On1October 20th, 2002, 10, almost all large financial institutions in the world received such an alarm. The exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has officially fallen below the 150 mark, and you have to spend 150 yen to exchange one dollar. Set a 32-year low. Since the beginning of this year, the overall depreciation of the yen against the US dollar has reached 23%. Looking around the world, no major currency has risen and fallen so sharply.
The collapse of the yen led to an increase in prices.
Why is the yen under fierce attack?
On the one hand, because the United States keeps raising interest rates, the dollar has returned and appreciated wildly, and the currencies of other countries have depreciated relatively. On the other hand, because Japan has always adhered to a loose monetary policy, refused to raise interest rates with the United States and wanted to revive the economy, the yen collapsed the most.
The deeper problem is that Japan is really too small, and energy is mainly imported. 92% of its energy is imported from overseas, even higher than that in Europe. Since the beginning of this year, the soaring prices of oil and natural gas have directly led to a sharp increase in the production costs of Japanese companies. In order to relieve the pressure, we can only raise the price.
The yen fell below the 150 mark against the US dollar. Why didn't Japan rescue the market?
Because the devaluation is intentional by Japan, it can actually be seen in many ways. First of all, since the beginning of the year, the United States has been adopting a tight monetary policy in response to high inflation. As the younger brother of the United States, Japan did not follow the footsteps of the older brother, but took quantitative easing and continued to release water. The result must be currency devaluation and inflation.
Secondly, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said many times this year that raising interest rates would not continue to stimulate monetary policy, and when it fell below the 150 mark, the Japanese government only verbally intervened and did not severely crack down on speculators who shorted the yen. All these show that the Japanese government has chosen the default devaluation, and I believe it has also weighed the pros and cons.
I definitely think the advantages of devaluation outweigh the disadvantages. This can be seen from the Japanese stock market. Although the currency has depreciated sharply, the stock market is really strong this year, which shows that this policy has been recognized by the market.
Japan's aging is serious, young people want nothing, and there is obvious deflation, which is terrible for economic development. Now by constantly releasing water, devaluing the currency and raising the inflation level, we can not only increase exports and promote tourism, but also promote domestic consumption. So in general, there is a reason why Japan didn't rescue the market.
What is the impact of the depreciation of the yen on China?
Simply put, the same amount of RMB can buy more Japanese products, which is good news for overseas students and enterprises importing from Japan, but the export industry may be affected, because it is equivalent to the depreciation of the yen we recovered out of thin air. The influence of exchange rate changes is always a double-edged sword, so a stable exchange rate is the premise of stable economic development.