Iran's nuclear program began in the late 195s, and most of its nuclear technologies were imported from the United States and western countries which were closely related to that time. After the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, its nuclear energy project was at a standstill. In the early 199s, Iran began to talk with Russia about resuming the construction of nuclear power plants, and signed the Agreement on the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy with Russia. The United States, which broke off diplomatic relations with Iran in 198, was very dissatisfied with Iran-Russia nuclear cooperation. It has repeatedly accused Iran of secretly developing nuclear weapons under the cover of "peaceful use of nuclear energy" and has always adopted a policy of "containment" against it. After the "9.11" incident, the United States regarded Iran as a country supporting terrorism and one of the "axis of evil" countries.
in February p>23, after Iran announced the discovery and extraction of uranium, its nuclear program was immediately "seriously questioned" by the United States and attracted great attention from the international community. On September 12 of the same year, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution, demanding that Iran disclose its nuclear program before the end of October, so as to clarify all its nuclear activities, sign the Additional Protocol to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as soon as possible, allow the IAEA to conduct more stringent surprise inspections and terminate the test of enriching uranium.
under the mediation of France, Germany and Britain, Iran signed the Additional Protocol to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons on December 18th, 23. (background of Iran's nuclear issue)
current situation of Iran's nuclear issue
In order to make full use of nuclear energy resources, Iran has started its nuclear energy development plan since the late 195s, and has successively invested a lot of money to build a nuclear power plant, six nuclear research centers and five uranium processing facilities.
at present, Iran's nuclear program has reached a critical stage, namely, the construction stage of nuclear fuel cycle system. After the completion of this system, it can provide fuel for Iran's nuclear power plants and research institutions, and at the same time, it can further improve the abundance of enriched uranium, so that Iran can obtain weapons-grade highly enriched uranium.
It is reported that Iran has discovered uranium resources in its central part and is building uranium enrichment facilities based on high-speed centrifuge technology to prepare for the completion of a complete nuclear fuel cycle system; Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran has been built with the help of Russia; Iran is also building a heavy water reactor, which will enable Iran to obtain plutonium from nuclear waste more effectively. According to the intelligence of the United States and western countries, Iran has now entered the nuclear threshold, but it has not been able to obtain weapons-grade enriched uranium or plutonium needed to make nuclear weapons.
former Iranian president Mohammad Khatami announced in a televised speech on February 9, 23 that Iran has discovered uranium in Yazd area and successfully extracted uranium. Iran will mine uranium and build uranium conversion and enrichment facilities to establish a complete nuclear fuel cycle system.
Iran revealed in October 23 that Tehran Nuclear Research Center had conducted plutonium recovery test. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that Iran has separated 1 grams of plutonium.
On September 21st, 24, Iranian Vice President and Chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization, Raza Agazadeh, said that Iran had begun to use part of 37 tons of "uranium yellow cake" (that is, uranium ore) for uranium conversion test.
On January 1st this year, Iran announced that it had developed the technology of "mixed fractionation" to extract "uranium yellow cake" needed for uranium enrichment from uranium ore. This technology has made Iran take a step towards building its own nuclear fuel cycle system.
uranium enrichment is a key link in the production of nuclear fuel. Iran suspended its uranium enrichment activities in October 23 and all its peripheral activities related to uranium enrichment in November 24. However, in August 25, Iran restarted uranium conversion activities as a preparatory stage for uranium enrichment.
Iran's nuclear issue has a long history. The United States has always accused Iran of implementing a secret nuclear weapons development plan since the mid-198s, while Iran has always denied that it has a nuclear weapons development plan. Its nuclear plan is for the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and a complete nuclear fuel cycle system is established to ensure the nuclear fuel supply of nuclear power plants by self-reliance. The nuclear storm started on August 15th, 22 when the Iranian opposition organization, the Iranian National Resistance Committee, revealed to the media that Iran was secretly building two nuclear facilities, and it has continued to this day. Now, the memorabilia about the Iranian nuclear issue in the past two years are summarized as follows:
As of April 25, the EU and Iran held several rounds of negotiations, but they could not reach an agreement on some key issues, and the negotiations were deadlocked.
On May 25th, 25, the three EU countries and Iran agreed at the meeting of foreign ministers that the EU would put forward a comprehensive plan to promote cooperation with Iran in the fields of technology and nuclear energy within about two months, and the negotiations between the two sides would be resumed in August of that year.
On August 5th, the European Union acknowledged Iran's right to peaceful use of nuclear energy in its proposal to Iran, but urged Iran to abandon all activities related to uranium enrichment and provide nuclear fuel from other countries instead.
On August 8th, Iran restarted the uranium conversion equipment in the central city of Isfahan, and the negotiations between Iran and the EU were once again deadlocked.
On September 24th, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution by voting, pointing out that Iran has repeatedly failed to perform and violated the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and other relevant documents, but did not explicitly request that the Iranian nuclear issue be reported to the UN Security Council immediately.
in early October, Russia suggested that Iran should be allowed to engage in uranium conversion activities, and the subsequent uranium enrichment activities should be transferred to Russia to ensure that its nuclear technology will not be used for military purposes.
On November 24th, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency decided not to refer the Iranian nuclear issue to the UN Security Council for the time being, so that Iran and the EU could hold consultations on the compromise proposed by Russia.
On December 21st, senior officials of the European Union and Iran made contact on the Iranian nuclear issue in Vienna, and agreed that the two sides would meet again on January 18th, 26 to seek common ground on resolving their differences on the Iranian nuclear issue.
on December 24th, Russia formally proposed to Iran to establish a uranium enrichment joint venture with Iran in Russia.
on January 3, 26, Iran announced that it would restart its nuclear fuel research facility.
On January 7th, Iran and Russia started talks on Russian proposal.
on January 1th, Iran officially opened the nuclear fuel research facility.
in the spring of p>26, the confrontation between the west and Iran on the nuclear issue has entered a very dangerous stage. The controversial Iranian President Mahmoud Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced on April 11th that Iran has refined low enriched uranium with a concentration of 3.5%. The international community's concern about the development of Iran's nuclear program has suddenly accelerated.
in response to Iran's current hard line, a group of western media, led by the American New Yorker magazine, have reported that "the United States plans to launch a military strike against Iran's nuclear targets", and the "theory of using force" has been rampant for a while. However, the report on Iran's nuclear program made by ElBaradei, chairman of the International Atomic Energy Agency, on April 28th can hardly give Iran a favorable evaluation. The development from diplomatic mediation to sanctions, as well as the shadow of air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities by western countries led by the United States, have made the Iranian nuclear issue the most urgent and intractable issue in current international relations.
Tracing back to the source of the Iranian nuclear issue
The main reason for the current crisis of the Iranian nuclear issue goes far beyond Iran itself, but is deeply rooted in a series of complicated international relations, including the intertwined interests and conflicts between Iran and the West, Iran and Israel, Iran and the Arab world, the Arab world, the United States and Europe around the nuclear program, and the Shia theocracy in Iran.
from the historical events, the origin of the above relationships can be traced back to the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, the Iran-Iraq war that lasted almost the whole 198s, the internal differences in the Arab world aggravated by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and even the impact of the development of terrorist forces on the western system after the September 11th incident.
the reason why the international community is worried about Iran's nuclear program lies not in whether Iran, as a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, has the right to develop nuclear energy peacefully, but in Iran's failure to convince the international community that its nuclear energy development is entirely for peaceful purposes. The international community is further worried that Iran may have another nuclear program for manufacturing nuclear weapons besides accepting international nuclear supervision. At a time when terrorism and weapons of mass destruction are increasingly becoming a menace to the international community, an Iran with nuclear weapons and inextricably linked with terrorist organizations in the eyes of the West is totally intolerable to the West. This also explains the bottom line of the United States: Iran must not possess nuclear weapons.
behind Iran's toughness and western intimidation, how far is Iran from the bottom line of America? According to the basic knowledge of making nuclear weapons, uranium ore produced in natural conditions needs to be processed into so-called uranium enrichment body (commonly known as "yellow cake"), and then converted into uranium tetrafluoride (UF4), which is further converted into gaseous uranium hexafluoride (UF6), and then processed into low enriched uranium by centrifuge (that is, the technological breakthrough announced by Iran at present). The low enriched uranium can be further enriched into high enriched uranium, which can be used to produce civil nuclear energy and nuclear weapons.
If Iran's statement is true, according to the estimation of relevant experts, it is still 13 years and 7 months away from producing highly enriched uranium needed to make an atomic bomb. But what worries the international community is that Iran will not be satisfied with the 164 centrifuges it currently has-Iran has claimed to build 3, centrifuges by the end of this year. It is estimated that a unit of this size will be able to produce highly enriched uranium for an atomic bomb within 271 days. Iran's Netanzi nuclear plant has a designed installed capacity of 5, centrifuges. Assuming that it is built and fully operated before the American bomb falls, it only takes 16 days to produce the amount of highly enriched uranium required for a nuclear bomb.
last year, Russia proposed to establish a cooperative nuclear fuel plant on its territory to solve the deadlock, mainly to avoid Iran completing the whole process of enriching uranium, that is, transferring the stage after the "yellow cake" to Russia for processing. The production of low enriched uranium claimed by Iran indicates that Iran has mastered the whole process technology of enriched uranium. Therefore, Ahmadinejad proudly declared on April 11th that Iran has since joined the nuclear club.
Go its own way
After the Iranian nuclear issue was reported to the Security Council in February this year, the international community did not give up solving the issue under the diplomatic framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency. However, the hard-line forces, represented by Ahmadinejad, who advocate the development of the nuclear program, have become the main voice of Iranian diplomacy at least for now. This mentality of insisting on the independent development of Iran's nuclear industry mainly comes from the new generation of Iranian leaders who grew up in the Iran-Iraq war in 198-1988. They not only questioned the Western nuclear non-proliferation commitment, but also dismissed the taboo of nuclear weapons.
during the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam used chemical weapons against the Iranian army, but when almost the whole Arab world and the west supported Iraq at that time, world public opinion criticized Saddam's behavior very little. When ideological and geopolitical considerations became the core of decision-making, the world acquiesced and even condoned Saddam's behavior. Ray Takeyh, a senior researcher on Middle East studies at the American Council on Foreign Relations, pointed out in the National Interest magazine this spring that for a new generation of leaders like Ahmadinejad, who was a veteran of the Iran-Iraq war, the war taught them the belief that national independence and territorial integrity can only be guaranteed by their own development, and it is not feasible to expect international conventions and western goodwill.
In Iran's view, American support for Israel's actual possession of nuclear weapons and the recent treaty on nuclear cooperation between the United States and India show that the United States-led West has double standards on the issue of nuclear non-proliferation-it can completely ignore the fact that Israel and India are not signatories to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, give them a green light to develop the nuclear industry and even nuclear weapons, and make repeated exceptions; However, as a signatory to the treaty, Iran can be deprived of the right to use nuclear energy simply because it is at odds with the United States.
under the double standards of the western world, the independent development of nuclear energy and even the ultimate production of nuclear weapons have become Iran's double guarantee of maintaining national dignity and security. In the two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the overwhelming superiority of the conventional forces of the US military and the recent rise in the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Iran's nuclear facilities have convinced Iranian hardliners that only nuclear deterrence can prevent Iran from becoming the next Saddam or Taliban. This view is accompanied by the strengthening of the US military presence in the Gulf region, the acceleration of the global democratization process in the United States, and the threat of regime change, which has enhanced the urgency of Iran's establishment of nuclear deterrence.
Ahmadinejad believes that the nuclear issue is only the first step for the United States to challenge Iran's theocracy. Even if Iran stops its nuclear program according to the requirements of the United States, the United States will still use human rights and democracy in Iraq as an excuse to advance step by step until the regime since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 was overthrown. The appropriation of $85 million requested by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for "promoting the development of domestic democratic forces in Iran" is also considered as one of the steps for the United States to realize regime change in Iran.
Tehran's power structure
According to the Iranian Constitution, Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of the country, is the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and also controls the state propaganda machine and the state judicial power.
The decision-making body of Iran's foreign policy is the National Supreme Security Council (SNSC), which is currently led by Larijani, who is also Iran's chief negotiator in this nuclear crisis. But Khamenei has the final say on the decision of the Supreme Security Council. At the seminar on the Iranian nuclear issue held by the American Council on Foreign Relations on April 5th, Mahmood Sariolghalam, a professor of state relations at the National Iranian University, said that judging from Khamenei's 17-year history in power, he did not want to achieve reconciliation with the West, nor did he want confrontation with the West.
On the other hand, there are a large number of moderate reformers in Iran's Parliament and the Expediency Council led by former President Ali Rafsanjani. Today, the domestic economy and unemployment problems in Iran are increasingly prominent (75% of the population in Iran is under 3 years old), and solving the domestic development problems has become the focus of attention of the top reformers and the general public.
under this unique diplomatic and internal decision-making mechanism, Iran's domestic livelihood issues are increasingly prominent, which makes the international community hopeful that Iran can achieve a solution to the nuclear issue through internal wrestling. This is why the international community has chosen a bright future of cooperation with Iran, and on the other hand, it has adopted a soft and hard strategy of pressure including sanctions.
Today, with Iran's increasingly tough stance, the voice calling for waving a big stick is also increasing. Also at the seminar of the Council on Foreign Relations on April 5, the Middle East Policy Institute of the Brookings Institution.