2. Precious metal sector: The US interest rate hike is a risky battle. If we don't pay attention to it, it will cause a large outflow of capital from emerging economies. For the United States, it will also worry that the rising cost of financing will lead to the economy.
3. Crude oil sector: Theoretically, the US dollar rose, while other commodities denominated in US dollars fell, including crude oil. However, the dollar and crude oil are by no means simple
1, high-debt sector: interest rate hikes correspond to the appreciation of the US dollar, further aggravating the foreign debt burden. China's civil aviation industry has bought many planes from the United States and Europe, and its foreign debt burden is very large; Real estate is regarded as a reservoir of funds, and its stable income makes it very easy to hoard a lot of liquidity. The appreciation of the dollar triggered the withdrawal of foreign capital, which led to a gap in the real estate capital chain;
2. Imported plates: The price advantage of imported enterprises is obviously weakened. Enterprises preparing to acquire foreign assets will also increase their cost input, which may cause abortion of capital operation.
In addition, the shadow of interest rate hikes on the entire A-share market should not be underestimated. Supported by sub-new shares and cyclical stocks, the market rebounded in the first quarter. However, the differentiation within the plate is still serious, and there is a lack of varieties that lead or continue to relay for a long time. In this state, the US interest rate hike again is obviously a blow to the fragile and sensitive capital environment of A shares, which may lead to the adjustment of A shares in the second and third quarters.
Next, let's look at the positive plate:
1. Export-oriented industries: the United States raises interest rates. No matter how the US stocks interpret it, at least the trend of the US dollar is relatively certain: the US dollar appreciates and the RMB depreciates. As we know, although devaluation alone can only stimulate a country's exports to a limited extent (China began to cut interest rates from 14, but exports did not improve much). However, A shares still have emotional catharsis in the short term. In China's export trade structure, overseas businesses such as electronics, household appliances, machinery and equipment, computers, textiles and clothing account for a relatively high proportion;
2. Precious metal sector: The US interest rate hike is a risky battle. If we don't pay attention to it, it will cause a large outflow of capital from emerging economies. For the United States, it will also worry that the rising cost of financing will lead to another economic downturn. Therefore, in this uncertain mood, the defensiveness of precious metals such as gold is prominent;
3. Crude oil sector: Theoretically, the US dollar rose, while other commodities denominated in US dollars fell, including crude oil. However, there is not a simple inverse relationship between the dollar and crude oil! The key indicator to decide whether the Fed will raise interest rates is CPI. If the CPI goes down, there is not much room for the Fed to raise interest rates. Oil price is the basic cost of all commodities, which determines the trend of CPI. It can be said that the rebound space of oil prices determines the interest rate increase space of the United States in a certain sense.