after the "accidental" mine explosion of Yongmei Holdings, domestic and foreign bonds of many coal enterprises, city investment companies and local state-owned enterprises continued to plummet, and investors questioned the credit quality of some enterprises, which triggered the butterfly effect.

1

plunge

Recently, after Yongmei Holdings defaulted, some coal enterprises were implicated and their bonds changed obviously.

Among them, the "13 Pingmei Bond" issued by Pingmei Co., Ltd. has fallen for two consecutive days, and it fell by nearly 8% on November 12 and was reported to 78 yuan; Jizhong Energy "16 Jizhong 1" fell nearly 6% to 88.7 yuan; Yangmei Group even cancelled the issuance of 2 billion corporate bonds.

historical trend of "13 Pingdingshan Coal Debt"

After the bond crash, Pingdingshan Coal Co., Ltd. will hold an emergency investor meeting, indicating that it has prepared the funds needed for the full resale of "18 Tianan Coal MTN1" at the end of this month, and the company's current production and operation are normal and its cash flow is sufficient.

In addition to affecting coal enterprises, the impact of Yongmei Holdings' debt default is still spreading to enterprises such as city investment and state-owned enterprises, and the butterfly effect begins.

On November 12th, the dollar debt of Yunnan Urban Construction Investment Group and Chongqing Energy Investment Group continued to fall, hitting a record low. In addition, the bond prices in its onshore market have also been falling, among which "19 Yuntou 1" fell by about 1% to 89 yuan, hitting a record low in 82 yuan earlier.

Historical trend of "19 Yuntou 1"

In addition, the bonds of Ziguang Group, which are already at the center of public opinion, continued to plummet, among which "19 Ziguang 2", "18 Ziguang 4" and "19 Ziguang 1" all fell by more than 3%, and they stopped for the second time in intraday trading; At the same time, Tsinghua Holding's corporate bond "16 Qingkong 2" also stopped for the second time, falling more than 3% to 4 yuan; "16 Clearing Control 2" 1 The platform of Shanghai Stock Exchange shows the transaction price of 39 yuan.

market participants believe that if the risk events cannot be effectively alleviated, the risks of weak qualified local state-owned enterprises will continue to be cleared, and investor confidence will continue to be impacted. Due to the large circulation of state-owned enterprise bonds in these places, there are many holding institutions in the market. Once the market investment institutions form a consistent risk preference expectation, it is likely to cause stampede in the process of selling bonds.

It is worth noting that China Association of Interbank Market Dealers has initiated a self-discipline investigation on Yongmei Holdings and other related institutions.

in the course of investigation, if the relevant institutions are found to have violated the self-discipline rules, the dealers' association will give them strict self-discipline punishment; If the relevant institutions are suspected of fraudulent issuance, false information disclosure and other illegal acts, the Dealers Association will hand them over to the relevant departments for further handling.

.2 billion

21 billion debt

Some people say that as the largest provincial coal enterprise group in Henan Province, Henan Energy and Chemical Industry Group (hereinafter referred to as "Yuneng Chemical Group") can watch its subsidiary Yongmei Holdings fall in from ruin? In fact, the debt situation of Yunenghua Group is even worse.

According to official website, Yunenghua Group is a state-owned super-large energy and chemical group, and its industries mainly involve energy, high-end chemicals, modern materials and trade, financial services, intelligent manufacturing and new alloy materials.

Yunenghua Group has two listed companies, Dayou Energy (643.SH) and Jiutian Chemical (listed in Singapore), and a new third board listed company, Puyang Luyu Foam.

official website, Yunenghua Group

In recent years, due to the decline in profitability of the coal chemical sector, the profit loss of Yunenghua Group's operating business has greatly increased, and its profit mainly comes from investment income.

In p>219 and the first three quarters of this year, Yunenghua Group realized a net profit of-2.113 billion yuan and-1.964 billion yuan, respectively, with serious losses and continued negative undistributed profits.

profitability

By the end of the third quarter of this year, Yunenghua Group had total assets of 264.221 billion yuan, total liabilities of 215.476 billion yuan, net assets of 48.746 billion yuan and asset-liability ratio of 81.55%.

In recent years, the financial leverage of Yunenghua Group has been maintained at a very high level, which is obviously higher than the industry average, and the debt risk is high.

the level of financial leverage

by analyzing the debt structure, it is found that Yunenghua Group mainly has current liabilities, accounting for 75% of the total liabilities, and the debt structure is unreasonable.

It is worth noting that due to the high current liabilities, the current assets of Yunenghua Group have been unable to cover the former, and its latest current ratio and quick ratio are 64.4% and 56.39% respectively, and the solvency index of short-term debts continues to deteriorate.

By the end of the third quarter of this year, the current liabilities of Yunenghua Group were 162.595 billion yuan, mainly short-term loans, notes payable and accounts payable, with 82.874 billion yuan of short-term liabilities due within one year and 121.259 billion yuan of short-term interest-bearing liabilities.

compared with short-term debt, the liquidity of Yunenghua Group is extremely tight. At present, its monetary fund on account is 28.563 billion yuan, which cannot cover short-term debt. The ratio of short-term debt to cash is .34, and the short-term risk of debt is huge.

in terms of reserve funds, as of the end of March this year, the total bank credit of Yunenghua Group was 225.3 billion yuan, and the unused credit line was over 1 billion yuan, which seemed to have good financial flexibility.

Bank credit

In addition, Yunenghua Group has non-current liabilities of 52.88 billion yuan, mainly bonds payable and long-term loans, and its long-term interest-bearing liabilities total over 4 billion yuan.

in terms of surviving bonds, at present, Yunenghua Group * * * has 21 bonds, with a scale of 26.13 billion yuan, and its bonds to be redeemed and sold back in 221 will exceed 2 billion yuan, facing great pressure of centralized maturity of bonds.

maturity distribution of surviving bonds

overall, the rigid debt of Yunenghua Group is 161.48 billion yuan, mainly short-term interest-bearing liabilities, with the interest-bearing debt ratio of 75%.

Interest-bearing liabilities are high, and the annual financial expenses of Yunenghua Group are staggering. Since 218, its financial expenses have been 8.765 billion yuan, 7.982 billion yuan and 5.123 billion yuan respectively, which has seriously eroded profits.

In terms of debt repayment funds, Yunenghua Group mainly relies on external financing, and its financing channels are diversified. Besides issuing bonds and borrowing, it also raises funds through lease financing, accounts receivable financing, equity financing, equity pledge and trust.

Although there are many financing channels, the net cash flow of financing of Yunenghua Group is a net outflow all the year round, which shows that its external financing environment has deteriorated.

financing cash flow

As the largest provincial coal group in Henan Province, Yunenghua Group has been strongly supported by the provincial government in terms of resource acquisition, divestiture of enterprises to run society and coordination of financial institutions to implement debt-to-equity swaps.

Since p>217, Yunenghua Group has signed a large-scale debt-to-equity swap agreement with a number of financial institutions, which has accumulated 17 billion yuan, and the term of its debt-to-equity swap funds is mostly 3-7 years, which has greatly eased the financial pressure.

Generally speaking, Yunenghua Group has surpassed its subsidiary Yongmei Holdings in terms of debt burden, financial leverage level and liquidity pressure. Due to the default of Yongmei's debt, it has been downgraded to BB by rating companies, and the external financing environment has deteriorated sharply, further weakening liquidity.

3

1 billion debt default

Since p>218, under the strict supervision of financial and government debt, the external financing environment has changed, with a large amount of financing in the early stage, the debt of radical expansion enterprises has expired, the capital turnover is difficult, and the phenomenon of centralized bond default has been serious.

since the beginning of this year, there have been 119 bond defaults in China's credit bond market, with a total default scale of 15.4 billion yuan. Although the number of defaulted bonds has decreased a lot compared with last year, the default scale is quite the same.

distribution of defaults over the years

from the perspective of bond default industry, the comprehensive industry is still far ahead. This year, 48 bonds in this industry defaulted, accounting for 54.6 billion yuan, accounting for half of the country.

due to the decline of market risk preference and the aggravation of risk aversion, private enterprises, especially small and medium-sized private enterprises, have poor ability to resist risks, so private enterprises account for the majority in the centralized default cycle.

It is worth noting that this year, there have also been defaults of state-owned enterprises with high AAA rating and assets of 1 billion yuan, such as Brilliance Holdings and Yongmei Holdings, whose industries are in a recession cycle.

in terms of the single default scale, Tianfang Group's "15-day room PPN1" has a default scale of 3.337 billion, which is the largest single default bond, and there are 5 other bonds with a default scale exceeding 3 billion.

compared with the past, in 22, the debt pressure of real estate enterprises is not small, and the refinancing of "three red lines" is limited. There are 5 real estate enterprises in default bonds this year, involving 12 bonds.

22 is an extraordinary year. Under the influence of the epidemic, business operations have been hit hard, and debt default tends to accelerate.

Some seemingly "too big to fail" enterprises have fallen down quickly, and even are suspected of "evading debts". Those fallen giants will have difficulty in debt restructuring in the long process.