Many fund managers said that the short-term adjustment of the market is the result of multiple factors. Looking forward to the market outlook, there is not much room for market downside, and you can buy on dips during the shock. Under the tide of economic upgrading and transformation in China, we can still pay due attention to high-quality stock opportunities in high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors.
Many factors caused the A-share market to plummet.
For today's A-share crash, Huaxia Fund said that today's market crash, the expected game is the fuse. The essence is that the short-term style has the pressure to level off. The recent mid-year report revealed that the short-term expectation of capital game was fulfilled, which brought outflow pressure; Secondly, in the past month, the degree of market valuation differentiation has expanded, and the prosperity strategy has continued to create excess returns. But at the same time, the hype of photovoltaic energy storage has also sent out some bad performance indicators, and the * * * vibration of the two has brought about emotional cooling. In the early micro-strategy, we judged that "the trend of A shares will move from rebound to shock stage". The main reason is that the current economy is in a weak recovery stage, the real estate is in a slow clearing process, and consumers' income, expectations and behaviors also need a long time to repair, so it is difficult to see exponential opportunities.
According to Time Fund, there is a large correction in the GEM today, mainly due to the following reasons: First, the latest real estate data and PMI data released by the United States are not performing well, and the data of the euro zone and the United Kingdom are superimposed, which further aggravates the market's concerns about the global economic recession and reduces risk appetite; 2. At present, it is the window period disclosed in the last week of the interim report, and the market sentiment is relatively fragile. Early growth stocks have accumulated a certain increase, and there is pressure for callback.
Wells Fargo Fund said that after "recycling cash" changed to "loose support", the market became more sensitive to bad news and its volatility gradually increased. With the slowdown of macroeconomic recovery in July, the core driving force of A shares switched from profitability to liquidity, and the structural market of small-cap growth supported by liquidity has certain "fragility", especially it is more susceptible to market sentiment, and the fluctuation range is rapidly enlarged.
CEIBS believes that in the context of abundant market transactions, the continuous shocks since August reflect the slowdown of domestic economic recovery and the high uncertainty of subsequent economic trends. At the same time, due to the randomness of epidemic spread, it is difficult to comprehensively evaluate its economic impact. This not only leads to high uncertainty in the implementation of economic policies, the resumption of production of enterprises and the consumption of consumers, but also makes it difficult for the market to produce new consensus expectations on the economic prospects. At the same time, inflation also restricts the prospect of global economic recovery. Energy prices in Europe have soared, and inflation in Britain has reached double digits. The theme discussed by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole seminar also emphasizes the policy restrictions of the real economy and the labor market on inflation. In addition, the extreme weather phenomena that broke out in the world recently have produced certain unstable factors on the international financial market.
Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund mentioned that Huawei plans to shrink its marginal business. In the third quarter, the sales guidelines of new car-making power declined and pessimistic expectations spread. On the afternoon of August 22nd, Ren published an article in Huawei's internal forum, saying that Huawei should change from pursuing scale to pursuing profit and cash flow to ensure that it can survive the crisis in the next three years. As a benchmark enterprise in the field of science and technology in China, Huawei's business spans communication equipment, consumer electronics, cloud computing, smart cars, digital energy and other fields. Once the relevant content was reprinted by the media, it caused widespread concern; In addition, Xpeng Motors' guidance on the third quarter sales in its second quarter results conference was also significantly lower than market expectations, which also had a certain impact on the performance expectations of the new energy automobile industry chain. Benchmark enterprises' judgment on the trend of their industries may affect investors' growth expectations of related industrial chains, and the spread of pessimism also makes most industries adjust.
It is expected that the interest rate of funds will rise at a low level and the style differentiation will begin to converge. Last week, the central bank lowered the MLF interest rate, but the interest rate of funds rebounded from a low level, indicating that the most relaxed stage of macro liquidity expectations may have passed. Although weak economic expectations have curbed long-term interest rates, term spreads have gradually narrowed. At the same time, the market value and crowding degree of small-cap growth transactions have been greatly differentiated. Under the background that the fundamental expectations of the interim report have been fulfilled one after another and the margin of liquidity easing expectations has weakened, the style has begun to return to equilibrium, which has also led to more gains in the previous boom track.
CITIC Prudential Fund said that today's market decline is a normal fluctuation in the shock pattern. Based on the judgment that the domestic economic recovery is weak and the liquidity is abundant in the second half of the year, it tends to think that the systematic repair of the market is still not over. As domestic and international economic growth is facing the pressure of expected downward adjustment, the structure is more conducive to the relationship between growth assets and weak economy. In addition, the direct cause of today's market crash is that Ren said yesterday that "the global economy is in a long-term recession, and survival should be the main program", which aroused market concern. The core reason may be the recent lack of incremental funds in the market, which leads to an increase in market fragility.
Hu, a researcher in the financial and real estate industry of Chuanghexin, said that there is a "chill" in A shares today, and macroeconomic uncertainty has a certain impact on market sentiment. In terms of lithium batteries, the decline in the gross profit margin of individual targets in the second quarter has aroused the concern of some market participants, and today's high opening and low going has further led to the plunge of the GEM index. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization lowered its sales growth forecast for the chip market this year and next. Major oil-producing countries may cut production, which makes the risk of rising international oil prices appear. These two negative factors caused the external market to plummet overnight, and the A-share market was obviously under pressure.
The market is in a dilemma at present. On the one hand, the market is pessimistic about the macro-economy and cautious about the crowded transactions of hot plates; On the other hand, the policy is looser than expected, the market liquidity is sufficient, and the market is growing under the structural trend. Small and medium-sized sectors can continue to mobilize the enthusiasm of capital participation. In the crowded and speculative environment, the market is prone to large emotional fluctuations, which leads to large fluctuations in the index.