Invited guest of Dongsen Qianbao, the largest financial program in Taiwan Province Province, columnist of major financial media in Taiwan Province Province, now manager of global quantitative trading private equity fund (PE), columnist of Futures Daily, supplier of CCTV futures time contest-strategy, judge of quantitative fund manager contest of the 7th National Firm Futures Competition, and programmed investment consultant of Qihe.com Futures China.
The trading team led by the program spans the fields of economy, statistics, computer engineering, financial engineering, etc., and runs global quantitative investment, especially good at intraday trading. Since participating in the intraday trading of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures, it has maintained good returns (from 20 1 1 to May of 20 12, pure intraday account operation, maximum withdrawal 15%, and 70% in the case of non-compound interest growth of continuous withdrawal).
The 7th National Futures Firm Trading Competition won the first place in the "Programmed Trading Group", with a six-month net value of 1 to 5.25, and a maximum withdrawal rate of 3.35%.
In the second season of the Oriental Wisdom Programmatic Trading Firm Competition, it won the first place in the "Programmatic Trading Group", with a single profit of 142.89% in five months and a withdrawal of 3. 13%.
20 13 won the first place in the CCTV Futures Time Program Trading Competition, and earned 78.58% on 20 13, and retired 13.8%.
Like most investors or people in the futures industry, when I first heard the word "speech program", I naturally thought of Jerry Yan, the actor of "Doumyouji Tsukasa" in Meteor Garden. The speech program is a veritable star in the futures industry. For this name, the speech program also has its own explanation. "Procedures can obviously be linked with programmed transactions. In other words, we hope to promote our ideas through speeches and media communication. " Although "speech program" is his personal stage name, he feels that it represents the whole company team, and he just expounds the central idea of the whole team as a representative of the team. Now, as several products invested and operated by him, he has a stable income. For example, Qi Heyan's program trading team Fund No.0 was established on February 3, 20 13, with a total scale of 34.9 million. Now (20 14, 19), its net value is 1. 168. Danqi Fund was established on February, 2065438 14, with a total scale of 30 million. Now (September19,2065438), its net value is 1. 185. Recently, the plan is still in the capacity of investment, and plans to issue a product called Mada Yanqi 3.
It is no accident that the plan chooses financial markets. When he was young, his father went bankrupt because he invested in futures. What impressed him most at that time was his father's words: "son, don't touch futures and stocks, it's harmful." However, the program did not give up. Instead, he felt that he should do something valuable for his father who failed to achieve his goal in the futures market. After entering this industry, the speech program realized that his father's failure was because he could not overcome the weakness of human nature, so he found a quantitative way. Before the programmed trading and quantitative trading were widely spread in China, the speech program also adopted subjective trading, which also made him bankrupt again. In 2003, programmed trading was introduced into Taiwan Province Province, and the first reaction of the program was: Yes, this is what we want! Then they do business according to technical analysis, quantitative values or statistical signals, but the programming at that time was not so advanced as it is now. It can only give signals and must be implemented manually, which is mixed with human weaknesses. After failing, he finally decided to hand it over to the computer for execution. With the development of programmed trading and the continuous development and research of the team, he finally realized fully automatic programmed trading, which also made the whole team gain wealth growth in the financial tsunami in 2008.
Why does the program, including his whole team, trust quantitative trading so much? First, excellent subjective traders have their own ideas that can stabilize profits and cannot be copied. Second, according to statistics, people who engage in quantitative trading will live longer in the market. Third, with the development of asset management era, the scale of management products is gradually expanding as an oral procedure of investment. He firmly believes that quantitative trading is a behavior mode that can control large funds. But at the same time, he said in an interview, speech or other media interviews with China Futures that quantification should not be deified. Quantification is an investment tool, with 90% people losing money and 10% making money. If you want to be a member of this 10%, you need to make a good strategy, moderately optimize and control the funds.
According to Futures China, the strategies formulated by the program group include intraday, overnight and spread arbitrage strategies. Each group has at least 3-6 portfolios, so there will be about 20 strategic portfolios. In the backup policy library, there may be more than 50 policies. "Our development strategy is very fast, and simple ideas 1 and 2 days can be completed." Although it is not difficult for the program to make a strategy, he thinks that after the strategy is made, don't rush to place an order with real money, observe it for at least 3 months first, and then use it after the performance curve goes up. After all, it takes some time for a strategy to be put into use. The only certainty of the market is its uncertainty, so there is no strategy that can be profitable forever, so the program thinks it is necessary to optimize the strategy appropriately. In the use of strategies, different schemes will allocate different strategies according to different fund scales. For an account of 1 10,000, he will make an intraday 6-hand stock index and an overnight 1 hand stock index. For accounts exceeding 100000, 40% of the stock index is intraday, 10% is overnight, and 20% of the commodity price difference is arbitrage. Integrate all strategies as much as possible to make the whole yield curve smooth.
When the big market comes, some people will take the initiative to choose to add positions, so as to get more profits. But from the procedural point of view, overweight only applies to experts, and for ordinary investors, it will only increase costs and risks. This is an act of increasing risk and expanding leverage. If the market reverses, the losses will be great. However, if you can do two hands, the second hand will not be overweight, so you can do different strategies. Although they are two different strategies, they will all enter the market in the same big market. In a small market, one strategy is other, and starting another strategy will naturally have the effect of overweight. At the end of the program, it is emphasized that if there is no great confidence and confidence, and there is no big-band market, don't be numb and add positions.
"Quantitative trading is easy to get started. It is just a technology, but capital control is an art, because no matter how good the strategy is, if you trade heavily, everything will be zero one day. Without capital control, no matter how many times the income is doubled, as long as you lose 50% next year, your capital will all die. This is a very bloody phenomenon. " The program also published a point in a certain media: the most painful thing in the world is that you can't do anything about the people, things and things you care about, and it is even more painful to find that it is yourself who destroys all this. Therefore, strict capital control and discipline can ensure survival. The team limited the risk of bankruptcy to near zero. Don't rush for success, don't go against the sky, because living is more important than anything else. The biggest risk of a heavy position is that even if your program forecast is 90% correct, 10% will generate significant losses. And this 10% probability may make your wealth zero. The program account displayed on CCTV's futures time weapon spectrum was made at a price of 654.38+00,000 yuan every day, ranking first until July 2065.438+04. At the beginning of the competition, it took more than a year, ranking around 50 and winning the first place. "My rate of return is not high, earning 1% and 2% every day. My strategy is always below 50%. "