Mainly to attack the Russian economy and punish Russia for its tough stance on the Ukraine issue!

According to a report by China Business News, international oil prices have plummeted. U.S. gasoline is US$0.73/L, while water is US$1/L. Oil is cheaper than water. America’s happy moment seems to have arrived.

Since this summer, international crude oil prices have plunged 30% to the lowest level in four years. As of 21:00 on the evening of the 17th, Beijing time, the price of Brent crude oil futures in London was hovering around US$78.4 per barrel, continuing to fall from the previous day. Analysts are still shouting: There is no lowest, only lower. Some experts even predict that this round of decline will reach $50/barrel.

On November 13, local time, the price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at US$74.21 per barrel, falling below the US$75 per barrel mark, the lowest since September 2010. . London Brent crude futures for December delivery settled at $77.92 a barrel, also falling to their lowest in four years.

The “continuous fall” in international oil prices has been transmitted to the United States, with U.S. refined oil products falling below $3 per gallon (about 3.8 liters) for the first time since 2010.

Economists analyze that this round of U.S. economic growth has almost reached its peak. The slowdown in overseas demand has dragged down exports and may turn the economy downward; but the sudden large price cut in gasoline has It may be a big plus to stimulate domestic consumption. The New York Times predicts that the sharp drop in gasoline prices over the past few weeks will bring billions in additional retail revenue to the United States during the upcoming consumption season.

The analysis said that for those low- and middle-income American consumers, the drop in gasoline prices is particularly important. This segment of the population has yet to recover from the economic recovery of the past few years. While the job market has improved in recent years, most workers have received minimal wage increases over the past few years. As for those groups with the most financial constraints, they can breathe a little more relief from this gasoline price cut and shift their spending to other daily living or service expenses.

Americans currently spend $1 billion on gasoline every day. Gasoline price cuts will allow U.S. consumers to save a total of $8.4 billion in November and December this year compared with the same period last year. If a typical American household purchases 1,200 gallons (approximately 4,542 liters) of gasoline per year, current gasoline prices will allow them to save at least $400 per year. At the same time, the price of household fuel has also dropped by 15% compared with the same period last year, which is another additional savings that will be brought about by the lower oil prices.

In fact, the United States is not short of oil. The weekly inventory report issued by the U.S. Department of Energy last Thursday showed that U.S. crude oil production has risen to the highest level in 29 years: 9 million barrels per day. Based on this production calculation, the United States is almost equal to Saudi Arabia's daily output of 9.6 million barrels.

According to reports, the rise in U.S. oil production is inseparable from the application of new energy technologies: millions of tons of oil and gas have been pumped out of shale formations; several key oil pipelines have been updated and upgraded to redistribute flows from This change in the flow of oil from the central plains of the United States to the Gulf of Mexico has now filled the warehouses of smelters near the Gulf of Mexico with crude oil inventories. The United States has ended the era of importing crude oil from West African countries such as Nigeria.

But what adds fuel to the fire is that in the face of this round of falling oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has not reduced production. The recovery of Libyan oil production has exacerbated oversupply; at the same time, although the situation in Iraq remains volatile , but the country’s oil exports have hit a record since the Iraq war.

OPEC members even took the opportunity to engage in a price war. Saudi Arabia recently lowered the official selling price of crude oil exported to the United States. This move touched a sensitive nerve in the fight for market share. But OPEC, which once had all the power and influence over the world, is losing its ability to price crude oil. John Coldford believes that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran have all placed their hopes on China and other major crude oil customers in Asia, but competition in Asia is also fierce. In September this year, crude oil produced by the North Slope Oilfield in Alaska in the United States began to flow continuously. Continuously exported to South Korea.

On the one hand, supply has grown beyond expectations, but on the other hand, demand has become weaker. Due to lower-than-expected global economic recovery, the International Energy Agency's October report lowered its daily average growth forecast for global crude oil demand by 250,000 barrels and 90,000 barrels in 2014 and 2015, respectively. In addition, the Federal Reserve announced at the end of October that it will withdraw from its quantitative easing policy, which has brought about a new round of strength in the US dollar. The US dollar index has recently reached a five-year high, and the prices of crude oil and other bulk commodities priced in US dollars will continue to be suppressed.

By March next year, U.S. oil production may further rise to 9.5 million barrels per day or even higher. As the cold winter passes by then, the global oil consumption market will also fall into a sluggish state, followed by It’s oil prices that continue to hit bottom. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia was ready to face a "catastrophic" drop in oil prices.

Where is the bottom of oil prices? What factors influence oil prices?

According to the analysis of China Energy Network, there are currently no more than five factors that can influence international oil prices:

1. OPEC’s production

Since mid-June Since then, international oil prices have begun to enter a downward channel.

There are three specific sources: first, OPEC increased production by about 600,000 barrels/day, mainly from Libya, and the increases and decreases in other countries were roughly balanced; second, U.S. crude oil production increased by nearly 300,000 barrels/day; third, the three major energy agencies Demand expectations continue to be lowered by about 300,000 barrels per day. The drop in oil prices caused by oversupply will have the biggest impact on exporting countries, especially OPEC.

Therefore, the news that has attracted the most attention in the crude oil market in recent times all points to OPEC's production trends. The OPEC meeting will be held on November 27, but current market opinions are mixed, and it is still unclear whether production will be reduced in the end.

The current international oil prices have caused financial problems for most OPEC member countries. Therefore, analysts believe that the possibility of OPEC eventually limiting production and protecting prices is high. Even if OPEC does not lower its production quota of 30 million barrels per day, it can still achieve the effect of reducing production by requiring member countries to strictly abide by the quota. Because the current overall OPEC production is about 30.8 million barrels per day, exceeding the quota by nearly one million barrels.

If OPEC announces a production limit at its November meeting, the oversupply situation in the crude oil market will be greatly improved, a mountain that has suppressed crude oil for a long time will be removed, and international oil prices will rebound quickly and are expected to return to 90 US dollars. /top of barrel.

2. U.S. shale oil production

From the perspective of crude oil production costs, unconventional oil and gas assets are among the most expensive. The average cost of shale oil extraction in the United States is approximately US$65/barrel. But for some small and medium-sized shale oil companies, the cost can be as high as around US$75-80. Therefore, if the price of U.S. crude oil falls below US$80 per barrel, some production companies will face an economic test, followed by production cuts.

3. European and American sanctions on Iran

November 24 will usher in the deadline for Iran’s nuclear talks. The two sides will continue to compete around the nuclear issue to decide whether the two sides will make mutual decisions. concession. But recently, Obama said that "there are still huge differences, and I'm afraid we won't be able to achieve our goals." Previously, the United Nations Security Council imposed four rounds of sanctions on Iran, and Europe and the United States also unilaterally deepened sanctions on Iran. Currently, Europe and the United States allow Iran to export no more than 1 million barrels of oil per day. It is unlikely that the negotiations will reach a final outcome.

4. Actions in the futures market

In the past five months, due to the continuous release of bad news in the crude oil market, the bearish atmosphere in the futures market has also continued to heat up, and rare events have occurred. Short the wave. Taking U.S. crude oil futures as an example, since July, traders’ net long positions in U.S. crude oil futures and options have decreased by 53%, of which long positions have decreased by 32%, while short positions have increased by 111% during the same period! Although the current bearish atmosphere in the crude oil futures market has not been substantially improved, there is a phenomenon that requires vigilance.

5. The situation in oil-producing countries

Geographical tensions such as the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the violent acts of ISIS in the Middle East and the internal unrest in Libya are still active in the oil market. Relations between Russia and Ukraine have fallen into a tug-of-war, and as winter approaches, natural gas supply issues will increase Russia's bargaining chips. Territorial and energy trade disputes are expected to remain difficult to eradicate; recently, although tensions in the Middle East have eased, ISIS is still intermittent has aroused market nerves, and its potential risk factors cannot be ignored; the civil strife in Libya is becoming protracted, and the country's oil fields and ports are frequently opened and closed due to the interference of internal separatist forces, resulting in production growth still facing greater challenges.

Facts such as the sharp fall in oil prices, territorial disputes, and civil strife may lead to a large-scale escalation of the above-mentioned geopolitical risks. Once the situation escalates, crude oil futures prices will react quickly. However, as the overall market supply is relatively oversupplied, concerns about tight supply caused by geopolitical tensions will be weakened, so its impact will be relatively small.

Conspiracy theories are popular: The United States and Saudi Arabia want to "kill" Russia

Anything that happens in the oil industry can be explained by conspiracy theories. The recent collapse in oil prices is no exception.

According to Phoenix Finance, a recent New York Times editorial published an article by Thomas Friedman discussing conspiracy theories. "Is this my imagination? Or has a global oil war really broken out? Between the United States and Saudi Arabia on one side and Russia and Iran on the other," the former Middle East journalist asked in a recent column, before asking himself questions and answers. : "Yes" and believes that the United States and Saudi Arabia are trying to put their rivals Iran and Russia, which mainly rely on oil revenue, to death. At the same time, conspiracy theories are also popular in Russia.

The important news in Russia's "Pravda" is: "Obama wants Saudi Arabia to destroy our economy."

In fact, Saudi Arabia is the oil producer with the largest remaining production capacity and has always been a force influencing the oil market. When there is a bubble in oil prices, Saudi Arabia increases production to curb the rise in prices, and when prices fall, it reduces production to support the market. Oil prices began to plummet at the end of the summer, with Saudi Arabia widely expected to cut production as usual. But contrary to expectations, Saudi Arabia announced last month that it would strive to "maintain market share" and would not cut production to support oil prices.

Although people can't help but interpret Saudi Arabia's approach from a political perspective, its strategy can also be explained by multiple economic reasons. The most obvious reason is that the United States is no longer an extremely embarrassing political ally for Saudi Arabia.

In the past, the United States has been importing large amounts of Saudi crude oil, but now there is a "leaf oil revolution", and the United States has changed from Saudi Arabia's major customer to its main competitor.

Since the production cost of leaf rock oil is higher than the cost of oil extraction in Saudi Arabia, one of the strategies to deal with competition is to lower the oil price and force leaf rock oil producers to exit the market. Currently, the Saudis have been unable to use this tactic because oil prices have been higher than the cost of shale production based on a number of supply and political factors. Just in recent months, the global oil market has experienced an unexpected surge in supply, but a sharp drop in demand. Oil prices have fallen about 25% since June, falling below $80 a barrel last week.

If Saudi Arabia now cuts production to support prices, the United States can expand shale oil production to attack its key points, and the Arabian Peninsula will inevitably end up with reduced crude oil revenue. The only strategy Saudi Arabia can adopt now is to force the United States to become another crude oil supplier. If this statement is correct, its implications are very significant. This means that the drop in oil prices will not be a short-lived phenomenon, but frequent price wars will break out between the world's two largest crude oil suppliers, becoming the basic pattern of the global oil market.

Of course, some people say that the so-called conspiracy theory is a bit far-fetched.

According to reports from NetEase Finance, many people naturally believe that finance and the political landscape have a profound relationship, but changes in supply and demand are the final destination of all external factors, including weak economic recovery and the world’s growing demand for crude oil energy. The decline in dependence is the driving force behind its gradual decline towards US$80/barrel.

It was reported that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year from 3.4% to 3.3%, and the economic weakness is still obvious; the International Energy Agency (IEA) 10 On March 14, it lowered its daily oil demand growth forecast for this year from 700,000 barrels to 200,000 barrels, the lowest in five years. But what needs to be noted is that lower energy prices will not only bring negative impacts. In the difficult period of economic recovery, the benefits of lower energy costs to industry are obvious.

With the development of technology, the world's current dependence on crude oil is far less important than during the oil crisis of the last century. In addition, the improvement of the mining capabilities of various countries and the rapid development of alternative energy sources, as well as the long-term investment and development of shale in the United States, Oil has begun to enter a period of rapid growth in production, causing the average daily crude oil production in the United States to increase by 13% year-on-year this year to 8.8 million barrels in September. It is about to surpass Saudi Arabia and become the world's largest crude oil producer. Therefore, OPEC's monopoly control over global oil prices has already been greatly enhanced. discount. Data show that the crude oil produced by non-OPEC countries currently accounts for more than 50% of the world's crude oil trade, compared with less than 30% in the 1970s. In addition, not only is it difficult for OPEC and non-OPEC countries to coordinate actions, OPEC internal members also often disagree.

As we all know, Russia’s finances are very dependent on oil revenue. Russia sells 7.2 million barrels/day of crude oil to the international market, accounting for 45% of Russia’s fiscal revenue. Its fiscal profit line is approximately US$102/barrel. If the price of crude oil remains at US$90/barrel, Russia's fiscal revenue will decrease by 1.5% in 2015. The damage of falling oil prices is indeed reflected. However, according to the US shale oil cost of US$85/barrel, it is almost inevitable for US shale oil production companies to fall into losses, which will also affect the employment of 2 million people. ? "This is not what the Obama administration wants to see.

What benefits has the eight consecutive declines in oil prices brought to the people?

Affected by the continued plunge in international oil prices, the National Development and Reform Commission announced again yesterday that it would lower the price of refined oil. Since July 22 this year, domestic oil prices have experienced a rare "eight consecutive declines." After the implementation of this price adjustment, the retail prices of No. 90 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have dropped by 1.11 yuan and 1.25 yuan per liter respectively since July 22. Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel have generally fallen back to the "6 yuan era."

So, what benefits can the "eight consecutive declines" bring to the people?

1. According to a report from Southern Metropolis Daily, the fuel consumption cost of private cars has dropped significantly. Taking a monthly mileage of 2,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8L per 100 kilometers as an example, private car owners will reduce their monthly fuel costs by about 23 yuan after this price adjustment. If calculated based on the cumulative decline of "eight consecutive declines", the total monthly fuel consumption for travel has been reduced by about 185 yuan.

2. Lower prices and stimulate consumption. Taxi, aviation, tourism and other industries have all benefited from low oil prices, reducing travel costs for ordinary consumers and indirectly stimulating consumption.

3. The country’s crude oil import costs have decreased. The price of oil per barrel in New York hit a new closing low since October 2011; the price of oil per barrel of Brent in London hit a new low since September 2010. In October 2013, China surpassed the United States to become the world's largest oil importer. According to expert analysis, for every US$10 drop in the annual average international crude oil price, China will save US$20 billion in import costs.

4. Indirectly stimulate economic growth. As China's economic growth slows down, falling oil prices can reduce economic operating costs, thereby stimulating economic growth and transformation and upgrading.