1. I bought a treasury bond yesterday. If the interest rate rises today, the interest will only be calculated at the interest rate specified when I purchased it yesterday.
Therefore, many investors choose to purchase book-entry treasury bonds and participate in transactions in the exchange treasury bond market. This not only makes redemptions more convenient, but may also allow them to obtain certain profits from buying and selling in the bond market.
2. Raising interest rates will cause the original bond market varieties to decline.
He said that from the perspective of the impact of interest rate hikes on national bonds, because national bonds themselves are an interest rate product, after the country raises the benchmark interest rate, the income from bank deposits has increased, and bank deposits are convenient and flexible in terms of liquidity, so it is not ruled out that some funds will flow back to banks.
system.
As a result, the government bond market is facing pressure from the return of funds.
3. After the national benchmark interest rate is raised, the financing costs of banks and other institutions have increased, which objectively requires higher yields on government bonds.
However, interest rates in the existing treasury bond market are relatively low, and they are facing greater selling pressure.
Therefore, the impact of raising interest rates on the government bond market is that it will directly cause the price of the government bond market to fall and the yield to rise.
This should be inevitable in the short term.
Extended information: The main reasons for raising interest rates: 1. The risk of economic downturn has weakened compared with the previous period. Concern about current inflationary pressure is an important reason why the central bank chose to raise interest rates at this time.
2. Since 2010, the debate on whether to raise interest rates has actually been ongoing. Especially in recent months, prices have continued to rise and have repeatedly exceeded the 3% warning line.
my country has entered the negative interest rate channel since February.
As price levels continue to rise in recent months, negative interest rates have gradually deepened, showing an intensifying trend.
3. Although negative interest rates largely reflect the necessity and urgency of raising interest rates, concerns about the risk of economic downturn have become an important reason to hinder the introduction of interest rate increases.
Fearing that investment and export, the two growth engines, would be hit hard, the market was once filled with pessimism about China's future economic situation. Therefore, the introduction of interest rate hikes became cautious!
4. However, judging from recent data, the market has obviously exaggerated the risk of China's economic downturn to a certain extent in the early stage. The current economic downturn is still due to base factors. Other than that, it has not shown a serious deterioration.
There are signs that the risk of a "hard landing" has basically been eliminated.