ruble happen overnight? Or is there a process? If there is a process, what is it? What happened overnight
Did the ruble crash have a great impact on China? Why did the ruble crash reveal the secret-:The reason for the ruble crash was that the western countries led by the United States were conspiring to sanction the Russian economy
The reason for the Russian economic collapse-:1. The Russian ruble depreciated sharply, and the continued decline will cause the import cost of Russia to rise significantly, which will bring imported inflationary pressure to Russia. When inflationary pressure increases, there will be a risk of stagflation. At the same time, it will further increase Russia's foreign debt burden and reduce the confidence of international investors in the Russian economy, which will lead to the further withdrawal of foreign capital in Russia. 2. Although the currencies of various countries, including the RMB, have been falling since the appreciation of the US dollar, the ruble is the most violent. The reason is the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine. NATO countries have suppressed the Russian economy through various measures. It is not excluded to further depress the oil price through the financial market and further suppress Russia.
Why did the ruble depreciate after the disintegration of the Soviet Union?-:Because of the implementation of market economy reform and shock therapy, the whole industrial system was completely paralyzed, and there was no material supply in the market, but people still had a lot of coins in their hands, so the prices of the only remaining materials would naturally go up wildly. The currency naturally depreciates wildly.
How much did the ruble depreciate after the disintegration of the Soviet Union?-:In 1992, the annual inflation rate in Russia was as high as 2,%. In 1991, US$ 1 = .9 rubles. Or the millionaire (old ruble) was a millionaire. With the disintegration of the former Soviet Union, the official exchange rate of the ruble depreciated sharply for the first time in 3 years on November 1, 199. From .6 roubles to 1.8 roubles ...
Will the RMB follow in the footsteps of the rouble crash?-:No, the rouble crash was caused by the United States, and China has enough foreign exchange reserves to cope with this risk.
What was the devaluation of the rouble after the disintegration of the Soviet Union? Due to "shock therapy", the people lost more than 9 billion rubles in 1992 alone. The reform pushed most Russians to the poverty line. Even abject poverty. In 1992, the annual inflation rate in Russia was as high as 2,%. In 1991, US$ 1 was equal to .9 rubles. Or a millionaire (old ruble) was a millionaire. 2. In November 1994 ...
Why did China stop the appreciation of the RMB, while Russia did stop the ruble from plummeting-:China has more than one trillion US Treasury bonds. If the RMB appreciates by 2%, The United States can pay back 2% less. The Russian ruble plummeted, causing prices to soar, and people's savings for many years were shrinking wildly, triggering a snap-up, and then the bank's cash would be in a hurry, and the bank would have no money, so enterprises could not survive and the economy would collapse rapidly.