China is in a rapidly aging society, the population peak will come in seven or eight years, and the problem of providing for the aged will become more and more serious. According to the China Academy of Social Sciences World Social Security Research Center's China Pension Actuarial Report 20 19~2050, the national basic endowment insurance fund for urban enterprise employees will run out of accumulated balance around 2035, and the current balance may reach negative 1 1.28 trillion yuan in 2050, which is very stressful. From 20 18 to 20 19, the number of retirees in China's basic old-age insurance increased by 5120,000, and the total number of retirees reached123100,000, and the expenditure of pension insurance fund reached 4,922.8 billion yuan. This year, in order to cope with the epidemic situation, China introduced preferential policies to reduce the part of the old-age insurance premiums borne by enterprises. It is expected that the endowment insurance fund will definitely make ends meet this year. However, in 2020, the state still requires the basic pension for retirees to continue to increase by 5%, and many old people's pensions will reach 3,000 to 4,000 yuan, greatly improving their living standards. Why does the country continue to promote pension growth under great pressure?

First of all, the pension increase system is determined by the Social Insurance Law, not by the income and expenditure of pension funds. In accordance with the provisions of the Social Insurance Law, the state establishes a normal adjustment mechanism for basic pensions, and adjusts the basic pensions of retirees in a timely manner according to the increase in social wages and rising prices. According to our pension calculation formula, the pensions of retirees in 2020 will all be calculated by the social average wage of 20 19. In 20 19 years, the average social wage in various places continued to increase by more than 8%~ 10%. In order to be fair, the pensions of retirees should continue to be adjusted before 2020. In addition, in 20 19, the national consumer price level rose by 2.7%, and the prices of various daily necessities kept rising. In order to ensure retirement, the adjustment of the old people's living standard pension has also become an important adjustment factor.

Second, the state finance will ensure the continuous operation of the endowment insurance fund. The Social Insurance Law also stipulates that when the endowment insurance fund is insufficient to pay, it will be subsidized by the government. In 20 16, the accumulated balance of endowment insurance fund in Heilongjiang province was negative 26.2 billion yuan, which was fully supported by financial subsidies. In 20 17, governments at all levels subsidized the endowment insurance fund by 800.4 billion yuan. From 1998 to 20 19, the central government's subsidies to the basic old-age insurance fund for enterprise employees totaled more than 4 trillion yuan, of which 526 1 100 million yuan was allocated in 20 19. According to the 2020 fiscal budget, the amount of financial subsidies to social security funds at all levels is as high as 21900 million yuan, so the state is a solid guarantee for the endowment insurance fund.

Third, the state has a risk reserve. Since the establishment of the National Social Security Fund Council in 2000, the investment income has been very good. In 20 19, the social security fund's equity investment income was 29171800 million yuan, and the investment return rate was 14.06%. The national social security fund's rights and interests are as high as 2 1376554.38+0 billion yuan, with a cumulative net financial allocation of 959.582 billion yuan and a cumulative investment appreciation of 65.438+0654.38+078069 billion yuan.

Fourth, the state holds a huge share in state-owned assets. Starting from 20 17, the state requires that 10% of the shares of state-owned enterprises be transferred to the social security fund, and the transfer amount has now exceeded10 billion yuan. China has trillions of shares in state-owned enterprises, which is enough to cope with various risk crises.

Fifth, the insured population can continue to expand. Many people ignore that in 20 19 years, the number of employed people in China was 7747 10000, and the actual number of people participating in the basic old-age insurance was only 31kloc-0/77000, and the participation rate was just over 40%. As long as the publicity on the benefits of participating in the insurance is continuously strengthened, more and more young people will participate in the old-age insurance and share the corresponding aging pressure.

In recent years, China's economy has maintained a medium-high speed growth. I don't think this trend will change much after the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic is eliminated. Social progress and development can bring us greater old-age security. Therefore, China's pension system has a very strong supporting capacity in recent years, and will not lead to crisis, which is also the reason why the country is not in a hurry to promote delayed retirement.