As of the end of the third quarter of this year, Wind data showed that the cumulative expected annualized expected return of QDII funds reached 5.99%, a record high in the past year. Coupled with the imminent opening of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the demand for overseas asset allocation by institutional funds is growing, and some star targets may usher in a turning point in layout.
QDII funds are in short supply
On October 21st, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fell below the 6.76 mark, a six-year low. Due to the limitation of QDII quota, QDII products of fund companies once became a "tight product" in the market. Some fund managers said that the quota of some special accounts is tilting towards public offering to meet the increasing demand for overseas allocation.
according to the public data of the state administration of foreign exchange, as of September 29th, the investment quota of qualified domestic institutional investor (QDII) totaled 89.993 billion USD. According to Wind data, there are 164 QDII funds in the public offering field. QDII is rich in investment products, including crude oil, gold, commodities and even the US real estate market. Many of them are in a closed period, and are limited to large investments, and some have suspended subscription, such as QDII for bonds, which is generally limited.
according to the expected annualized expected rate of return, Wind data shows that by the end of the third quarter, the average expected annualized expected rate of return of QDII funds was 5.99%. According to the portfolio calculation, among the 19 QDII funds that have been operating for a full quarter, 98 expect annualized expected returns to rise. It is learned that both emerging market stocks and European and American market stocks are favored by funds, and such QDII has increased by 9.39% and 7.38% respectively. Affected by a series of favorable factors such as Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect and the restoration of pessimistic expectations in the previous period, Hong Kong stocks ushered in Big bounce, and the corresponding QDII products performed well. The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng State-owned Enterprises Index rose by 12.4% and 9.97% respectively in the third quarter.
Su Tianshan, executive investment director of Qianhai Open Source, said that it is still difficult for mainland investors to allocate global assets because the coverage of QDII funds is still narrow, especially because of the lack of actively managed funds and limited quotas.
In addition, Su Tianshan also admitted that there is no need to panic about the allocation of overseas assets by mainland investors. The global economy is still in an uncertain recovery stage, and the trend of various markets is still dominated by shocks under this macro situation. After the world's major central banks implement long-term easing policies, short-term liquidity is expected to tighten to some extent, especially the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates. "Worldwide, there will be phased tightening in the case of loose overall liquidity. In such a macro environment, global asset allocation must be carefully analyzed. " Su Tianshan said.
Hong Kong stocks may become the first stop for "going out to sea"
On October 18th, Shenzhen Stock Exchange released its interpretation of the Measures for the Implementation of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect. Among them, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect does not have a total amount limit, but in order to prevent the risk of cross-border flow of funds, Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect has set a daily limit. Among them, the daily limit of Shenzhen Stock Connect is 13 billion yuan, and that of Hong Kong Stock Connect is 1.5 billion yuan. Some people believe that under the background of QDII quota shortage, Hong Kong stocks may become the first stop for funds to "go out to sea".
In this regard, Wang Haoyu, the proposed fund manager of Shanghai-Hong Kong Shenzhen Smart Life, said that when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was opened, the valuation of A shares was not significantly integrated with that of H shares. From June to September this year, the discount premium index of A shares to H shares declined rapidly, and the premium of A shares to H shares narrowed from nearly 5% to 2%. "With the support of policies, there is still room for improvement in the valuation of Hong Kong stocks in the future." He said.
Wang Haoyu said that in terms of relative value, Hong Kong stocks will outperform A shares in the future. First of all, he believes that the Hong Kong dollar has a high correlation with the US dollar, and buying Hong Kong dollar assets can hedge the pressure of RMB depreciation. Hong Kong adopts the linked exchange rate system, that is, the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar against the US dollar is limited to 7.75:1 to 7.85:1.
At the same time, he thinks that Hong Kong stocks are the first stop for accepting large funds. "Offshore funds favor Chinese assets, but the capacity of preferred shares, dim sum bonds and Chinese dollar bonds of Chinese banks is less than 3 billion US dollars, and the expected annualized expected income is limited. The capacity of Chinese stocks is about 5 billion US dollars, and the capacity of Hong Kong stocks is about 4 trillion US dollars, so Hong Kong stocks will become the first choice for overseas funds. "
in addition, compared with the major global stock markets, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is still very low. The P/E ratios of Hang Seng Index and H-share Index are 11.5 times and 8.4 times respectively, which are lower than the valuations in Europe, America and Asia.
In this regard, which industries to invest in Hong Kong stocks have attracted much attention. Wang Haoyu believes that we should focus on two poles: one is the old economy that is seriously underestimated, and the other is the new economy with reasonable valuation.
He said that the dual effects of continuous transformation and de-capacity of the industry will improve the overall efficiency and valuation level of the old economy. The downside risk of stock prices is limited, but there is huge upside, including coal, copper and steel. In the new economy, many Hong Kong stocks with scarce targets and potential stocks will also become the first choice for mainland funds to enter Hong Kong stocks, including non-essential consumer goods, TMT potential stocks and mid-cap stocks that are undervalued due to liquidity reasons. (Ren Fei)