Will it be successful in the future to complete the appreciation of wealth capital with real estate?
"As the leading industry of social economy, the real estate industry has a huge scale of operation. Nowadays, under the strong control of real estate funds, it is difficult for financial institutions to handle asset custody and compliance management of asset management products, so many real estate funds have to withdraw. Cai Ruxiong, CEO of Lijing Kyushu Equity Fund, told Rongzhong Finance. Under the harm of China's regulatory policies such as "housing and not speculating", urban development, stabilizing real estate investment and strengthening the city, the difficulty coefficient of raising real estate funds continues to increase; In addition, the technical professional operation ability of real estate fund goods and the reputation of well-known brands of managers have also clearly put forward higher regulations, and goods that cannot be served can only withdraw from the sales market and be eliminated. ?
According to the data of China Foundation, by the end of 2020, the total operating scale of investment management business processes of China's equity investment fund enterprises, branches, securities companies and private investment fund regulators will be about 56. 17 trillion, of which private investment funds 15.82 trillion and real estate funds10.86 trillion only account for the total operating scale of China's investment management.
The potential development trend of China real estate fund, the indoor space is very large. Then, when the local real estate economy develops to the stock market, how can real estate funds find a large number of investment opportunities?
With the influx of 1 fancy gamers, the head effect of real estate funds is more significant.
Since the financial turmoil of 130 in the last century, there have been 100 incidents related to the real estate industry. At present, in China, real estate loans account for 39% of commercial bank loans, and there are many net inflows of bonds, individual stocks and private equity funds in the real estate industry. Can the real estate industry be said to have greater financial risks in China at present? Grey rhinoceros? . The following is a brand-new speech by Guo Shuqing, the current chairman of China Banking Regulatory Commission.
Immediately after the "345" New Deal, it favored the credit line and interest-bearing liabilities of equity financing of real estate development enterprises, and restricted the equity financing of development and design real estate enterprises from the provider. Withdrawing funds has gradually become one of the focuses of daily work of real estate developers. In order to make the property bigger and stronger quickly, the interests of the new project of the company's equity transfer have become real estate developers? Lose weight? One of the key choices. In contrast, before, China Jinmao, China Merchants Shekou (12.050, -0. 19,-1.55%) and Zhongnan Construction (7. 120, -0.05,-0.70).
By June 2020165438+1October, R&F Property sold 70% of the property of Guangzhou Airport Guangzhou R&F Integrated Logistics Park to Tieshi Group's stock fund at a price of 4.4 billion yuan, and personal net assets were used to reduce its debts. In addition, Guangzhou R&F also sold its shares in an office building in Guangzhou CBD for nearly 2 billion yuan. In addition, in order to better reduce the debt ratio, Evergrande Group invested 2.35 million Hong Kong dollars in the war, and Sunshine City (6.290, -0.03, -0.47%) introduced Taikang Group to invest more than 3.3 billion yuan in the war.
With a series of changes in environmental analysis and the adjustment of real estate enterprises themselves, real estate funds are gradually returning to their origins and integrating into the transformation, from regulatory arbitrage project investment to stock investment.
After the "three red lines", land resources, finance bureau, etc. All have disappeared, and the real estate industry has entered a stable and healthy new cycle. Objectively speaking, real estate developers still have a lot of asset requirements. Therefore, more and more companies with financial location advantages such as equity financing ability are gradually chosen to enter the real estate fund industry and expand their business processes. ? Cai Ruxiong told Rongzhong Finance.
As far as today's sales market is concerned, the main players of real estate funds include domestic enterprises and foreign-funded enterprises. The development trend of equity funds in foreign-funded enterprises is relatively long, and the key is to have new projects. The stock funds of domestic enterprises are mainly divided into real estate developers, financial enterprise management systems, PE and other institutions, but these institutions are usually limited by the term of equity financing, and most of them are new projects that are developed and designed by opportunities.
Jia Xiangyu, the asset custody partner of Langzi Asiana, told reporters. Accompanied by? Broken just? With the development trend, the profits of traditional private equity funds and bank wealth management products have also declined, and the high cost performance of real estate funds based on systematic operation and management has become increasingly prominent; In addition, the period of high profits and high improvement in the real estate industry has gradually ended, and the intention of real estate developers to open up to the outside world has continued to increase, such as cooperation with other real estate developers or real estate funds. Affected by various factors, more and more stock funds enter the sales market.
In addition, Jia Xiangyu also pays attention to? In recent years, the head effect of real estate funds has become more and more obvious due to the shortage of domain control prediction and the increasing attention paid by real estate developers to real estate funds.
It is worth mentioning that in recent years, many international investors have gradually flooded into the China market to bargain for stocks. For example, in June 2020, 5438+ 10, Tieshi recovered the fourth new project of Sunac China Shanghai Xiangyi Garden Phase III at a price of10.20 billion RMB, and then recovered the new project of Guangzhou Airport Guangzhou R&F Integrated Logistics Park under R&F Real Estate Group at a price of 4.4 billion RMB.
At the beginning of this year, KKR also announced that it had raised $6,543.8+0.7 billion in Asian real estate funds. This kind of equity fund focuses on the real estate industry in Asia and is a pan-Asian real estate fund founded by KKR. What's more, KKR recently announced that it has raised $3.9 billion equity fund for infrastructure construction in Asia, which can be used for infrastructure construction in Asia. Visible, China's real estate economic development is a pioneer of a new road, which has been quietly carried out in the real estate fund.
2. Do a good job in the stock market war.
Jia Xiangyu told reporters that at this stage, the current various policy controls have caused both positive and negative harm to the investment of real estate fund projects.
From the adverse impact, the most direct is that some existing policies guiding prices or financial industry will reduce the profits of new projects, slow down the speed of capital withdrawal, and further endanger the internal rate of return; Investment funds; Secondly, at the level of raising funds, some LP forecasts are becoming more and more cautious, which in turn has a negative impact on raising funds. In addition, with the development of management and control, there will be great differentiation in various places and their cities, especially in hot spots such as the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, which will attract more attention.
On the other hand, all the control themes are actually? Did it go well? . In other words, the sales market is unwilling to have big ups and downs. This eliminates the huge variability of project investment in this case. Although the increased indoor space is limited, the reduced risk is relatively controllable, which is good news for the project investment.
In fact, with the development trend of urbanization, many second-tier cities have already entered the era of stock, and the cost of land auction in the sales market is too high, so it is not easy to have new land resources. It is popular to save intensive land and reduce drug development and design. Therefore, it has become a new development trend of real estate fund project investment in accordance with urban development, the introduction of industrial chain and the renovation of total amount.
As far as the sales market is concerned, most real estate funds are also expanding the project investment industry, continuing to invest in industrial real estate projects, and looking for investment opportunities such as urban development and old city reconstruction.
For Jia Xiangyu, there may be two opportunities in the future stock market: first, due to the pressure of the owners' own cash flow, the prices of such properties are slightly lower, and the sales intention is strong, and some of them have realized non-performing or quasi-non-performing loans; Second, China's core assets are very attractive to foreign-funded enterprises, such as total assets.
"If the real estate fund can't continuously produce effective properties, all new projects will be in the foreseeable future, which will inevitably lead to a decrease in the use value of new projects to meet the effective profit requirements of the sales market. Cai Ruxiong of Lijing Kyushu Stock Fund believes that "for the management of long-term owned operating assets, only by improving the operational management level of operating assets and further enhancing operating assets can it be regarded as a fundamental development prospect. 」
In addition, for the leading housing enterprises with stable debts, the future market share will have higher indoor space and competitiveness, and the difficulty coefficient of cross-border marketing of small and medium-sized housing enterprises will become larger and larger. In the industry, eat small fish's Big Fish 3? This situation will often occur.
As far as real estate funds are concerned, in addition to the scale of asset management, M&A of recycling enterprises also pays attention to strict financial due diligence and technical professional value judgment of new project properties, and negotiates with them to formulate effective risk prevention and control trading schemes.
Langzi Asiana Asset Management Plan also emphasizes that a large number of M&A recycling enterprises will temper the ability of equity funds to integrate resources in the future. "Assets are naturally the key, but various risks in the whole recycling process, such as sorting out, identifying and solving, and after recycling, including renovation and repositioning, will have higher technical professional regulations on property integration and working ability.
Third, the real estate investment trust fund will be an effective way to withdraw from the total property.
In fact, real estate funds must consider the exit mode when making decisions on selected new projects. If they can't withdraw immediately, what countermeasures should be taken to ensure the assets can be recovered safely.
In recent years, the continuous sales of REITs have actually gained a lot of practical activities and achieved excellent practical results.
Compared with the perfect and sound current policies of REITs abroad, the current policies of REITs in China actually developed relatively late. As we all know, since REITs were launched on 20 14, the annual sales operation scale has been continuously improved. By the end of 20 19, there were 68 REITs sold in China, with a total investment of 14028 1 billion RMB.
As far as the basic property types are concerned, the sale cycle of REITs related to freight logistics, storefronts, rented houses and office buildings is longer, with an average of more than 15 years; The sales cycle of REITs in commercial blocks, industrial areas and infrastructure construction is shorter, with an average of more than ten years.
According to the working experience of mature sales markets in Europe and America and the characteristics of REITs, REITs will become an effective way to withdraw total assets. Jia Xiangyu indicated? This promotes the liquidity of the total real estate and the threshold of project investment, which is much higher than the sales market with single block trading rules at this stage? .
It should be emphasized that REITs, which are the key development in China at this stage, still exist, although they are related to those in capitalist countries such as Britain in terms of equity financing, interest and system management. Tax collection and tax refund? There are still great differences between the two levels, so it is called? Like real estate investment trusts? Commodities.
For example, the key choice of China REITs? Private equity fund+special plan? The organizational structure shows the characteristics of debt, and the operation mode is also passive; In the perfect sales market, REITs mostly choose joint-stock cooperative system or trust, which has the characteristics of stock type, long product term and more emphasis on long-term sales performance in operation mode.
Cai Ruxiong also stressed that after the implementation of the current REITS policy, it is estimated that the real estate fund in China will also transform from a single real estate developer? Real estate agent+business manager+fund client? The way, there will be many opportunities for practice. ? This emphasis is reflected in new business project types such as business service office, freight logistics, industrial base and cultural tourism real estate. This ability of transformation and development is the competitive advantage of stock funds in innovation and strategy in the future.
In fact, this change has long been relatively perfect in the sales markets of European and American countries. However, in China, the typicality of these two years means: shell listing, Mingyuan cloud selling, agent construction enterprises, commercial management enterprises, and real estate companies that were very popular last year.
To some extent, Jia Xiangyu said that this is a certain development trend. He pointed out that the normal profits in all fields are concentrated, and the future profitable indoor space depends on refined management and the improvement of operational efficiency (including the establishment of information management systems, etc.). ) and improve human resource management. In the past, real estate developers relied on themselves for land acquisition, development and design, and marketing operations. Every stage in the future may have a more detailed and technical organization, and excellent people will do what they are best at. 」
What about now? Three red lines? The real estate industry has a new temper, and the natural environment in the field is becoming more and more changeable. And under the control, the real estate industry has been seized by equity financing? Throat? Financing methods such as loan banks and collective trusts were damaged, and this harm was transferred to real estate funds according to assets. So in the near future, where should the real estate fund go?