Since 2022, Shan Bin's position adjustment operation has caused many controversies, including his failure to bargain for short positions and chase up US stocks when A shares rebounded sharply at the end of April.
It is worth noting that the net value of a product managed by Dan Bin has recently fallen off a cliff, which is suspected to be "seriously injured" by Tesla.
But Bin's Reflection 2022: Comparative Failure
But Bin said that at the beginning of the year, it was predicted that the investment in 2022 would not be very good, so risk control was done, and some of them could be made into structural products and made into blue-chip snowballs with certain safety pads. At present, it will expire in more than a month, but unfortunately, except for the world's largest smartphone company and the largest software company, everything that was not typed in a few months ago has now been typed in. Although it was not optimistic at first, it did not expect to fall by more than 30%.
Since 2022, Dan Bin's position adjustment operation has caused controversy many times. Many products of Oriental Harbor avoided the sharp withdrawal from February to April because of "short positions", but they also missed the rebound at the end of April. Since June, the net value of many of its products has fluctuated greatly, and some products even fell below the warning line. According to the data of the third-party platform, as of February 23rd, 12, since 2022, more than 30 privately-owned products owned by Shan Bin have lost more than 40%, and more than 40 have lost more than 30%.
In this regard, Shan Bin bluntly said that the domestic part was not copied in April, and it should not be chased again in June, leading to a retracement. However, Bin said, "After two years of adversity, we have learned a lot from introspection, but we must work hard and be strong!" "
Suspected to be "seriously injured" by Tesla
Since the sharp withdrawal of its products in June, the net value of most products managed by Shan Bin has remained stable since June 10. However, one of its products, "Oriental Harbor Start-Stop 1", has recently experienced a cliff-like decline in net worth.
According to the data, the latest unit net value of "No.65438 +0" in Dongfang Harbor as of 65438+February 23rd was 0.95 10 yuan, and the loss rate in 2022 was as high as 54.34%. The analysis of its net value trend shows that the performance of this product is not consistent with the A-share market. In the first eight months of 2022, the net value trend was relatively stable. Since September, the product has shown a "straight dive" trend, with a decrease of 26.96% in 1 month and a decrease of 43.59% in March.
Interestingly, some insiders found that the recent net value curve trend of "Oriental Harbor Start Stop 1No." was similar to Tesla's recent performance in the US stock market, and it was suspected that Tesla was "seriously injured".
Since September, Tesla's share price has also experienced a cliff-like decline, falling by more than 36% from 65438+February and by more than 53% from 65438+1October. In the downward trend, Tesla's share price rebounded from the end of 1 1 to the end of 1, and the "Oriental Harbor Start-Stop1No."also had a similar trend.
/kloc-0 At the beginning of 0/0, Shan Bin released several Weibo in succession, praising Tesla's new humanoid robot. But Bin spoke highly of Tesla, saying that Tesla, like Tencent in 2008, has broad industry prospects, but it may be subject to "macro" in the short term. Suspected to be eyeing the new target after Maotai.
In this regard, although Shan Bin did not directly confirm it, he said in the summary that "US stocks partially invested in' companies that changed the world', resulting in a sharp drop in the net value of 10 since June, which is the first time since the liquor crisis in 20 13 and 20 14." Suspected side reaction was seriously injured by Tesla.
The reappearance of "Liquor Crisis"?
After years of rapid development, 20 13 liquor industry has gradually exposed problems such as overcapacity and changes in competition pattern due to rapid expansion of production capacity and superimposed plasticizer incidents. The industry boom suddenly turned around, and the share price of the head liquor company also suffered.
Shan Bin, who is known as Maotai's "iron powder", has always made a lot of remarks about singing Maotai, which has also impressed many investors. According to previous reports, as a famous value investor in China, Shan Bin bought Kweichow Moutai at the price of 23 yuan per share in 2003, and has held it for nearly 20 years.
When the liquor plasticizer incident spread to Kweichow Moutai, Shan Bin repeatedly issued a document to support Maotai. He thinks that the incident of passive plasticizer will only make the future of China liquor industry more solid, because he thinks that plasticizer has no interest appeal to liquor industry. It is reported that in 2008 and 20 13, when Maotai plummeted, Oriental Harbor never sold Maotai, but continued to buy and hold it firmly. The long-term heavy warehouse of Maotai has also brought rich benefits to Dan Bin.
Will this "liquor crisis" reappear?
Some institutions pointed out that there are three main reasons for Tesla's sharp decline, such as concerns about Shanghai factory production, intensified competition in electric vehicles, and economic recession, which may lead to a decline in demand in 2023. In addition, after Tesla launched several rounds of price cuts around the world this year, Wall Street has lowered its expectations for Tesla's fourth-quarter results, and its expectations for next year have also declined.
However, it seems that Dan Bin himself still firmly believes that "companies that change the world by 2030 can truly change the industry and form a new level of industrial growth!" From overseas, ARK Ark Fund, a subsidiary of Mujie, a heavy-duty Tesla, has also bottomed out many times in the decline. "Historically, the crisis has created opportunities." Mu Jie said. However, before hundreds of billions of private placements by Lin Jing and Gao Yi, Tesla was also in the US stock market, but both private placements significantly reduced or cleared Tesla in the third quarter.