654381On October 23rd, the 3rd meeting of the 13th NPC Standing Committee decided to authorize the State Council to carry out pilot projects in real estate tax reform in some areas.
This is a short story and a big story. It has been called "Wolf" for many years. Maybe this time is really imminent. Netizens have commented: "Strong support! Let people with multiple houses pay more taxes. " "Stabilize second-hand housing transactions, levy property taxes, and return housing to residential properties." Others said, "Taxing on holding multiple properties can effectively curb hoarders and eliminate the real estate bubble." ……
So, what are their psychological expectations for buyers and sellers? Phoenix Real Estate launched a "sampling" survey of key cities in China. Let's listen to the real voice on the front line:
(The following are all pseudonyms)
0 1
Coordinates: Hangzhou
Interviewee: Wang Chuan, owner of a real estate agency.
"I have four suites and I think I just need it."
Even after several cycles of shocks, I may still be the person most concerned about policy changes. Unexplained anxiety comes not only from the fact that I will lay off a third of my staff, but also from the tight credit policy and the hanging real estate tax.
Eight years ago, after serving in the system for five years, I quit my enviable civil servant "iron rice bowl" and set up a real estate agency in the sea.
I have been to many cities and almost all popular properties. I have accumulated rich experience. In the past few years, my business can be said to be doing very well, and I have also bought several properties to improve my family's life.
Affected by the downturn of real estate, I also need to adapt to the market and downsize the original expanded team, which is a helpless choice. The property tax pilot is coming, and Hangzhou may be one of them. There must be an impact. Customers are watching.
First of all, according to Shanghai's previous property tax collection standards, the per capita property tax is 60 square meters. If it is stricter this time, it is not the large huxing that will be affected, but the small huxing. Why? Because customers cherish the room ticket of the first suite more. If the first set is very small, it will be more difficult to improve it later.
Secondly, only a few rich people can really be included in levy standard. In fact, even if there are three or four suites at home, there are many people, including the younger generation's family of three or four. Both parents are independent family subjects. I'm not rich. I have two children, and both parents are still alive. Therefore, I have four houses, which I think are just needed.
Third, of course, there is anxiety. Pilot projects will be carried out first, and will certainly be rolled out throughout the country in the future. In the long run, this is for sure. Therefore, many customers are also selling some assets that are not very good, and only keep their own high-quality properties. Even if the real estate tax comes, it can avoid unnecessary collection.
Fourth, it is always credit that hinders buyers. If the mortgage is tightened, the expectations of buyers will come down. Coupled with the real estate tax coming, several aspects will be superimposed, and the market will be cold.
Recently, the news in Hangzhou, "the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Hangzhou hit a new low in1September" made headlines, also because the wait-and-see mood of buyers increased.
Spring river plumbing duck prophet, Hangzhou should be regarded as a relatively thorough market-oriented city. The property tax pilot is just around the corner, and the impact on Hangzhou is still quite obvious.
02
Coordinates: Beijing, Shenzhen
Interviewees: Li Guoliang and Liu Youguang, real estate agents.
"Improvement can be bought with confidence and will not be affected"
"Real estate tax? Beijing has no influence, does it? Everything is normal. " In a real estate agency store in the West Third Ring Road, Lao Li did not overreact to this problem.
"I just sold two new houses last month, 1.20 flat, and the unit price is around 1 10,000, which was built in 2003." For the second-hand housing market, Lao Li said that this market is even better than the same period last year.
Lao Li refers to the previous property tax collection standards in Shanghai. "We have also studied that the average per capita is 60 square meters, and only the excess of newly purchased real estate is accepted." Lao Li said that if you want to improve, you can buy it with confidence. "It will not be affected."
Lao Li's confidence is entirely based on the experience of two existing pilot property tax cities. Since 20 1 1, both Shanghai and Chongqing have imposed real estate tax on the pilot incremental housing, and the first suite is not taxed. It also stipulates more relaxed exemption conditions for local residents (for example, Shanghai's per capita housing area is less than 60 square meters, and Chongqing can be exempted if it meets any conditions of household registration, enterprise and work).
However, during the period of 10, the average house price in Shanghai and Chongqing increased by 2.4 times. If the real estate tax is expected to stabilize housing prices, the final collection method may not be as Lao Li wishes.
In a recent report, Yuekai Securities believes that there should be four characteristics: first, the house price rises rapidly and the ratio of house price to income is high; Second, the ability of tax collection and management is relatively strong; Third, the property rights of real estate are clear; Fourth, some cities in the province took the lead in promoting under the background of prosperity.
Based on this, it is speculated that Beijing has a high probability.
"If you don't want to live in the old and broken Third Ring Road, you can buy a new house. The earlier you buy now, the less affected you will be. When the real estate tax really comes, what you buy now is not a' new purchase' in the future and is not included in the scope of collection. "
"Even if you come, be gentle." However, Lao Li's mentality is still relatively calm.
Liu Youguang has been a real estate agent in Shenzhen for many years. He said that from the transaction point of view, the transaction of new houses during the seven-day National Day holiday this year reached a record high of nearly 2,000 sets, and the market situation was normal.
However, the news of real estate tax has more or less increased the wait-and-see mood of buyers. There are many investors, and they will shoot at the right time. "Some investors are worried that multiple suites need to pay property tax every year, coupled with regulatory policies, and they are worried about the appreciation of the house. Comprehensive evaluation is not cost-effective. "
Lao Liu said that in fact, the second-hand housing market in Shenzhen is relatively unpopular, mainly due to the influence of the second-hand housing guidance price policy. At present, the news of real estate tax has little impact.
"For example, if the owner wants to sell 8 million houses and the loan amount is only 5 million, then the remaining 3 million will need to be added to the down payment in disguise. With the increase of down payment, many owners collapsed, because the price was higher than the guide price, and fewer people took over. In addition, there are bamboo shoots in the second-hand housing market, because the current' university enrollment' regulations have caused the Shenzhen school district to start another round of cooling. "
For example, Lao Liu recently quoted a price of130,000 for a 44-square-meter house in Guocheng Garden, Baihua District, but this is already the price after the owner took the initiative to drop 3 million. Also in Nantianer Garden in Baihua District, an owner changed the listing price of 88 square meters from 6.5438+0.95 million yuan to 6.5438+0.7 million yuan, a decrease of 2.5 million yuan. Last year, the listing price of 89 flat apartment in Nantianer Garden was 21-23 million yuan, and now it has dropped to 1.85 million yuan.
03
Coordinates: Beijing and Shanghai
Interviewees: Bai Yang, Jony J and multi-suite holders.
"The relocated households have the most houses, but they cannot be collected together with the relocated households."
Lao Yang said that he is not a rich class, let alone a real estate speculator. "It just happens to be a good time. At that time, my family gave me some money and bought me a suite. Later, I worked for several years and bought a big one. House prices were cheap at that time. Even if the real estate tax comes, can it be said that it is my fault? "
In the face of concerns about whether the real estate tax will be included in the scope of collection if it is officially introduced, Lao Yang said that he was at a loss. "When the time comes to listen to the policy, the state will certainly not tax the people for no reason."
Lao Yang came to Beijing in 15 and engaged in the sales of medical devices. In recent years, he bought a house, got married, had children, and then bought a house, and his life was smooth and steady. However, it is not Beijing's real estate that worries Lao Yang. In his name, there is also a house for his parents in his hometown in Henan.
"This is also for filial piety. The old man's original house is an old building, so it is inconvenient without an elevator. I changed a new house for them. With this set, I don't know if the house in my hand is out of standard. Of course, if you want to collect it at that time, it is also a city and a policy. " Lao Yang added, "The houses of relocated households are definitely the most, but they cannot be expropriated from relocated households. Therefore, we ordinary people should have nothing to worry about. "
Xiao Jia is the kind of relocated household that everyone loves, and owns three properties next to the most prosperous area in Xuhui District, Shanghai. "Our house was demolished early. When I was in primary school, it was probably in 2006. At that time, the demolition was given to three suites, and there was some compensation. "
However, when asked if the pilot property tax policy had any influence on him, Xiao Jia ridiculed himself that he was a "poor man" in Shanghai and could not reach levy standard at all.
"Three sets, but in fact, our family's situation is quite special. There are less than two houses recorded in the household registration book. Although the unit price is very high, the area is not large, and the per capita property tax is less than the threshold of 60 square meters in Shanghai. Whether there is a new real estate tax policy actually has little impact on me, and I have no real feeling about the new policy. "
A special case is that Xiao Jia just got married during May Day this year. "After the hukou is divided, there is actually only one property under my name, more than 40 square meters, which is very small. Even with the real estate under the name of my daughter-in-law, it is less than the per capita threshold of Shanghai. Unless the property tax reduces the per capita collection area and unit price, according to the current price in Xuhui District, everyone may have to pay taxes. I don't think it is possible (reduction), so I am not really worried. "
04
Coordinates: Shanghai
Interviewee: Tu Tu, brokerage analyst.
"I'm afraid the real estate tax will be stricter than before"
Tu Tu, 39 years old, is currently working as an analyst in a head brokerage firm, earning a considerable annual salary, and bought a house in full in Shanghai as early as. "My hometown is Shenzhen, and I came to work in Shanghai after graduation in 2006. At the beginning, I rented a house for two or three years and changed it frequently. I had a hard time. Later, I really couldn't stand it. At that time, the housing price in Shanghai was not as high as it is now, so I saved up for three or four years and bought my own house in Baoshan with the help of my parents. "
"According to the price and area of my first suite, the property tax is only 0.4%, which is very low and can't be paid much. However, in July, when I saw that the market situation was not very good, I wanted to invest at the bottom. I didn't expect to meet the real estate tax pilot policy when I just bought a house. " Tu Tu bluntly said that he was a little "declining" and was a little afraid that the real estate tax would be stricter than before.
"Now, although I don't know whether Shanghai will be included in the pilot city and what the pilot rules are, I'm already considering selling the house to be on the safe side, and I'm going to sell the old one and exchange it for cash. According to our analysis, the property market and the stock market are not very good now, and cash is king. " Tu Tu sighed.
But he also expressed his understanding that the real estate tax was introduced at such a time. According to his research conclusion, the mode of local finance relying on land finance in the past is bound to change, and the only way to make up for the income from land sales in the past is real estate tax.
From the experience of implementing real estate tax in the United States for 229 years, the research report of Harris School of Policy at the University of Chicago shows that real estate tax has become the most important source of income for local governments in the United States in 20021year. Cities, counties, school districts and special zones in the United States collect about $500 billion in real estate tax every year, accounting for about 70% of local taxes.
At home, the opposite is true. According to the data of China Tax Yearbook and the Ministry of Finance, the real estate tax revenue in 20 19 was 2.62 trillion yuan, accounting for 16.6% of the national tax revenue and 13.8% of the national fiscal revenue. The revenue from land transfer was 7.25 trillion yuan, accounting for 85.8% of the budget revenue of government funds.
"It is the general trend that real estate tax replaces land sales income." He said.
However, when it comes to selling a house, Tu Tu seems to have some helplessness. "These two days coincided with the weekend. I ran several intermediaries in one breath, but many intermediaries told me directly that second-hand houses are not easy to sell now, and the price reduction expectation is too strong to make loans. I suggest that I lower the expected price. "
05
Coordinates: Shanghai
Interviewee: Qiu Guang, employee of top 30 housing enterprises.
"Anxiety should also be short-lived."
Qiu Guang is an employee of a well-known real estate enterprise. Having been in the business for 20 years, I often laugh at myself as a witness of the real estate industry in China, claiming to be the person who has the most right to evaluate Hongqiao houses.
"Property tax, originally in Shanghai, has been tried for many years, and it can't be paid much according to the policy. I think even if Shanghai is listed as a pilot city for property tax, it will not be stricter than it is now. After all, the house must be affordable first. Anyway, it doesn't have much impact on me at present. "
"In fact, the real problem now is not real estate tax. Even if the real estate tax comes out, it will tax the rich more, but they probably don't care much about these thousands of dollars. The real problem is that the bank mortgage is tight and less. I wanted to change a bigger set before, and it was very slow and difficult to wait for the bank to lend money for about four months. "
What really worries Qiu Guang is the recent intensive release of real estate industry policies. "I feel that there is no good news." An online article by Weibo, an employee of a real estate company, entitled "The boss put pressure on the property, I want to cry" said that the company encountered difficulties such as tight capital flow and declining net profit in the third quarter, and the supervision of pre-sale funds became stricter, which reduced the real estate company's funds. Move space; In order to curb real estate speculation, the regulatory authorities "forced us to reduce the scale, because banks no longer lend loans, otherwise we will face severe accountability".
Qiu Guang said that although there is not much problem in his company at present, the "cold lips and cold teeth" will also be affected by the whole industry atmosphere, and it will also produce the feeling of being unemployed for no reason.
"Anxiety should also be short-lived," he said. "If the market is cold, it will be warm. Recently, the mortgage has also shown signs of loosening. Although there are not many changes, the overall situation is still good. "
According to the data monitored by RealData, in May 438+1 0, the interest rate of the mainstream first home loan in 90 cities was 5.73%, and the interest rate of the second home loan was 5.99%, both of which were lower than last month1basis point. This is the first time that the mortgage interest rate has been adjusted back from last month. Among 90 cities, mortgage interest rates in 20 cities have been lowered. Among them, the interest rate of the first home loan in 14 city decreased, the interest rate of the second home loan in 14 city decreased, and the first and second home loans in nine overlapping cities were lowered. Downgraded cities include Pearl River Delta cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Zhongshan, and Yangtze River Delta cities such as Wuxi and Huzhou.
"Regulation began to turn to the stable side. The central government has repeatedly stressed that the purpose of regulation and control is to prevent risks and ensure stability. The upcoming real estate tax will also play this role. As an ordinary practitioner, we are also witnessing and participating. " Qiu Guang is rational about the future.
Source | Phoenix Net Real Estate
Author | Chen chen
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