(1) The interactive relationship between silver price and US dollar. Because the international silver price is denominated in US dollars, the interaction between silver price and the trend of US dollars is very close. Generally speaking, there is a reverse interaction between the rise of US dollars and the fall of silver, and the fall of US dollars and the rise of silver. Under the normal conditions of fundamentals, funds and supply and demand, the reverse interaction between silver and the US dollar is still an important basis for investors to judge the trend of silver.
(2) the interactive relationship between silver price and oil price. The price of crude oil has always been closely related to the silver market. The reason is that silver has the function of resisting inflation, and the international crude oil price is closely related to the inflation level. Therefore, there is a positive interaction between silver price and international crude oil price.
(3) the linkage between the price of silver and the international commodity market. Due to the sustained economic rise of China, India, Russia and Brazil, the demand for non-ferrous metals and other commodities continues to be strong, coupled with the speculation of international hedge funds, the prices of international commodities such as non-ferrous metals and precious metals continue to rise strongly, which is the embodiment of the price linkage of commodity markets. When judging the price trend of silver, investors must pay close attention to the international commodity market, especially the price trend of non-ferrous metals.
(4) the interactive relationship between silver price and stock market. The development history of the international silver market shows that under normal circumstances, silver and the stock market also run in the opposite direction. When the stock market rises sharply, the price of silver often falls, and vice versa. However, because China's mainland stock market is relatively closed, the rise and fall of silver price is not closely related to the mainland stock market, but has a strong correlation with some important overseas stock markets (such as new york, Tokyo and London).
(5) the relationship between silver price and seasonal supply and demand factors in the market. The relationship between supply and demand is the basis of the market, and the silver price is closely related to the supply and demand of the international silver spot market. The silver spot market often has a strong seasonal supply and demand law. In the first half of the year, the spot consumption of silver was relatively off-season, and in recent years, the silver price generally bottomed out around the second quarter. From the third quarter, driven by festivals and other factors, the demand for silver consumption will gradually increase. By the Spring Festival every year, influenced by the consumption of Asian countries, the demand for spot silver will gradually reach a peak, thus making the price of silver higher.
(6) the relationship between the price of silver and the position level of international funds. With the end of the prosperous economic cycle in the United States, the global monetary and credit crisis has prompted many institutional investors to find suitable investment varieties to hedge the risk of exchange rate instability. In this context, the commodity market represented by crude oil and precious metals has attracted the attention of many institutional funds, and international hedge funds have intervened in the silver market and other commodity markets. Relevant data show that global hedge funds once hoarded as much as $5 billion in new york silver market. It can be said that the sharp rise of silver price in recent years is not only the product of profound changes in investment background, but also the result of international hedge funds' hype. When judging the trend of silver price, investors must pay close attention to the dynamic changes of international fund positions.