From the perspective of global economy, resources will always be scarce, and from the current Huaxia fund products, there are only a handful of funds that can invest in global resource listed companies, such as the China Merchants Global Resource Stock Fund, which is being issued, which is also a scarce variety. Among the top five global market value growth in the past decade, resource stocks accounted for four. It is understood that these five bull stocks are Apple Computer in the United States, BHP Billiton in Australia, Petrobras, Gazprom and Vale in Brazil.
Zhang Yibin, the proposed fund manager of China Merchants global sources: Rare things are precious.
2010 March 1 1 05:57 National Business Daily
Brief introduction of Zhang Yibin: Dr. Duke University, with 9 years of relevant experience in overseas securities market investment management, has successively worked as an investment analyst and portfolio manager in Moody's KMV, Fitch International and UBS Group AG. He joined China Merchants Fund in 2009 and is currently the director of the international business department of China Merchants Fund. To be the fund manager of China Merchants Global Resources Equity Fund.
At present, inflation is becoming a high probability event due to the huge amount of money invested by governments in the financial crisis. In the face of inflation expectations, how to maintain and increase the value of your assets? "Consider allocating some resource stocks." Zhang Yibin, director of international business department of China Merchants Fund and proposed fund manager of China Merchants global sources, said.
From the perspective of global economy, resources will always be scarce, and from the current Huaxia fund products, there are only a handful of funds that can invest in global resource listed companies, such as the China Merchants Global Resource Stock Fund, which is being issued, which is also a scarce variety.
If something is rare, its price is high-the rarer the better.
"In the top five global market value growth in the past decade, resource stocks accounted for four." Zhang Yibin said at the beginning that it is understood that these five bull stocks are Apple Computer in the United States, BHP Billiton in Australia, Petrobras in Brazil, Gazprom in Russia and Vale in Brazil.
"The opinions and practices of investment masters on the market are also in line with this trend," Zhang Yibin said. "Everyone is familiar with Soros. He has a global macro portfolio and holds a large number of resource positions. According to the data of the third quarter of last year, the oil and gas assets invested by Soros's funds reached 36%, and the raw material assets were nearly 17%, adding up to 53%. "
According to relevant data, Templeton's famous Asian Growth Fund also prefers the resource industry. In the third quarter of last year, its allocation accounted for 37% of energy and 22% of raw materials, accounting for 60% together.
Zhang Yibin analyzed, "In the short term, demand in emerging markets is strong, developed markets are beginning to show signs of recovery, and metal orders in Europe and the United States are steadily picking up; In the medium term, inflation expectations have increased, while basic materials and energy have performed well during stagflation; In the long run, the supply of resources is scarce. As the global economy goes out of the trough, the economic growth of emerging market countries promotes the rapid growth of resource demand. Because of the natural scarcity of resources, the continuous rise of demand and the increasingly serious conflict of supply bottlenecks have given the resource industry a good investment value. "
"Things are scarce and value comes from scarcity, so we focus on energy and minerals. China needs to import more than 50% copper and iron ore. Many central enterprises and private enterprises have seen this and tried their best to obtain resources overseas. For ordinary people, we provide them with investment opportunities for global high-quality resource stocks that cannot be bought in the A-share market. " Zhang Yibin concluded.
Zhang Yibin's "investment clock"
What varieties will China Merchants Global Resources Fund invest in?
"In the short term, it may focus on iron ore and coking coal," Zhang Yibin said.
He pointed out that "the overall forecast is optimistic. In the short term, due to the impact of the Greek incident and the tightening of emerging markets, investors' concerns have not completely subsided, and the risk aversion of the whole market still exists, and they may choose staged investment. The first choice is iron ore and coking coal. "
Relevant persons in the industry also pointed out that the current iron ore price has risen by 1 10%, the agreed price is likely to exceed 40%, and the future price may reach 50%~60%.
"Although iron ore is still under negotiation, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Brazil's Vale no longer want to talk about a one-year contract with China, but only a six-month contract. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto even want to talk once a quarter. 80%~90% of the global iron ore supply comes from the Big Three, so the bargaining power of domestic enterprises may not be strong. " Zhang Yibin explained.
"When the market risk aversion fades and the global economy returns to the upward channel, we expect to be optimistic about minerals and metals, but we are also considering adding new investment varieties." Zhang Yibin further elaborated his point of view, "such as oil."
"China, as the developing country with the largest economic aggregate, consumes 10% of global oil production, while the United States, as the largest developed country, consumes 30% of global oil production, so the demand for oil in developed countries is very large. When the recovery in developed countries is more obvious, the demand for oil will also increase substantially, and oil prices will also rise. " Zhang Yibin said, "In a few months, the United States will enter the tourist season. If there is no obvious change in the signs of economic recovery in the United States by then, oil is expected to have good investment opportunities. "
In addition, gold with anti-inflation function has also attracted the attention of Zhang Yibin.
"As a precious metal, gold does not have much industrial use, but it has a good hedging effect on inflation, so we will focus on it in the medium term." Zhang Yibin said.
The increase in demand for gold has also exceeded many people's expectations. "India is a major demander of gold. With the growth of GDP per capita, India's gold imports have been growing rapidly. In 2009, India imported about 30 to 35 tons of gold every month, while in 2008, the monthly import was only 8 tons. Therefore, the increase in India's demand for gold has brought about an increase in prices; In addition, China's long-term demand for gold is also considerable. The gold reserves of the United States exceed 8,000 tons, accounting for 68.7% of foreign exchange reserves, while the gold reserves of China are only 1.5%, accounting for 1.5% of foreign exchange reserves. The internationalization of the RMB requires gold reserves as the foundation. " Zhang Yibin said.
However, Zhang Yibin said, "Among precious metals, we appreciate platinum more. Platinum has both industrial and jewelry uses, and its price is at a relatively low historical level. "
A chance to go to sea
China Merchants Fund chooses the right time to go to sea.
"QDII first went to sea in 2007, just before the financial turmoil. After the baptism of the financial turmoil in 2008, the market rebounded rapidly in 2009, developed countries stabilized and the global economy recovered. The current investment environment is completely different from that in 2007. " China Merchants Fund Zhang Yibin said.
Although the foundation of economic recovery in developed countries is still not solid, it is already dawn and the global economy is beginning to pick up. This is a good investment period, and the current stock valuation is relatively low. For example, the valuation of several iron ore companies is only about 70% of the discounted net present value, which is at a historical low.
"Our global investment resources are unique. Now, the global economy has just experienced the baptism of the financial turmoil and started to stabilize, and emerging markets have seen obvious recovery. Under such circumstances, it is a good opportunity to issue China Merchants Global Resources Equity Fund. Secondly, our investment in the resource industry can provide investors with a good channel to spread risks when allocating assets. " Zhang Yibin thinks.
According to the product design requirements, China Merchants Global Resources Equity Fund accounts for 60%~ 100% of equity assets and 0%~40% of cash and bonds, mainly investing in metals and mining, traditional energy and new energy.
"We have been preparing this product for 2 years. The colleagues in the product department also referred to the opinions of many overseas investment consultants ING when designing, and the product design is very distinctive. Strong cycle industries outperform the market with a high probability when the economy goes up, and fluctuate greatly when it goes down. Therefore, China Merchants Global Resources Equity Fund not only grasps the strong cycle resource stocks, but also adjusts its positions in a timely manner and allocates defensive public utility (2 137.3 1 56.28, 2.70%) stocks to avoid the downside risks of resource stocks. Therefore, when the economy goes down, it will also set a safety mat for investors. " Zhang Yibin said.
20 10 Many investors are worried that the RMB will appreciate sharply, so there will be no exchange rate risk when investing in China Merchants global sources Fund denominated in US dollars. In this regard, Zhang Yibin said that China Merchants Global Resources Fund did not fully invest in US dollar assets. In the future, the RMB may appreciate against the US dollar, but it may not necessarily appreciate against other currencies, such as the Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar. In addition, he also explained that the fund invests in stocks, not currencies, so it should pay more attention to the gains brought by the rise of stocks. From the past history, if the fund has strong stock selection ability, the income will far exceed the exchange loss.
In addition, an overseas investment consultant with rich management experience-Holland International Group Investment Management Company is also the guarantee of Zhang Yibin's confidence source. According to public data, the ING Resource Opportunity Fund, which was established in 15 and managed by VikPitrans, the team leader, achieved an annualized rate of return of 22.9% in the last decade.