Although the interest rate hike has not yet appeared, the market has changed: after the news was announced, the US dollar index soared and gold plummeted; Us stocks also fell sharply first and then rebounded; The yield of US bonds soared, and the probability of raising interest rates at the end of the year soared to 66.2%. ? Usually, without raising interest rates, the dollar index is mostly static or falling, as is gold, and it is even more difficult for the stock market to fluctuate greatly. Why is this different?
In fact, the strength of the stock market and the dollar, and the weakness of gold just show that the market has understood the logic behind the Fed's "no interest rate increase and contraction": the market still needs to adjust, but the US economic expectation is already improving. In fact, whether it is raising interest rates or shrinking the table, it is a process of liquidity contraction. In short, it is to puncture the "bubble" blown by quantitative easing policy. However, this time, the Fed did not choose to "raise interest rates", but chose to "shrink the table".
Why didn't the Fed raise interest rates? The most direct reason is that the inflation rate is far from the 2% rate hike line set by it. As it said in the statement, "the overall inflation and inflation index excluding food and energy prices have decreased this year compared with the same period of last year, and it has been lower than 2%", "the market-oriented inflation compensation index is still low, and the longer-term inflation expectation index based on the survey has not changed much".
In fact, when formulating monetary policy, the Fed needs to consider the situation of major economies, including China. In February last year, the Fed failed to raise interest rates as expected; At that time, China was in the range of RMB depreciation. If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the Bank of China will have to follow suit to keep the RMB from depreciating, which will add insult to injury to China's economy. This time, the Federal Reserve did not raise interest rates, which is considered to leave a window for China monetary authorities to take measures.
On the other hand, if the table is reduced and the interest rate is raised, the impact on the market will be too great. The so-called Fed shrinkage is simply that the Fed sells bonds bought during the previous quantitative easing period. This is similar to the People's Bank of China's repurchase or raising the deposit reserve ratio, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will recover US dollars.
Continue to pay attention to the dynamics.