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What is the future development direction and prospect of the International Monetary Fund?
Due to its inherent limitations, the gold standard monetary system is no longer applicable to the development of modern economy. The collapse of the Bretton Woods system announced the decoupling of modern money from gold, and the monetary function of gold is gradually deteriorating. The current international financial system was established on the basis of the Bretton Woods system after World War II. Under this system, national currencies are linked to the US dollar, and indirectly linked to gold through the US dollar. In fact, the Federal Reserve is playing the role of the world's central bank. In this case, the rise and fall of the dollar will have a far-reaching impact on the world economy. In fact, the Asian financial crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis and the current high oil price are all closely related to the existing US dollar payment system. Due to the changes in the global industrial layout, and the US dollar is the most important payment tool in the world, problems will arise when the US dollar is tight and loose. If the intrinsic value of the dollar changes, it will cause worldwide financial problems. The industry has moved out of the United States, and the payment system is still centered on the US dollar. There is a contradiction between the industry and the US dollar, which is a fundamental reason for the Asian financial crisis 1 1 years ago. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States was originally a regional product crisis, but it has evolved into a crisis that affects the financial system, even a profound crisis that hurts the global financial system, which is also related to the dollar system. Fortunately, the Asian financial crisis played a warning role, and the United States took an important measure, that is, the central bank began to rescue and replenish liquidity to ensure that the debt chain would not break. The recent surge in oil prices is also related to the dollar. Under the current dollar-centered payment system, oil prices are priced in dollars, and the depreciation of the dollar naturally causes oil prices to rise. Of course, there is a demand factor in this change. It is generally believed that the rising demand for oil in emerging countries such as China and India has led to the rise of global oil prices. But from the financial point of view, there are problems in the international monetary system. Because oil can be designed as a very standard product in financial products, it can also be designed as operational futures, so there is the trading of oil futures. Judging from the oil spot market, the supply and demand in the spot market are basically balanced, and theoretically, the price should not rise sharply. However, due to the rise in the futures market price, the spot market price is also rising, forming a cycle. As a result, the six Gulf countries once proposed whether a new monetary tool, such as petroleum currency, should be created to curb the unreasonable rise of oil prices and stop the speculation of such financial institutions. It profoundly reveals some contradictions and problems in the international monetary system centered on the US dollar. To solve the internal contradictions of the international monetary system, we must build a new international monetary system. The existence and development of human civilization can not be separated from currency, and the currency with unstable value is not conducive to the development of human civilization. It is conceivable that in the future multipolar and competitive international monetary system, the currencies of several big countries will dominate, and other small economies will use the currencies of big countries as reserves or directly use the currencies of big countries as their own circulating currencies. On the one hand, the multipolar competitive monetary system can ensure the growth of the real economy to obtain sufficient money supply; On the other hand, the multi-polar competitive currency pattern also provides a certain competitive mechanism for the currencies of major countries to maintain the stability of their currencies. The currencies of major countries that lack sufficient financial constraints and current account constraints will be at a disadvantage in the dominant currency competition pattern, and peripheral countries will reduce the proportion of this currency in foreign exchange reserves and turn to the dominant currency with relatively stable currency value. The competition mechanism of multipolar currencies will help to promote the major currency issuing countries to implement sufficient currency issuance discipline and maintain currency stability. Under the background of globalization, economic, trade and capital exchanges between countries are becoming more and more frequent, and the currency issued by small economies has a natural disadvantage that it is difficult to resist large-scale capital flows. With the increase of international capital mobility, the types of currencies in small countries tend to decrease. The development of Euro in recent ten years has confirmed the important role of regional currency in the development of the international monetary system, and currency regionalization, multipolarization and competition will become the remarkable features of the future international monetary system. The international monetary system is responsible for the reconstruction of RMB. With the globalization of industrial division of labor, there is still a lack of an effective international monetary system. In this context, the RMB not only bears important responsibilities, but also has the conditions for internationalization. It is very necessary and urgent to join this reconstruction process. In fact, we have seen a precedent in the construction of the international monetary system, that is, the establishment of the euro. The euro is the product of such an international monetary system crisis, and its development is promoting the contradiction sublimation of such a system, which brings a lot of enlightenment. In this sense, the future international currency may be divided into several regions. Europe has shown us such a prospect. The United States is likely to be centered on the dollar, and Asia is centered on the Asian dollar. In fact, the arrangement of the Asian monetary system, including "10+3" and the Madrid agreement, has actually taken shape, that is, the establishment of the Asian dollar system. As a big country in Asia, China has a huge balance of payments surplus, and China plays such an important role in this region. The renminbi not only has the ability, but also has the conditions to assume the responsibility of building the Asian-dollar system. China's internationalization process is already deep, and China's economy is inseparable from the world economy. One of the biggest characteristics of this century is the imbalance between internal and external macro-economy in China, which is mainly manifested in the huge foreign exchange reserves. Having such a large surplus in the balance of payments may bring great challenges. Such a challenge, on the one hand, shows that the RMB needs internationalization; On the other hand, it also shows that with the rise of China's economy, a new equilibrium state has emerged, which is the equilibrium between China and the United States. Conversely, China's surplus is invested in American capital market, which constitutes the main part of international capital inflow. There have been some strange situations between the two countries, which have also formed the basis of Sino-US strategic economic dialogue, and no one can live without anyone. Now this equilibrium can only develop to a certain extent. In the long run, the internationalization of the financial system has also been put on the agenda. Therefore, as a large developing country, it is very necessary for China to join such an international monetary system.