Is the contradiction between ethnic groups really the cause of Yugoslavia's disintegration?
The real driving force behind the civil war in the former Yugoslavia
The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (also known as "Second Yugoslavia"), which was born after the Second World War, had a peaceful development for 45 years. Why did it disintegrate in 1991 and a bitter civil war broke out? The traditional saying is: Yugoslavs always struggle with each other or fight for independence. After the death of strongman Tito in 198, no leader had his prestige. In addition, with the end of the Cold War, the inherent ethnic contradictions within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia led to the conflict of economic interests, which led to a political crisis and eventually pushed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia to split.
There is some truth in this statement, but the fact is that all ethnic groups in Yugoslavia have lived together in one country for nearly a century, established all-round ties with each other, and have close economic relations, and mixed families abound. Therefore, most of the extreme hatred that appeared in the 199s was the product of war and opportunistic political practices, rather than the original existence.
So, why does Slovenia want independence? The answer is ironic: it was European integration and free trade that disintegrated the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. This makes Western Europe a safer and more economically attractive place for small countries. After World War I, Slovenia was saved from being carved up by Italy, Germany and Austria by uniting with other southern Slavs. However, by the end of 198s, the view that Slovenia and Croatia, with relatively rich economies, were separated from other backward partners and were close to Western Europe became more and more popular.
Slovenia, Croatia and Serbia, led by Milosevic, have held several rounds of negotiations, but they have failed. At that time, with the exception of Germany, European powers and the United States clearly opposed the secession of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia for the purpose of maintaining stability in the Balkans. "But what is puzzling is that almost at the same time, a public report of the US Central Intelligence Agency makes people seem to see the contradiction of the US policy toward Yugoslavia. Some historians now analyze that it is precisely the report of the CIA that makes the disintegration that could have been avoided irreversible. "
At the end of p>199, the US Central Intelligence Agency presented a forecast report on the situation in Yugoslavia to President Bush, who was deadlocked in the Gulf War. The report said: "Yugoslavia will disintegrate in the next 18 months." This prediction caused an uproar in the world, and the Yugoslav authorities immediately issued a statement, strongly protesting and condemning it, and most international public opinion thought it was sheer nonsense. It is by no means well-intentioned or accidental for the United States to publish this report when the situation in Yugoslavia is delicate. At first, the international community generally expressed doubts about its prediction, but in less than a year, the development of the situation fulfilled the CIA's statement. It was also said that it was this report that inspired the ethnic separatists in the former Yugoslavia and accelerated their actions to split the Yugoslav Federation.
Serbs have lost a bad reputation
During the civil war in the former Yugoslavia, "ethnic cleansing" occurred frequently, and all parties were responsible. But why did the Serbs end up with the notoriety of "doing SS business"? Even the later Serbian Prime Minister Jin Jiqi (who was assassinated) himself admitted that "the reputation of our Serbs is really bad".
During the whole civil war in the former Yugoslavia, the warring parties took international assistance, including the support of international public opinion, as their goal. Even spend a lot of money to invite public relations companies in the United States and Canada to create a "good international image" for themselves and vilify their opponents. Molino, editor-in-chief of France TV 2, once interviewed harff, president of Ludwig PR Company, the most influential global public affairs agency, to tell the whole story about the "manufacturing process" of public opinion. Molino described harff's answer in his book The Reality in Yugoslavia is Hard to Say:
"We succeeded in getting Jews on our side ... Because Croatian President tudjman was careless in his book The Misdirection of Historical Facts, anyone who read this book would accuse him of being an anti-Semitic ... Besides, there were indeed cruel persecution of Jews in Croatia and Bosnia in the past. As a result, our work is outstanding. On August 2nd and 5th, 1992, it happened that new york's "news daily" broke the news that Serbs had set up concentration camps, and the titles used were "Death Camp" and "Serb Death Camp". We took the opportunity to win over three huge Jewish organizations to our side ...
"You know, the Yugoslav issue is extremely complicated, and no one knows what happened there. In fact, most Americans will ask,' Where in Africa is Bosnia? And in a flash, we made up a simple story of a good guy and a bad guy.
"Our task is not to check whether the content of the news is true or not ... We are not paid to publicize moral theories, and even if we are responsible, we are very calm. If you want to prove that Serbs are victims, you might as well try. Your situation must be very isolated. "
in fact, without the support of hegemonic power, no matter how powerful a public relations company is, it can't dominate the world. On August 28, 1995, a mortar shell exploded in the center of Sarajevo, the capital of Bosnia and Herzegovina, killing more than 1 innocent civilians. The peacekeeping force did not reach a conclusion after the investigation that day, but announced the next day that the massacre was committed by Serbs. To this day, it is still a mystery who fired this shell. Ballistics experts believe that it is impossible for Serbian armed forces located on the high mountains of Saskatchewan to have such bullet tracks. Newspapers in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia even think that this is a "bitter plan" staged by the Mu nationality at the instigation of American intelligence agencies.
bring down Milosevic's regime
after the Kosovo war, intelligence agencies such as the CIA and the British MI6 re-entered Yugoslavia. At this time, their purpose is clear, that is to subvert the Milosevic regime.
The United States also provided a large amount of funds to the Serbian opposition through the National Foundation for Democracy, which amounted to $1 million in 1999 and increased to $31 million in 2. Many Americans who participated in the anti-rice movement revealed that the State Council and AID played a leading role in this activity, and the allocation of funds was handed over by GFAA to the National Democratic Promotion Consortium through commercial contracts, and then non-profit organizations such as National Democratic Institute, International Institute for Democracy and Regime Research were responsible for specific operations.
Doug Shawn, a pollster from Payne, Shawn and Burland Polling Company, a large American professional election company, also made an in-depth analysis of the poll results of Serbian voters, in order to help the Serbian opposition coalition find a way to overthrow Milosevic, the "immortal bird" in European politics. After analysis and research, Sean gave advice to the Serbian opposition party, which has been in a state of disintegration: Michaelis, a "survivor" who has experienced four war defeats, two large-scale demonstrations, 78 days of NATO bombing and nearly 1 years of international sanctions, will be "absolutely vulnerable" if he faces another well-organized campaign challenge. Later, the State Council and the CIA made up their minds to adopt Sean's suggestion and unite the fragmented Yugoslav opposition parties.
Since then, western intelligence agencies have invested a lot of money in Yugoslavia to support anti-government forces. Similarly, a large number of broadcasting equipment, computers and even small printing equipment have been flowing into Serbia. By the beginning of the general election, the United States had also paid 5, cans of paint for Serbian student movement organizations, so that they could scribble anti-rice slogans and slogans all over Serbia at will. From July to October, 2, the United States sponsored 2.5 million stickers with the words "Gotovje" (meaning "he is finished" in Serbian, which later became the slogan of the whole "rice-throwing campaign"), weighing 8 tons. During this period, these stickers were posted all over Serbia, and even covered Mie's campaign advertisements with them. Similarly, the "OTPOR" (resistance) movement organization logo printed with American funds-clenched fists can also be seen everywhere.
By the end of the election in 2, the United States, Britain and Germany * * * had provided more than $6 million for the activities of the Southern Opposition.
Shortly after the Kosovo war, an official of the Serbian government said that the Americans had been in contact with the Yugoslav army and threatened them: "(We) will increase the number of war criminals to 6, so you can either tell me when to betray your boss or you can go to The Hague (for trial)." An American intelligence official confirmed that American intelligence personnel have been looking for defectors who can bring Milosevic down.
At the same time of political war, the western countries led by the United States also strengthened economic sanctions against Yugoslavia. In the Stability Pact for South-Eastern Europe adopted in July 1999, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia also failed to receive a dollar of assistance. In addition, South African enterprises are blacklisted and whitelisted respectively based on whether they support the Michaelis regime or not, and the blacklisted South African enterprises will not be able to do business with enterprises in EU countries.
Because of the wrong judgment of these things, Milosevic made a decision in July 2: to hold the presidential election of Yugoslavia in advance on September 24th of that year. On September 28th, the Election Commission of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia announced the results of the presidential election: opposition candidate Kostunica won 48.96% of the votes, while Milosevic won 38.62%. Therefore, a second round of elections will be held in two weeks. However, the opposition believes that this is the result of Michaelis' "political fraud". In fact, Kostunica won the general election with more than 52% of the votes in the first round. Therefore, the opposition party called for a national resistance movement. On October 5, the large-scale attack on parliament by opposition party organizations ended with the defection of the "Red Berets" of the South Special Forces and the "non-interference in the democratization process" of the South Military. Milosevic lost the presidency.
It was later reported in The New York Times and Washington post that the US Congress allocated $77 million to directly intervene in the domestic politics of Yugoslavia. On the second day after the election in Yugoslavia, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill again, approving the allocation of $15 million to help the anti-Milosevic factions in Yugoslavia.
On April 1st, 21, Milosevic was arrested and sent to The Hague for trial at the former Yugoslavia War Crimes Tribunal. Before Michaelis was sent to The Hague, Montgomery, the U.S. ambassador to Yugoslavia, formally informed President Kostunica of Yugoslavia that if the Yugoslav government did not cooperate with The Hague Tribunal, the United States would cancel its plan of providing 1 million U.S. dollars in aid to South Africa this fiscal year.