"Adding positions on dips" is one of the most common operations in investment. The principle is that after the relevant investment targets fall to a certain extent, buying at a lower price can reduce the investment cost and turn losses into profits faster. Today, Bian Xiao will share with you how to judge the low position for your reference only!

The so-called "low point" is never an accurate point or price. Just as we said, "bottom" is never a specific location, but an interval, in which the extent and possibility of decline will be limited. Here we provide two ways to find the "low" bit:

How to judge that the fund is at a low level?

1, look at the index valuation

The first way is to pay attention to index valuation.

This is the most basic reference index. First of all, we can judge the valuation of the whole market according to the valuation of the mainstream broad-based index. For example, we usually look at the valuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 or Shanghai Composite Index to understand the overall situation of the market. In addition, for some industry sectors or themes and concepts, the valuation of related indexes is also very valuable. When the percentile of valuation is above 80%, it is relatively overvalued, and when the percentile is below 20%, it is an underestimation interval. Take CSI Liquor as an example. At present, the PE percentage of CSI liquor is still at 95%, which is a high level, so the liquor index is not a "low level".

The method of judging positions according to valuation is more suitable for index funds and funds in some cyclical industries (note that the valuation of cyclical industries is based on PB percentile rather than PE percentile).

For actively managed funds, you can make a rough valuation judgment by referring to the valuation of the performance benchmark related index. However, since active funds can be selected by fund managers, the valuation of the reference index is sometimes biased, so the second method can be considered.

2. Look at the return of funds.

The second method is to refer to the historical retracement of the fund.

Retreat is the fluctuation of the fund's net value between the highest point and the lowest point in a period of time, generally speaking, the maximum withdrawal rate in 3-5 years.

This method is suitable for excellent active funds with long-term performance for reference, complete bull and bear market experience and stable fund managers. Many excellent fund managers can still hit a new high after a period of retreat in the bear market. Therefore, we can compare the recent withdrawal degree of the fund with the largest withdrawal experienced by the fund manager. For example, China-Europe Medical Health in Julun experienced the largest round of divestment in history on 20 18, up to 39%, and it has also experienced 26% divestment this year, which is a relatively large round of divestment in the history of the fund. This time can be said to be a relatively low level, and you can buy it appropriately.

Need to be reminded that the reference premise of retracement must be that the fund should be excellent enough, because we dare to buy and hold at a low level, and the support behind it must be the excellent management ability of the fund manager. For fund managers with stable investment style, it is valuable to take withdrawal as a reference to buy funds, but there is no standard for the specific withdrawal ratio, and the risk control ability of different fund managers is quite different. In addition, in terms of retracement reference, we should also pay attention to our own retracement tolerance. If your endurance is relatively low, it is not suitable to buy back a large fund.

In addition, adding positions on dips does not mean adding positions as long as they fall, otherwise it is easy to add funds to heavy positions and affect their asset allocation. The funds used for jiacang must also be planned in advance, without affecting the original fixed investment or long-term investment plan.

How to add positions?

Jiacang is relative to the fixed investment of our fund; For example, according to the normal fixed investment, on the first day of each month, we invest 100 yuan in the same fund. In the process, you pay extra 50 yuan or 100 yuan or other amount to buy this fund. This action is called jiacang.

In fact, jiacang is our personal judgment on the market outside the fixed investment, that is to say, do you think the market has fallen very low or the market is rising? You think the market will go up next. If you think the opportunities outweigh the risks at this time, then you can add.

Since it is a personal judgment on the market, it is necessary to have a certain understanding of the market. But you should know that personal judgment can't accurately predict whether it will go up or down next. If you bought it wrong according to your own judgment, there may be risks at this time. Therefore, we need to know some strategies for adding positions, rather than adding positions just after falling.

1, there are risks in adding positions, so be prepared psychologically.

The jiacang may be added halfway up the mountain. Investors should be fully prepared. Don't panic if the market falls further after jiacang. After all, if it is a relatively low jiacang, the overall position cost will be reduced, and it will be easier to achieve profitability when the market rebounds.

No one can clearly predict where the bottom of the market is, and no one can predict when the market will bottom out. We can only judge the relatively low level according to historical data and fundamental conditions. Therefore, adding positions must be entered in batches. As long as the average cost of adding positions is low, it is effective.

2. Strictly abide by your own operation strategy.

Please make a strategy for yourself! For example, if it goes up, it will lighten up, if it goes down, it will stop, or stay above a certain moving average, and if it falls below a certain moving average, it will leave decisively.

Don't be afraid to make mistakes. If you make mistakes, correct them. This is much better than echoing others. Investment is always your own business, and other people's opinions are for reference only. The strategy you explored is the one that suits you best.

Operation, always give yourself a framework, frame human nature, or tight or loose, or radical or steady, there must be! There must be! Otherwise, it will be difficult for you to grow up!

3, jiacang skills

In fact, fund jiacang also has the skill of jiacang, instead of blindly jiacang, which will only make you lose more.

(1) pyramid type

MLM investment law is divided into positive MLM law and reverse MLM law.

Positive pyramid buying method: positive pyramid, when investing, you should buy in large quantities at low prices. When the price rises, the number of purchases will gradually decrease, thus reducing the investment risk.

Inverted pyramid sales method: contrary to the regular pyramid, with the price rising, the quantity of sales gradually increases to earn more price difference income.

(2) Sharing method

Divide the positions into equal parts, establish multiple positions when opening positions, and add positions one by one. Each position must have its own logic, such as stepping back on the moving average, such as heavy volume.

Different from the pyramid method, it is more free to share shares equally. If there is a mistake in opening or adding positions, the volatile market can be compensated by gradually buying, and it is not necessary to stop loss.

(3) Do not add positions repeatedly in the same position.

A shares are volatile most of the time. In just one week, their mentality may have experienced a bull and a bear. After being blinded by emotions, you will have wrong ideas.

For example: today's plunge, you increased your position. It rose the day after tomorrow, and then fell slightly in three days. At this time, many people will want to go to low suction again, but in fact, the so-called low suction only repeats the second position near the same position, which is of little significance or even harmful, and will increase their burden for no reason, resulting in the position being too heavy to turn around in the future.

Many people have a strange habit of adding positions every time they fall, not looking at the position of the previous position, not blindly adding positions, and grasping the rhythm. Every position should play its role, and it is of little significance to hit the target again.

(4) there has never been Man Cang.

The vacant position in your hand represents initiative. The lighter the position you buy, the less you worry, and of course you earn less money, so everyone should find their own balance point.

Man Cang's short position will cause him to lose the opportunity to deal with the market in his investment. He will either lie down and play dead or dare not cut the meat.

The position brings you not only initiative, but also security.

In short, the fund's falling position is only a way to make a profit. Before adding positions, think more about the reasons and logic behind adding positions and judge whether your fund is of high quality. It's easy for a fund to make money, but the key is whether you are willing to grow up with "time". Whether to establish a correct "cognition" before buying.

If you don't make money right away, you must be patient. What kind of patience is enough? You are willing to endure not making money for three years and be prepared not to make money for four or even five years. It is much more realistic to buy a good fund, hold it patiently, insist on fixed investment, and wait for time to get rich gradually than to plan how to buy a fund of 1000 for a dime all day.

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