Data map Xin Jingwei photo
Raise interest rates by 75 basis points.
For a 75 basis point rate hike, the Federal Reserve said that it is necessary to continue to raise interest rates until the interest rate reaches a "sufficiently restrictive" level. The agency said that inflation remains high, employment growth is strong and unemployment rate remains low, and the cumulative impact and lag of monetary tightening will be considered. The Fed also indicated that it is prepared to adjust its policies at an appropriate time and will continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities as planned.
After the announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the three major US stock indexes rose rapidly, with the Dow gaining more than 1% in intraday trading. The yield of US 10-year treasury bonds rose briefly and then fell, falling by 5 basis points in the day, and is now reported at 3.997%. The yield of 2-year treasury bonds fell for a short time 15 basis points, and is now reported at 4.466%. The US dollar index DXY fell 80 points in the short term and is now reported as110.68; Spot gold rose 14 USD in the short term, and now it is quoted at 1.660.43 USD/oz.
In addition, non-US currencies generally rose, and the euro rose 70 points against the US dollar in the short term to 0.9943; The pound rose nearly 100 points against the US dollar in the short term to1.1541; USD/JPY fell more than 65,438+000 points to 65,438+046.27. Offshore RMB rose by 0.4 1% to 1 USD at 7.2789 RMB.
It is found that in addition to this rate hike, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates five times during the year, on March 17, respectively, by 25 basis points. On May 5, the interest rate was raised by 50 basis points; June 16, raising interest rates by 75 basis points; On July 28, the interest rate was raised by 75 basis points; On September 22, Beijing time, the interest rate was raised by 75 basis points, with a cumulative interest rate increase of 300 basis points.
In terms of inflation data, the US CPI increased by 8.2% year-on-year in September, slightly higher than market expectations, with the previous value of 8.3%. The year-on-year increase of core CPI was also higher than expected by 6.6%, the largest increase since August 1982, with the previous value of 6.3%. Among them, the cost of living, which accounts for about one-third of CPI, has increased by 0.7% month-on-month for two consecutive months, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%.
In addition, according to data from the US Department of Commerce, the growth rate of US consumer spending slowed down from 2.0% in the previous quarter to 1.4%, a two-year low; However, the annual GDP of the United States in the third quarter recorded 2.6%, higher than the expected 2.4%.
In terms of employment data, according to the data of the US Department of Labor, the number of job vacancies in the United States in September reached 6.5438+0.072 million, while the median expectation of economists surveyed by the media was only about 9.8 million. After the data was released, investors began to continue to worry that it would be difficult for the Fed to slow down the rate hike.
Will the next round of interest rate hikes slow down?
After this meeting on interest rates, the Fed only has the last meeting on interest rates in June 5438+February 65438+April this year.
Will the Federal Reserve continue to raise interest rates in 65438+February? If we continue to raise interest rates, will it slow down?
"The Fed should maintain the current momentum of raising interest rates." Former us treasury secretary summers said that if the fed does not curb inflation, the us economy will face greater risks. If the Fed stops acting, inflation expectations may increase; St. Louis Fed President Brad also said that he hopes to raise the policy interest rate to a level that can exert meaningful downward pressure on inflation.
In addition, analysts of Credit Suisse and Nomura Securities both said that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates by 75 basis points; However, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley believe that the Fed's interest rate hike in June will slow down to 50 basis points in February. Michael Garpen, chief American economist of Bank of America, also predicted that the Fed would raise interest rates to 4.75% to 5% before the end of spring.
However, some economists still worry that if the Fed extends its aggressive austerity plan, it may trigger a more serious economic recession and instability in financial markets.
CICC macro said that in the core CPI of the United States in September, in addition to the continued increase in rents, the prices of other services are also accelerating, which shows that inflationary pressure is universal and persistent, which will also support the Fed to continue raising interest rates.
Ping An Securities said that it may be difficult for the Fed to express that it will definitely slow down the pace of raising interest rates, and it is more likely to maintain a certain degree of ambiguity and leave room for policy adjustment; Zhongtai Securities believes that the economic downturn in the United States is inevitable, and the superimposed inflation is gradually falling. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will slow down the rate hike.
CITIC Securities also mentioned that it is necessary to pay close attention to the important follow-up data and the position of the Fed when the interest rate hike slows down. In June, 5438+February this year, the Fed's interest rate hike may slow down. Considering the downward pressure on the US economy, the Fed may stop raising interest rates in the first quarter of next year, and the end point of raising interest rates may be around 5%.
What's the impact?
What impact will the Fed raise interest rates again this round have on the RMB exchange rate and the stock market?
"Since the beginning of this year, thanks to the long-term positive fundamentals of China's economy and the monetary policy of normalization in recent years, the RMB has been relatively stable against a basket of currencies." Yi Gang, governor of the Bank of China, said on the 2nd that the RMB exchange rate will remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and the value and purchasing power of the RMB will remain stable.
"In the fourth quarter, the Fed's interest rate hike and contraction will come to an end." Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that there is a high probability that the Fed will stop raising interest rates next year, which will lay the foundation for China to implement a looser monetary policy and help stabilize the RMB exchange rate.
Yang Delong also said that recently, the US dollar index began to turn down, non-US currencies rebounded, and the RMB exchange rate also rebounded to a certain extent, which was conducive to boosting market confidence.
Zhang Xia, chief analyst of China Merchants Securities Strategy Research, believes that the Fed began to show dove signals, the yield of US bonds and the US dollar index began to fall, the external environment improved, and the bottom signal of A shares became more and more obvious.
Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, said that since the Fed's interest rate hike is difficult to stop in the short term, it is expected that by the beginning of next year, the monetary policies of China and the United States will deviate or continue, the dollar may further rise, the spread may remain narrow, the exchange rate flexibility will be enlarged, and the probability of depreciation is high. From the second quarter to the second half of next year, the exchange rate will stabilize or rise slightly. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)