However, since China's economy is dominated by the big domestic cycle, what is the relationship between the single real estate market and the overall domestic market? Will house prices go up or down? How to achieve long-term stable development for developers?
Do you want real estate?
"Accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other". On July 30th, with the deployment of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, this will become an important direction of China's economic work in the second half of the year and even in a longer period.
"China has a super-large domestic market advantage," Wang Jingwen, a senior researcher at Pangu think tank, told China Newsweek. Under the background of rising trade protectionism and shrinking global market, we can make full use of the super-large domestic market and form the momentum of internal circulation and double circulation promoting each other.
Wang Jingwen said that from the perspective of the domestic big market, the real estate industry is an industrial chain with extremely extensive related effects and huge volume.
First of all, there is a large demand for housing in China, forming a huge real estate market. 14 In August, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from June to July, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 8363 1 10,000 square meters, and the sales of commercial housing was 80142.2 billion yuan.
This huge volume has spawned many market players. On August 10, Fortune magazine published the latest list of Fortune 500 companies. There are five real estate enterprises in China, among which Country Garden ranks first in the world from 177 to 147, with a revenue of $70.335 billion in 20 19.
"As far as the real estate market is concerned, from the perspective of internal circulation, the real estate industry is connected with investment and people's livelihood, realizing the cycle of investment function and people's livelihood demand." Miao Meng, deputy general manager of the Urban Development Department of Yiju Ke Rui, told China Newsweek that China's GDP in the second quarter was 250 1 1 billion yuan, up 3.2% year-on-year, and finally turned from negative to positive, which was inseparable from the contribution of investment. In terms of investment, the investment in real estate development in the first half of the year increased by 1.9% year-on-year, taking the lead in realizing the change from decline to increase, which became one of the few bright spots in economic growth.
Second, the real estate industry has an obvious pulling effect on the upstream and downstream industries. Wang Jingwen said that the development of the real estate industry can drive the consumption of household appliances, furniture and building materials.
Third, urbanization is the historical task of modernization, the greatest potential of expanding domestic demand, and an extremely important means to form a large domestic market, and the real estate industry provides an important living space and commercial consumption space for this largest domestic demand.
Judging from the main products of the real estate industry, taking Country Garden as an example, these leading housing enterprises provide hundreds of thousands of residential products every year, and their millions of square meters of shopping malls also create more convenient conditions for people to spend and shop.
Miao Meng said that the real estate industry has greatly promoted the urbanization of the population, and urbanization is also the biggest driving force for the development of the real estate industry. Of course, urbanization is dynamic, and the real estate development model of blindly pursuing high housing prices in the past is unsustainable.
The relationship between supply and demand in the real estate market has changed
Under the pattern of internal circulation and domestic and international double circulation development, the logic of China real estate may change.
Wang Jingwen said that to form a complete closed loop, internal circulation needs the support of final consumption, and the overall domestic market needs a certain rebalancing.
The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on July 30th emphasized that houses should be used for living, not for speculation, so as to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. At present, Shenzhen, Dongguan, Nanjing and other places have increased the property market purchase restriction policy, focusing on cracking down on investment speculation and real estate speculation.
Miao Meng said that the house is not speculation, because the city policy is still the main tone of the property market. In the future, the transaction volume and price of the property market will be stable, and the ups and downs of housing prices will be curbed.
"Under such a policy tone, the demand level of the property market will change greatly." Zhao Xiuchi, vice president and secretary general of Beijing Real Estate Law Society and professor of capital university of economics and business, told China Newsweek that the speculative demand for investment will be greatly suppressed, the property market will be dominated by the release of rigid demand, and some new changes will also enter the property market, and the real estate industry will truly return to the property of safeguarding people's livelihood.
What impact will this have on the property market? How will market demand be released?
"The real estate industry should basically meet people's housing needs and serve people's pursuit of a better life." Yang Guoqiang, the founder and chairman of the Board of Directors of Country Garden, said that he is optimistic about the real estate market in the third, fourth and fifth tier cities, because with the increase in wages of migrant workers, they have the demand for housing improvement. These people will not buy houses in big cities with high housing prices, nor will they live in rural areas lacking medical care and school facilities. Therefore, they are most likely to have schools, medical care and other infrastructure, and the house price is tens of thousands.
"In the current era, for real estate developers, the era of simply pursuing quantity has passed, and what is needed now is high-quality development." Zhao Xiuchi said that high-quality products are the life of an enterprise, and only products with hard quality and meeting market demand can occupy a place in the market and realize the promotion of project value.
Housing enterprises are also changing. It is understood that in 2020, Country Garden will set the development theme as the year of comprehensive competitiveness improvement in the whole cycle and the key year of high-quality development. "The basic product strength is the key point, which is related to the position and reputation of real estate enterprises in the market." Mo Bin, president of Country Garden, said that since the epidemic this year, the demand for healthy residential products has been prominent, and Country Garden quickly began to comprehensively enhance its product strength, supporting healthy home products and health services from the perspective of industrial chain, and providing healthier living.
Zhao Xiuchi said that the remolding of urban value and regional value is a great opportunity for the future property market, and cities with large population inflow and high-quality projects still have development potential.
Housing enterprises need to step up the construction of moat
From the perspective of policy deployment, the pattern of internal circulation will be a protracted war, and new urbanization will continue to release its role and drive investment and consumer demand.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the urbanization rate of permanent residents in China reached 60.6% in 20 19, which is still far from the level of 80% in developed countries. Every time the urbanization rate increases by one percentage point, nearly140,000 people will flow from rural areas to cities and towns, which will not only increase the investment in urban public service facilities, but also release huge consumer demands such as food, clothing, housing and transportation. In this regard, Miao Meng said that there is still a lot of room for development in new urbanization.
In the face of the dividend period, housing enterprises are actively laying out the market outlook. Take Country Garden as an example. As of February 2009, 3 1, 2065438+2065438 has obtained about1702.2 billion yuan of saleable equity resources in China, with a potential saleable equity value of about 7 159 billion yuan and a total saleable equity resource of about 2.4 trillion yuan, distributed in12009.
Wang Jingwen said, however, we should also see that the growth rate of urbanization has been slowing down in the past four years, and it only increased by 1.02 percentage points in 438+09 in 2065, which is the slowest growth year since 1996. It can be seen that the speed of urbanization is slowing down, which will form a test for real estate enterprises.
On the whole, with the change of market space, the competition is more intense, initially showing the situation of the strong and the strong.
According to the monitoring data of Central Hospital, in the first half of 2020, there were 3 enterprises with sales exceeding10 billion, with an average sales growth rate of 2.2%; There are 50-654.38+06 enterprises with sales of * * 654.38+00 billion, and the average sales growth rate of these enterprises is 654.38+0%; In addition, enterprises with sales of 65.438+0 billion to 20 billion and enterprises with sales of 5 billion to 65.438+0 billion decreased by 7.6% and 654.38+065.438+0.6% respectively. This shows that compared with other housing enterprises, the bigger the head enterprise, the better the overall sales performance.
Despite this, large housing enterprises are still stepping up the construction of moats in various ways. From the perspective of Country Garden, through cash flow management, debt reduction and opening up low-cost financing channels, the net loan ratio in 20 19 is only 46.3%, which is far lower than the average net debt ratio of 94. 1% of 50 typical real estate enterprises, and the ability to resist risks is greatly improved. Specifically, at the end of 20 19, the short-term interest-bearing debt that Country Garden plans to repay within one year is 1 163 billion yuan. Based on its available cash balance of 268.35 billion yuan, the cash balance covers 2.3 times the short-term interest-bearing debt, and there is no pressure to repay the debt.
Under the internal circulation of China's economy, development relies more on scientific and technological innovation, and transformation and upgrading are the main waves. For this reason, in recent years, large-scale housing enterprises have also entered the fields of building cars and robots, opening up new business growth points.
Since 20 18, Country Garden has been exploring in the field of "construction robots+prefabricated buildings" and has made great progress in construction robots and catering robots. As far as catering robots are concerned, as of June 2020, Country Garden has submitted more than 500 patent applications, covering hot pot, Chinese food, fast food, clay pot rice and other formats.
Zhongyiyuan pointed out that Country Garden continued to grow stronger around the main real estate industry, actively laid out high-tech industrial maps such as robots and modern agriculture, and realized diversified layout and coordinated development of the main industry, which is conducive to long-term development and is worth learning from the industry.
While its performance continues to improve, Country Garden continues to devote itself to social welfare activities, with a total donation of more than 6.7 billion yuan, involving precision poverty alleviation, vocational education, teaching and scientific research and many other aspects. During the epidemic this year, Country Garden Group and Guoqiang Public Welfare Foundation successively donated 200 million yuan to set up an epidemic prevention fund to fully support the frontline epidemic prevention work.
Wang Jingwen said that in the context of an inward-looking economy, development is paying more and more attention to people-oriented, and housing enterprises actively participate in charitable activities, which is conducive to enhancing their overall value.