Greece is not bankrupt, but the Greek government's finances are bankrupt.
in other words, Greece's finances can't make ends meet.
Greek banks and governments are financially insolvent.
According to foreign media reports, the Greek government failed to pay its debts to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on time, and is now struggling to scrape together money to pay bills such as pensions. The major Greek banks closed this month have almost exhausted the emergency credit line provided by the European Central Bank.
Analysts say that Greece really has no money. Moreover, it seems unlikely that Greece will resume rescue negotiations with the IMF, the European Central Bank and other countries in the euro zone, at least before the referendum on the rescue proposal. With so much uncertainty hanging over Greece's financial prospects, there is no sign that the European Central Bank will inject more funds into the country.
Analysts say that if there is no lifeline, Athens may have to pay the pension and other domestic debts by writing IOUs, issuing temporary vouchers or substituting currency within one month.
"Greece is actually insolvent at present," said Mujtaba Rahman, chief analyst of the euro zone and Greece in new york's political risk consulting firm Eurasia Group. "They didn't pay back the money to the IMF, and they almost failed to issue domestic pensions, and there is no framework to show that Greece will get external financing soon."
The capital control imposed on banks is gradually cutting off the oxygen supply to the Greek economy. The country has taken some measures to save money, including that every account in the world can only withdraw 6 euros (about 4 yuan RMB) from the ATM every day.
Although there is almost no conclusive data to show how much room for manoeuvre banks have financially, according to some estimates, their unused central bank credit line is less than 2 billion euros. This money will only last Greece until the beginning of next week.
the European central bank decided on Sunday to cap the emergency credit line at 89 billion euros, and then the major banks in Greece may be closed until next Tuesday. A spokesman for the European Central Bank said that at a meeting on Wednesday, the central bank decided to keep the quota ceiling at this level.
However, according to Barclays' estimation, even if the European Central Bank lifts this ceiling, which is unlikely unless Greece reaches an agreement with its creditors, the collateral value that Greek banks can use to obtain more loans will be less than 3 billion euros.
if depositors continue to withdraw money, this amount may also be quickly exhausted. Moreover, since Greece failed to pay 1.5 billion euros of IMF debt on Tuesday, the European Central Bank is likely to increase its requirements for collateral. Such a decision will only further limit the ability of Greek banks to obtain emergency funds, and may lead to the bankruptcy of some banks.
All this means that if Greece wants to negotiate any new rescue plan with its creditors, it must now be based on a new economic growth forecast that is worse than before. Unless international creditors change their minds and forgive some of their staggering debts as Greece demands, any new bailout clause is likely to require Greece to adopt stricter austerity policies-more stringent than those that Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has been trying to avoid.
"As the Greek economy continues to weaken, they may have pushed themselves into the corner of further austerity," said Zsolt Darvas. He is a senior researcher at the Bruegel Institute for International Economics in Brussels.
"Now the Greek government realizes that if they want to stay in the euro zone, they need a new round of rescue plan, and its terms will depend on whether countries want to teach Greece a painful lesson and put forward more harsh conditions, or say,' Forget it, let's relax and try to save this country.'
The Greek government has not published overall data about its financial situation, so economists and Greek creditors can only try their best to estimate. In the first two times to pay off international debts, Greece used its reserves in the IMF and mobilized funds from other domestic government departments.
The Greek central bank itself is facing a huge gap: Tsipras's government not only failed to repay the IMF's debt on Tuesday, but also failed to repay the 472 million euros loan lent by its central bank to the government in 1994.
"This tells everyone how serious the situation is," said Jens Bastian, an economic adviser working in Athens and a former member of the European Commission's working group on Greece. "Even the debt owed to your own central bank can't be repaid."
There are different opinions about the reasons for Greece's bankruptcy.
But the Greeks are lazy, and many people eat relief and don't go to work.
The Greek government once asked disabled people to update their registration information in government agencies. As a result, 36, people were afraid to show up at all because they were not disabled ... This suddenly saved the government 1 million euros a year ...
The mayor of a small Greek city was killed by a machine gun, and the murderer was a local government worker. As a result, the murderer was still receiving his salary normally when he was in prison ... When the local newspaper reported it, the headline used was There seems to be something wrong with the supervision mechanism in Greece as a whole ...
According to the statistics of the Greek government, there are 8,5 elderly people over 1 years old in the country, which is very suspicious ... It turns out that many people did not declare their deaths in order to continue to defraud their pensions after the death of their elderly at home, and the number of such cases is estimated to be over 4, ...
There are still many people who lied about their income for tax evasion, resulting in a surprisingly high number of poor people in official statistics, so some economists put it on the table. Many nominally poor people actually live in luxury cars and have private swimming pools at home ... Many high-income people, such as lawyers and doctors, claim that their monthly income is only 1, euros ...
According to Greek regulations, families with private swimming pools are required to pay luxury tax, but only 3 families have declared it. Later, the government counted on Google Earth, and found that there were almost 2, private swimming pools in Athens ..... Then those families who didn't declare truthfully covered their swimming pools with camouflage tarpaulins when tax officials came to inspect them. This kind of camouflage tarpaulins is very popular in Greece ...
The subway system in Athens has no gates, and it is up to passengers to buy tickets consciously. As a result, millions of people hardly buy tickets consciously, and take the subway for free every day ... The subway department has no intention to take any measures ...
The laziness of Greeks is also famous in Europe, and diligent Germans are quite disdainful of them. In 212, a German deputy minister once told reporters that what 1, Germans do needs 3, Greeks to complete. At that time, this sentence also caused many Greeks to protest.