It will probably be in arrears for another quarter.

China Securities News reported that relevant national departments are working hard to solve the problem of renewable energy subsidy arrears.

1. On March 24, the Ministry of Finance website released the 2022 government fund budget table. This year’s total government fund budget increased by 413.1 billion yuan compared with the previous year;

2. Everyone is most concerned about The renewable energy subsidy subject was not disclosed separately this year, but was merged with eight other subjects. The combined expenditure scale increased by 360.9 billion. Except for the renewable energy fund, the absolute value of the subject volume is very small. There is no doubt that the majority of the increase belongs to renewable energy;

3. We judge that the lack of clear disclosure of the scale of renewable energy subsidy expenditures may be related to the fact that the final inventory of the existing subsidy amount has not been completed, and the figures cannot be clarified;

4. Based on the above figures, we initially estimate that the size of the renewable energy fund this year is 890 (previous year’s size) + 3609 = 449.9 billion yuan; it is expected to solve the problem of over 300 billion yuan of under-replenishment of the stock.

There have been various signs that the subsidy arrears will be resolved. ① The 13th National People's Congress reviewed the substantial increase in central government fund budget expenditures; ② The report pointed out that the gap in renewable energy power generation subsidy funds should be solved; ③ Other expenditures in the Ministry of Finance's 2022 budget table increased by 360 billion compared with 2021.

It will take about a quarter for funds to be officially decentralized, and the funds may come from the central bank. At present, the competent authorities are conducting a systematic review of the energy subsidy arrears, and the company's self-examination will be completed by the end of March. It is expected that the competent authorities will complete the inspection of the above-mentioned enterprises within one quarter at the earliest, after which the state will issue a one-time payment of historical arrears of subsidies.

The subsidy gap will be solved at once, green power companies will receive a large amount of funds, and green power development will be provided with sufficient financial support. According to Guojun Dianxin’s calculations, the current subsidy gap is about 450 billion, which is expected to solve the previous historical problems at once.

It will greatly improve the cash flow situation of green power companies and obtain massive new development funds. According to the capital ratio of 2.5:7.5, it is expected to leverage 1.8 trillion green power investments. Assuming that the wind power and photovoltaic development funds are allocated at 1:1, it can leverage Start the 180GW wind power + 225GW photovoltaic project!