The presidents of seven overseas branches of Xinhua News Agency commented on the developing regional situation in writing.
Asia-Pacific region: regional relations are complicated by the acceleration of the "return to Asia" of the United States.
Xinhuanet Hong Kong 65438+20 10 On February 26th, on the Asian international stage, the figure of the United States, which is far away from the other side of the ocean, was quite prominent. On the agenda of the US president's visit, he has visited Asia for the longest time. The powerful American fleet keeps showing off its strength in Asian waters. This year, due to the deepening of the US strategy of "returning to Asia", the international relations in the Asian region are becoming increasingly complicated.
The "Return to Asia" strategy was publicly put forward by the US government in July 2009, aiming to re-establish and enhance the dominant position of the United States in Asia. President Obama described himself as the first "president with a heart of peace" in the United States and was eager to "play a leading role" in Asia. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a deep understanding: "The future of the United States is closely linked to the future of the Asia-Pacific region, and the future of this region depends on the United States."
America's "return to Asia" is not only a strategy, but also an acceleration. Looking through the diplomatic calendar of the United States this year, from the president of the United States to diplomatic and defense officials, they traveled through Asia like a lantern. The "2+2" bilateral talks mechanism between foreign ministers and defense chiefs has expanded from the United States and Japan to more countries. The United States has become a "resident force" in Asia.
Obama attended international and regional conferences in Asia, visited Indian countries for a long time, and held the US-ASEAN summit in new york. From June 5438 to1October 065438 this year, Obama visited India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan successively, and stayed in India for four days, painstakingly promoting the partnership with India.
Hillary's round-trip trip to Asia is even more frequent. On June 5438+065438+1October this year, on the eve of Obama's visit to many Asian countries, she led her department to step into many Asian countries and urged the United States to "participate in Asian affairs from strategic, political, multilateral, economic and trade aspects." Almost at the same time, Secretary of Defense Gates was also active in Asia.
Some commentators pointed out that the US President, Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense appeared on the Asian stage in three ways at the same time, which is rare for American diplomacy.
America's "return to Asia" is a combination of words and deeds, and diplomatic and military cooperation has been promoted. The United States not only increased its troops in Afghanistan and consolidated the military presence of its allies in Asia, but also conducted military exercises in Asia. At the end of July, the US air and sea cluster sailed into the eastern waters of South Korea and held the largest military exercise between the United States and South Korea in 34 years. In August this year, an American aircraft carrier made a high-profile visit to Vietnam and sailed into the South China Sea, and then the United States and South Korea held military exercises in the Sea of Japan and the Yellow Sea. At the end of the year, just after the four-day US-South Korea military exercise ended, an eight-day US-Japan military exercise appeared immediately, which was six times the size of the US-South Korea military exercise.
In the US-Japan military exercise in early February, 65438, the aircraft carrier George Washington led 20 warship clusters, plus the B-52 strategic bomber known as the "air fortress" and other 150 fighters, 1 10,000 US soldiers participated. Japan has invested more than 34,000 troops and dispatched 40 ships and 250 fighter planes. The magazine stressed that this is Japan's largest military action in peacetime. The United States' continuous military exercises in Asia are not a whim, but a strategic plot. In a word, Secretary of Defense Gates said that the United States "is considering readjusting the global deployment of the US military, one of which is to strengthen its troops in Asia".
In the process of accelerating its "return to Asia", the United States directly intervened in disputes among Asian countries. Whether it is the Cheonan incident, the Diaoyu Islands incident, the South China Sea dispute or the utilization of Mekong resources, the United States is actively involved.
What the United States has done in Asia naturally has a profound purpose. The New York Times commented that the United States is restoring its alliance with Japan and South Korea during the Cold War and strengthening its strength in other parts of Asia. The United States should not only use the US-Japan-ROK military alliance to build a military plate in Northeast Asia, but also try to strengthen relations with Vietnam and other countries by intervening in the South China Sea dispute, and form a US-led military map in Southeast Asia.
Looking at the situation in Asia this year and the behavior of the United States, it is not so much that the United States is accelerating its "return to Asia" as it is trying to pull more countries in Asia into its sphere of influence. To sum up the results of America's "return to Asia" in Obama's words is that "the United States has strengthened its existing alliance, deepened its new partnership and re-established its relations with regional organizations including ASEAN". (The writer is the director of the Asia-Pacific General Branch of Xinhua News Agency)
EU: Entering the Transition Period in Pain
Xinhuanet Brussels 65438+February 26th (Reporter Liu Jiang) In 20 10, the economic and political structure in Europe has undergone the most profound changes since the end of the cold war. With the sovereign debt crisis as an important symbol, the EU has entered a major turning point from "post-Cold War" to "post-crisis" in a series of economic and social "pains".
Since the beginning of this year, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and other countries have fallen into sovereign debt difficulties to varying degrees, leading to financial market turmoil and euro stability. At the same time, it also triggered a series of large-scale protests, demonstrations and even social unrest. Greece and Ireland, which were most affected by the crisis, were forced to seek external assistance in May and June this year 165438+ 10 respectively. At present, the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone is still spreading, and the possibility of aggravation cannot be ruled out.
On the surface, the "debt tsunami" in the euro zone is a debt and financial problem, but the deep-seated reason is the result of the long-term imbalance of European economic development model. First of all, there is an imbalance between European economic integration and monetary integration. Although the euro zone uses a unified currency, it lacks a strong fiscal policy and discipline, and the labor market liberalization and technology research and development are relatively backward, which has led to the stagnation of labor productivity in the EU for many years.
Secondly, there is an imbalance between European economic integration and political integration. The economic integration of the European Union started earlier and made rapid progress, but the political integration was difficult and tortuous, which greatly restricted the governance capacity of the euro zone. In addition, there is an imbalance between the development model of European capital welfarism and the demand for sustainable development that takes into account fairness and efficiency. For a long time, some countries in southern Europe, especially Greece, have unilaterally emphasized "high wages, high welfare and high subsidies", resulting in huge fiscal deficits and high government debts.
In order to deal with this crisis, the EU has taken four measures: First, it introduced the Greek rescue mechanism of 1 10 billion euros and the standby rescue mechanism of 750 billion euros, and took out 62.7 billion euros from this standby mechanism to help Ireland; The European Central Bank continues to replenish liquidity to financial institutions and purchase national debt of euro zone countries; Second, EU member states, especially countries in debt crisis, are tightening their finances. Third, reform the system and mechanism to improve the economic governance of the EU, especially the euro zone, by strengthening fiscal discipline, building a new macroeconomic risk monitoring mechanism, strengthening economic policy coordination and establishing a sustained crisis response mechanism; The fourth is to formulate the 10 economic development strategy with the goal of "intelligent growth", "sustainable growth" and "inclusive growth", and accelerate economic recovery and promote a new round of growth by changing the development mode and adjusting the industrial structure. Despite the sovereign debt crisis, since the second half of this year, the economies of the euro zone and the European Union have shown obvious recovery momentum, and the overall performance for the whole year is better than expected. Recently, the European Commission has greatly raised its growth forecast for this year, in which the economic growth rate of the euro zone this year has been raised from 0.9% predicted in spring to 1.7%, and that of the European Union has been raised from 1% to 1.8%. Last year, the economies of the euro zone and the European Union both experienced negative growth. However, the current employment situation in Europe is very grim. As of June 5438+00 this year, the unemployment rate in the euro zone has climbed to 10. 1%, setting a new high in recent years. In addition, the recovery progress of EU countries is uneven, and Greece, Ireland, Spain and other countries will still experience negative growth.
Last year, the Lisbon Treaty came into effect in June+February, 5438. However, in the past year, the political integration of the European Union was still struggling and made little progress, mainly in four aspects: First, the EU leadership, important institutions and member States mainly focused on dealing with the debt crisis, cutting spending, controlling unemployment and promoting recovery, and other urgent economic issues, and the political integration issue was "marginalized".
Second, the redistribution of power between the "President of the European Union" defined in Lisbon Treaty and the President of the European Commission and the leaders of the rotating presidency, between the European Parliament and the European Commission and the Council, and between the EU and its subordinate institutions and the governments of member States is still in its infancy, and the relationship between them is far from being straightened out; The unclear responsibilities of leadership positions and institutions and unclear division of labor have affected the efficiency of the EU.
Third, in dealing with major issues such as debt crisis, financial reform, and solving ethnic conflicts, Germany, France, Britain and other EU powers insist on putting their own interests first, and their "transfer of sovereignty" is restricted, and even openly engage in "war of words" with senior EU officials, which has poisoned the atmosphere of EU political integration to some extent.
Fourth, the EU's efforts to "speak with one voice" to improve its international status have not achieved obvious results. In a series of international multilateral diplomatic occasions such as G-20 and G-8, the status and discourse power of European powers such as Britain, France and Germany are still higher than that of the EU. The US-Europe summit has been delayed again and again, the Russian-European summit is more empty than real, and the progress of hot diplomacy is rare. In the past year, EU integration diplomacy encountered various difficulties, but it was also remarkable. For example, the EU's "Ministry of Foreign Affairs" was recently established and officially put into operation. The "Ministry of Foreign Affairs" has, to a certain extent, integrated the diplomatic power and resources belonging to EU institutions and 27 member States, which is helpful to consolidate and expand the EU's major interests and international influence.
20 10 Another highlight of the EU's opening to the outside world is to improve its diplomatic strategy. EU leaders have seriously reflected on the current practice of being confined to tactics and neglecting strategy, and believe that the lack of diplomatic strategy has seriously restricted the influence of the EU on the international stage. The EU has clearly regarded the United States, China, Russian Federation, Indian, Brazilian, Japanese, Canadian, Mexican and South African as its "strategic partners". Ashton, the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, argues that Egypt, Israel, Indonesia, Pakistan, Ukraine and South Korea should also be listed as "strategic partners" in the future. In addition, the EU has also identified energy security, climate change, economic and trade cooperation, immigration and visas as "strategic areas".
In 20 10, the EU became more active in the regional and international arena. The EU has made great efforts to develop relations between major powers and held summits with China, the United States, Russia, Japan and India. Strengthen geo-strategy, consolidate and develop the "Eastern Partnership Plan", continue to expand to the southeast, steadily integrate into the "Western Balkans", and actively promote strategic cooperation with countries in the Middle East, North Africa and other regions; Emphasize cooperation with developing countries and regions, and hold summits or ministerial meetings with Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa and ASEAN respectively. The EU's performance on the Iranian nuclear issue is particularly prominent. Recently, Ashton held talks with Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Jalili on behalf of "5+ 1".
In some important documents recently published, the EU acknowledged that after the outbreak of the financial crisis and debt crisis, the world's largest regional group of countries entered an important "transition period". Transition means that unstable factors and even major risks may be highlighted anytime and anywhere; The transformation in the crisis has put the European Union, which has a history of more than half a century, on an unprecedented test. In the new year, the EU will face all kinds of new difficulties and problems, and it will further deepen reforms in the economic, internal, diplomatic and social fields, so as to get out of the economic recession as soon as possible, speed up the pace of political integration and play a more important role in the international arena. (The writer is the director of the European Branch of Xinhua News Agency. )
Middle East: The situation is ups and downs and the prospects are unpredictable.
Xinhuanet Cairo 65438+February 26th (Reporter Li Hongqi) In 20 10, the situation in the Middle East was ups and downs, and hot issues not only did not cool down, but added variables. The Palestinian-Israeli peace talks have been frustrated, Iraqi national reconciliation and post-war reconstruction are struggling, the Iranian nuclear issue has been dragged on for a long time, and the prospect of referendum in southern Sudan is bumpy. The international community's attention to the Middle East has not been relaxed for a moment.
US President Barack Obama showed kindness to the Islamic world in Istanbul and Cairo in April and June last year, claiming that he would do his utmost to promote the Middle East peace process and help the people of the Middle East realize their good wishes for peaceful development. After that, senior American officials frequently visited the Middle East, first promoting indirect talks between Palestine and Israel, and then starting direct talks in early September this year, with an interval of 20 months. However, after two rounds of difficult confrontation, there was no breakthrough in such thorny issues as border demarcation, refugee return and the status of Jerusalem, and the expansion of Jewish settlements became an insurmountable obstacle.
In order to break the deadlock, the United States also offered to provide Israel with 20 advanced fighter planes and blocked the proposal against Israel at the United Nations in exchange for Israel's extension of the 90-day settlement ban, which was rejected. A few days ago, the United States had to declare that its efforts to break the deadlock in settlements had failed. Although the United States claims that it will not give up the goal of promoting peace in the Middle East, the hope of a substantive breakthrough in peace in the Middle East has become even more slim.
The crux of the stagnation of the Middle East peace process is mainly that the United States continues to adopt an accommodating policy towards Israel's tough stance. The Israeli right-wing government is in power, and the pressure on the United States to promote peace is both soft and hard, while the United States is unwilling to put pressure on Israel for domestic political reasons and has repeatedly given in.
On the Israeli side, in order to maintain the right-wing government coalition, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, on the one hand, constantly expressed his hope to resume peace talks with the Palestinians, on the other hand, insisted on a tough stance on expanding settlements. The recent motion passed by the Knesset that territorial concessions should be held in a referendum has further dimmed the prospects for peace. However, the Palestinian National Authority is troubled by its open break with Hamas, and it is difficult to make more concessions on the settlement issue. It hoped that the United States would help break through the settlement barrier by putting pressure on Israel, but the result was cold water. Facing the deadlock, Pakistan indicated that there were many options, including unilaterally declaring the establishment of a Palestinian state and seeking international support, but the attitude of the United States was the key to success. Will the United States ignore Israel's demands and support Palestinian statehood? It is doubtful.
On the issue of Iraq, the security situation in Iraq has not been completely improved since the United States withdrew its combat troops from Iraq at the end of August. Bombing attacks occur frequently, the process of national reconciliation is frustrated one after another, and post-war reconstruction is difficult. After the Iraqi parliamentary elections in March this year, the stalemate in forming a cabinet lasted for eight months, and all political factions finally reached an agreement on June 1 1, and the new government was formally established on February 2 1. However, it will take time for the situation in Iraq to restore stability and economic recovery, and the interference and influence of external forces will make Iraq's prosperity prospects worrying. Some analysts pointed out that the United States had a heavy political and financial burden when it launched the Iraq war, which should prompt it to re-examine its Middle East policy.
20 10 the Iranian nuclear issue continues to be "high temperature", which makes the political prospects in the middle east full of variables. At the beginning of Obama's coming to power, he frequently extended an olive branch to Iran to induce Iran to abandon its uranium enrichment program with economic benefits, which was rejected by Iran full of doubts about the United States. In June this year, the United States took the lead in launching the fourth resolution on sanctions against Iran at the United Nations, but Iran still did not give in and insisted on its uranium enrichment plan.
In order to alleviate the international pressure, Iran first reached a nuclear fuel exchange agreement with Turkey and Brazil, but did not get a positive response from the United States and other western countries, and then agreed to resume negotiations with the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany. A few days ago, the negotiations between Iran and six countries in Geneva sent a positive message. The two sides agreed to continue the talks in Istanbul next year 1 month, but people are generally cautious about whether the talks can make a breakthrough.
While rumors that Israel plans to raid Iran's nuclear facilities are frequently reported in newspapers, more and more people realize that peaceful negotiations are the only effective way to solve the problem. The key to the success of the peace talks is to enhance mutual trust, discuss the concerns of both sides with good political will and superb political courage, and find a solution acceptable to both sides. Sudan is becoming a new focus. In April this year, Sudan held its first multi-party election in 24 years; In June 5438+next year 10, the southern referendum will be held soon. As the date of the referendum approaches, the game between political forces is becoming more and more fierce. The referendum will decide whether the poor and backward south is independent from the north, which will have a great impact on the political structure of Sudan and bring great changes to the regional political map.
Although North and South Sudan, which have suffered from years of civil war, want the referendum to be fair, just and transparent, the differences between the two sides on border demarcation, oil resource allocation and debt issues are still difficult to bridge. Sudan is the largest country in Africa, rich in oil resources, and its importance in the African continent and the Middle East is self-evident. In this critical period, the international community should respect the legitimate choice of the Sudanese people and help Sudan achieve political stability and economic development.
In addition to the above hot issues, the political trend of Egypt, a big country in the Middle East, has also attracted much attention. The ruling party won a great victory in the recent Egyptian parliamentary elections, but the possible opposition rebound will add new variables to next year's presidential election. In addition, the "parcel bomb" incident highlighted the seriousness of the anti-terrorism situation in Yemen.
At the same time, the improvement of relations between important countries in the region has released some positive signs for the political situation in the Middle East. As a member of NATO, Turkey has made contact with Arab countries and reached an agreement with Egypt to start strategic cooperation in July. Syria and neighboring Lebanon normalized their relations, and the two sides agreed to strengthen coordination on regional issues; Relations between Iran and Lebanon have improved significantly, and leaders of the two countries have exchanged visits and agreed to strengthen all-round cooperation; At the recent summit, the Gulf countries reiterated their support for the Middle East peace process and the peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue. These changes have brought new hope for the peaceful development of the Middle East.
Looking forward to 20 1 1, the hot issues in the Middle East may continue to be "hot" and the game between all parties will continue, but the efforts to achieve peaceful development in the Middle East will not stop. At present, all parties have shown good will to solve the difficult problems. However, to achieve the goal of peaceful development in the Middle East, all parties need to show political courage and wisdom. In particular, the United States should assess the situation and adopt a more fair, just and reasonable position. (The writer is the director of the Middle East General Branch of Xinhua News Agency)
Africa: The political situation is more stable and the economic recovery is steady.
Wang Chaowen, President of Xinhua News Agency Africa General Branch: In 20 10, most countries in sub-Saharan Africa became more stable and politically mature; The economic recovery is stable and generally improving; The pace of economic integration is firm, and the milestone progress has attracted worldwide attention. At the same time, the situation in individual countries is still very fragile, the security situation is more severe and complicated, and economic development has encountered bottlenecks.
20 10 has been designated as the "Year of Peace and Security in Africa" by the African Union (AU). The African Union, the Southern African Development Community (SADC), the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS) and other regional organizations have done a lot of mediation work in response to the plight of Zimbabwe's Coalition government, the protracted political crisis in Madagascar and the repeated postponement of presidential elections in Guinea and C? te d 'Ivoire. Although these problems have not been finally solved, the political situation in these countries has remained relatively stable.
This year, Africa's economy performed well and became a new bright spot in the world. According to the relevant report of the International Monetary Fund, the overall economic growth rate in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to reach 5% this year, and it is expected to successfully get out of the shadow of the international financial crisis. The organization believes that the good performance of the African economy benefited from the steady improvement of the economic foundations of various countries before the crisis, including relatively stable growth, low inflation, increased foreign exchange reserves and gradual reduction of debts.
The economic integration of African countries has also made significant progress this year. Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, members of the East African Community, officially launched the Common Market in July this year. This is another major historical event in the process of economic integration in Africa after the establishment of a free trade zone in southern Africa in 2008.
Latin America: A few happy families and a few sad families
Pan, President of Xinhua News Agency's Latin American General Branch: 20 10 In the coming year, the overall economic situation in Latin America is better than expected, and most Latin Americans are now relaxed because of the economic crisis in the previous two years. But also in this year, many natural and man-made disasters occurred in Latin America, and millions of families were affected.
Affected by the financial and economic crisis, Latin American countries experienced two years of economic recession. But in 20 10, the Latin American economy has undergone significant changes. According to the assessment of many international institutions, the economic growth rate in Latin America will reach more than 5.2% this year, and the number of poor people will also decline. Generally speaking, the economic situation of South American countries is outstanding. The economic growth of Mexico, Venezuela and Cuba is not satisfactory.
Politically, the election of Brazilian Labor Party candidate dilma rousseff as president is of great significance to Latin American political structure. Her victory stabilized the situation that left-wing and center-left parties occupied half of Latin America.
Latin America suffered more natural disasters this year than in previous years. 65438+ 10/2 An earthquake measuring 7.3 on the Richter scale struck Haiti, which almost razed the capital Port-au-Prince and killed more than 200,000 people. Millions of refugees still live in simple tents. On February 27th, a strong earthquake measuring 8.8 on the Richter scale struck central and southern Chile, killing more than 500 people and leaving thousands missing. Direct and indirect economic losses amounted to $30 billion.
America: People complain that superpowers are not what they used to be.
Zeng Hu, president of Xinhua News Agency's North America General Branch: 20 10 is a year in which the social, political and economic situation in the United States continues to undergo profound changes. This profound change took place in the social, political and economic fields, and then affected the diplomatic and military fields, which was manifested by the mid-term elections in the United States in early 10.
The result of the mid-term elections in the United States, in the words of President Obama, is the "fiasco" of the Democratic Party. However, this result is not accidental. Due to the difficult economic recovery after the financial tsunami, the Democratic Party, which has been in power for nearly two years, cannot escape its responsibility, and voters naturally have to vent their dissatisfaction through votes.
On the surface, the unemployment rate has been hovering at a high level of around 9.5% for a long time, which is the biggest headache for the American government and citizens. However, the US economy is facing more than high unemployment. There are many deep-seated fundamental problems in the American economy. One of them is the huge debt of the US government. As acute as the debt problem is the widening "wealth gap", that is, the polarization of social wealth income distribution.
Although the United States is still the number one power in the world, the challenges it faces, especially the difficult economic difficulties, make the influence of this superpower worse than before.
Asia and Europe: Overall Stability and Local Turbulence
Zhang Tiegang, Director of the Asia-Europe General Branch of Xinhua News Agency: In 20 10, the situation in Asia and Europe was generally stable and partly turbulent, characterized by "sunny" in the west and "rainy" in the east.
Throughout the year, Ukraine and Belarus are located between Russia and the West and are "pulled" or "beaten" by both sides to varying degrees. This year, the former reversed the "pro-Western" diplomatic line, while the latter changed the diplomatic policy of "leaning toward Russia". At present, the political situation of the two countries is basically stable, the economic growth momentum is good, and multi-directional foreign exchanges are very active.
Under the leadership of Mapo dual-track system, Russia's political situation and society are generally stable. Economically, despite the drought and forest fire this summer, it has maintained a stable development and is being restored with the goal of "modernization". In terms of internal affairs, despite a series of subway explosions in the capital Moscow this spring and many terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus, the security situation is generally stable. Diplomatically, although Russia is wary of the United States-led West, it still strives to promote the strategy of "economic diplomacy" and actively explores new ways of security cooperation. At the same time, Russia's influence in the "special interest zone" of the Commonwealth of Independent States has recovered.
The economic development of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan is still unbalanced, and the gap between the rich and the poor continues to widen. In particular, the bloody riots that led to the regime change in Kyrgyzstan have not completely stabilized the political situation. Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and other three countries in Transcaucasia seem to be calm, but in fact they are undercurrents. Mongolia, located between China and Russia, continues to struggle among big countries and its economy is developing steadily.
Looking forward to 20 1 1, developing national economy, maintaining social stability and carrying out multi-faceted pragmatic diplomacy will remain the main theme of Asian and European countries. Although there are still unstable factors or terrorist threats in some countries in Transcaucasia and Central Asia, and even Russia, the efforts of the Asian and European people for peace, stability and prosperity will surely play a human movement.