Connotation and basic characteristics of aviation disasters
Aviation disaster refers to the disastrous consequences caused by all accidents or events that endanger the normal aviation operation activities, operation order and social, political and economic life of civil aviation, including tangible and intangible losses caused by aviation accidents such as flight accidents, ground accidents and serious mistakes; Environmental disasters, such as aircraft noise and tail gas pollution, ecological environment pollution and damage caused by toxic and radioactive substances leakage, airborne diseases, etc.; Losses caused by natural disasters, such as thunderstorms, sandstorms, hail and other natural changes; Other disasters, such as the harm of illegal acts that threaten the operation safety of civil aviation. Aviation accidents and disasters are harmful and controllable, so they are the most important early warning management objects.
Aviation disasters have four basic characteristics:
1. suddenly produced
Aviation disasters are often unexpected disasters that the parties can't foresee. In 2000, the author conducted a sample questionnaire survey in Wuhan, Shijiazhuang and other capital cities, among which 42.63% residents thought that the most unsafe mode of transportation was flying, ranking first among all modes of transportation. In fact, the probability of an air crash is very small, but once an air crash occurs, the mortality rate is extremely high, and its suddenness and inevitability have a great impact on people's psychology. Because the occurrence of aviation disasters is the result of the interaction of many inducing factors, some of which are random and sudden, it will inevitably affect the occurrence of disasters with contingency, suddenness, uncertainty and randomness.
2. Comprehensive reasons
The civil aviation three-dimensional ground-to-air production service system is an artificial social technology system, which is mainly composed of three subsystems: airlines, air traffic services and airport services. It involves the planning, organization, coordination and command of flight, maintenance, ground support and air service. The work site is scattered, and it is difficult to organize and coordinate, which is greatly influenced by the natural environment and social environment. According to the accident investigation report, CAAC analyzed the related factors of 29 domestic flight accidents in recent five years. The first is improper operation of the crew (18.8%), and the second is the fault of maintenance and the defect of airline organization and management (12.9% respectively). The third place is that the crew violated flight procedures and regulations, and the crew members did not cooperate well (1 1.8% respectively), the fourth place was the weather (9.4%), and the fifth place was the crew's misjudgment, and the crew could not use the equipment correctly (5.9% respectively), in which the accumulated human factors were as high as 80% or more. It can be seen that aviation accidents are caused by many factors, among which human error is the most important factor, including the operator's adverse reaction to environmental changes, aircraft failure and so on. The occurrence of aviation disasters is usually the result of the interaction among the sudden change of external environment, human error and aircraft out of control in the process of civil aviation transportation, and the reasons are comprehensive.
3. Duality of consequences
The consequences of aviation disasters are, first, the damage caused by the disaster itself to people and society, and second, the social and psychological impact after the disaster. The duality of aviation disasters lies in: the damage scope is relatively small, but the social impact is great. A plane crash killed hundreds of people, but it had a worldwide impact, causing many people to feel uneasy and even afraid to fly. According to the author's sampling survey, 27.9% of the respondents felt sad or uneasy about the impact of the Wuhan June 22nd air crash, 23.2% said they didn't want to fly, 20.0% said they didn't want to take the "Yun Qi" plane, and only 29.438+0% said they or their families would not be affected. Although only 8.8% people expressed their reluctance to take the "Wuhang" plane, it reflected that aviation accidents had a negative impact on the image and reputation of aviation enterprises. Generally speaking, air crashes affect about 70% of people, which shows that the negative impact of aviation accidents on social psychology is quite extensive.
4. A certain degree of prevention
The occurrence of aviation disasters is inevitable in both micro and macro aspects. Theoretically, random events have random laws, and disasters happen for a reason, so controlling the reasons in advance can prevent the consequences of disasters. Through monitoring, identification, diagnosis and pre-control, and timely correcting human errors and mechanical failures, disasters can be prevented. But from a macro point of view, the system is in the process of continuous evolution, development and improvement, and disasters cannot be absolutely avoided. Therefore, aviation disasters can be prevented to a certain extent, and at least the occurrence and loss of disasters can be reduced to the minimum that can be controlled by the existing technology and management level. Taking the civil aviation airport as an example, the facts show that some aviation disasters are related to improper airport management. For example, due to the negligence of management, the metal objects on the runway of the airport were not found in time, which led to the tire damage when the Concorde supersonic passenger plane took off, leading to the crash and death of the plane; Due to poor security inspection, gangsters may board the plane with murder weapons, leading to many hijackings. This kind of disaster can be effectively prevented if civil aviation airports strengthen systematic safety early warning management on the basis of improving hardware equipment such as testing.
Purpose and function of aviation disaster early warning management system
The research of aviation disaster early warning management system is an applied research of industry management under the guidance of early warning management theory. Comprehensive application of the latest achievements of complex system theory, safety science, humanities, disaster science and other disciplines, the management system and means of monitoring, identifying, diagnosing and pre-controlling the controllable causes of aviation disasters are aimed at preventing and correcting the initiation and development of aviation accidents and incident-inducing factors, preventing and reducing the tangible or intangible hazards caused by aviation disasters, and ensuring the orderly and safe state of civil aviation operation systems. Specifically, the purpose of aviation disaster early warning management system is to solve the inherent limitations or the possibility of mistakes of aviation actors; Causes and processes of abnormal changes in aviation environment and aircraft failures, as well as the relationship with human error; Probability of aircraft accidents and disasters under different factors and conditions: under what circumstances may management errors occur in civil aviation safety management; How to identify and diagnose aviation accident symptoms or disaster signs; How to predict and control its development trend; How to use effective pre-control means and other issues.
Practice has proved that it is difficult to prevent aviation disasters by taking a single measure. Only by comprehensive prevention and pre-control from laws, regulations, management, technology, education and other aspects can we achieve good results. The establishment of aviation disaster early warning management system is to build a "self-organizing" mechanism in airlines, airports and air traffic control institutions, which can be immune to homogeneous aviation accidents and prevent and correct various aviation disasters.
Necessity of establishing aviation disaster early warning management system
According to the latest statistics of the International Aviation Safety Network, during the two years from 2000 to 200 1, there were 349 aviation safety accidents in the world, only 96 in China. There are 227 air crashes around the world. The 200 1 US "9. 1 1" incident not only caused the tragedy of plane crash and death, but also caused thousands of people to disappear instantly with the collapse of the World Trade Center in New York, which seriously damaged the American civil aviation industry and even the national economy, had a great impact on global aviation safety, and even caused doubts about the existing aviation safety system. Since 1955, China International Airlines has set a rare record for the world's civil aviation transport enterprises to fly safely for 40 consecutive years, and was awarded the Medal of Honor by ICAO. However, this year's "4. 15" air crash near Busan Airport in South Korea has adversely affected the economy and reputation of this "national safety flight model unit"; The "5 7" air crash of China Northern Airlines in Dalian not only caused heavy losses, but also triggered a serious incident in which passengers collectively went on strike to take the same type of passenger plane as the crashed plane.
If the "9. 1 1" terrorist incident has uncontrollable factors that are difficult to prevent from the management level of the industry or enterprises, then most aviation disasters are not impossible to be forewarned and prevented. Strengthening the prevention of aviation disasters is not only a problem of airlines, airports or air traffic control institutions, but also a problem of a country's civil aviation industry, which has attracted worldwide attention. The International Air Transport Association put forward a plan to reduce the accident rate to half of 1995 by 2004. The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) also put forward the goal of reducing the existing accident rate by 50% by 2006.
With the rapid development of China's economy, in the process of deepening reform and continuous progress of China's civil aviation, the hidden dangers of disasters can not be ignored. According to the forecast report of Boeing Company 200 1, by 2020, the number of passenger planes in China will exceed 2,209, and the fleet size is almost four times that of now, and more than half of the existing fleet is still in service. Passenger flow in the domestic market will increase at a rate of 9.3%, and the frequency of domestic flights will increase rapidly; International market traffic and international flight frequency will also increase significantly. Assuming that the accident rate remains unchanged, the disaster loss will be magnified several times. At the same time, in the process of deepening the civil aviation system reform and airline restructuring in China, there are inevitably problems such as imperfect laws and regulations and imperfect supervision mechanism, which may lead to the failure to implement safety responsibilities at the grassroots level and leave loopholes in safety management. For example, some local airlines in China have a weak safety foundation and their safety work is as busy as a bee. There are still many practical problems to be solved in terms of safety management concept, mechanism, mode and system, prevention and control technology and emergency rescue system. Therefore, it is urgent and necessary to establish an aviation disaster early warning management system to effectively reduce the accident rate and disaster rate and reduce the loss of aviation disasters.
Feasibility of establishing aviation disaster early warning management system
1. Theoretical preparation for establishing aviation disaster early warning system
In the field of civil aviation, the aviation industry in the United States and Europe took the lead in strengthening the research of air environment early warning system, and developed traffic early warning and collision avoidance system, near-ground early warning system and wind shear early warning system; France has strengthened the research on aviation accident investigation and prevention countermeasures. For example, Air France established an Air France flight safety organization to carry out accident prevention by applying Allison's causal model theory. Airlines in various countries, represented by Boeing, have further strengthened the research on man-machine systems based on human factors engineering. The above research mainly focuses on aviation technology, aviation regulations and standards formulation.
China has made rich achievements in aviation safety technology, aviation safety management, aviation safety regulations, aviation safety psychology, human error and accident investigation. In the past two years, the research group of the National Natural Science Foundation project "Research on Traffic Disaster Early Warning System" has made phased achievements in the research of traffic disaster early warning management in aviation, highway, water transport and railway. In the aspect of aviation disaster early warning management, the model and organization mode of aviation disaster early warning management system are put forward, including the construction idea, work content, operation mode and workflow of the system. Based on the investigation and analysis of the management mode and measures of civil aviation flight quality monitoring in China, this paper puts forward a new idea of aviation disaster early warning management by using civil aviation flight quality monitoring, and probes into the method of predicting the trend of out-of-gauge events, so as to provide countermeasures for aviation disaster early warning management. This paper discusses the relationship between social psychological quality, motivation, emotion and behavior mistakes of civil aviation crew. The psychological background of unit behavior mistakes is analyzed. This paper analyzes the influence of poor unit management on group behavior mistakes, and puts forward some countermeasures to improve unit management. These studies, together with * * *, laid a theoretical foundation for the establishment of aviation disaster early warning management system.
2. Realistic conditions for establishing aviation disaster early warning system
In 1980s, the international civil aviation community strengthened the research on customer relationship management and adopted a series of effective measures. At the same time, countries all over the world have strengthened reliability management. Since 1990s, many countries in the world have introduced many important encouragement measures to improve aviation safety standards and adopted a series of important measures to establish a global safety standard system. For example, in 1998, 35 participating countries of the European Civil Aviation Federation have established a database of aircraft and airlines that violate safety practices or airworthiness rules; During the period of 1999, international air transport established operational quality standards for its member airlines. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) stipulated in 1989 that commercial aircraft should be equipped with wind shear early warning system (RWS). Since 1970s, major airlines in Europe and Asia have started to develop and apply flight quality monitoring software to detect unqualified events and development trends in aircraft operation, aircraft maintenance and engine performance monitoring. The software jointly developed by Quetta Australia and Flight Data Analysis Company was put into commercial use for the first time. Some airports have set up apron safety committees specifically for apron accidents to formulate and implement relevant safety measures; Strengthen hardware equipment.
So far, China has made great progress in civil aviation safety management, accumulated rich practical experience, and made some achievements in strengthening accident prevention by using early warning ideas. China Southern established "China Southern Reliability Control Closed-loop System" on 1995, established data reliability standards and strengthened reliability analysis. From 65438 to 0995, China Civil Aviation developed flight handling quality monitoring software for B737 and B757. 1997, the civil aviation administration requires all transport aircraft to be equipped with QAR equipment and monitor each flight, which provides an effective scientific means to ensure flight safety and speed up the training of new pilots, and is conducive to safety management in advance. Some airlines begin to pay attention to the management of human factors, such as cockpit resource management (CRM), safety analysis and evaluation, and take targeted safety measures by understanding the weak links in the air transport system.
The establishment of aviation disaster early warning management system is based on the existing aviation safety technology and aviation safety management system. For example, the monitoring of aviation environment can cooperate with the meteorological forecast service of aviation meteorological department and airport security inspection; The monitoring, evaluation and pre-control of aircraft operation state can be combined with the statistical evaluation system in reliability management, and used in conjunction with the airborne environmental early warning system of advanced civil aviation aircraft (including traffic warning and collision avoidance system, near-ground warning system and wind shear detection system) and the secondary monitoring radar system of air traffic control department; Monitoring, evaluating and optimizing the behavior of aircraft controllers is the deepening and perfection of cockpit resource management. The monitoring, assessment, early warning and pre-control of safety management activities are supplements, revisions and enhancements to the safety assessment of airlines, airports and air traffic control. In a word, the establishment of aviation disaster early warning management system is an imperative systematic project with practical feasibility. Safety is the lifeline of civil aviation and the eternal theme of unremitting pursuit. The establishment of aviation disaster early warning management system is the concrete embodiment of the idea of "prevention first" in aviation safety and the deepening and development of the policy of "safety first", which has a positive effect on continuously improving the scientificity, reliability and disaster prevention and mitigation level of aviation safety management in China, promoting the deepening of the current civil aviation system reform of "enterprise responsibility, industry management, state supervision and mass supervision" and promoting the construction of aviation safety system and the healthy development of civil aviation industry.